Italian and German steel mills signalled to buyers at a major industry event in Dusseldorf this week that they will increase their offers by €50-70/t ($59.00-82.50/t) next week.
Rising energy prices are exerting cost pressure on mills, but margins have already strengthened since recent product price hikes were introduced, and they are likely to rise further as increased protection from imports bolsters domestic producers' position in the European market.
Major price hikes may result in orders being lost because of substantial stocks of imported product still present in many European markets, but the combined effect of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs for importers, tightened EU safeguards from July, and increased energy and transport costs will ultimately push buyers to accept new levels, participants at the industry event said. "Stronger price leadership is needed from major producers," a mill source said. "It is much better in this situation to lose an order at €700/t than to lose an order at €650/t."
Another mill suggested that substantial price hikes will be accepted by mid-May. "Yes, there are import inventories, but you can never predict which rebar size you are going to run out of first," the source said.
Buyers also indicated that they were prepared for prices to jump again, on top of the €50-70/t increases already accepted since the US-Israel war with Iran started to disrupt global energy supply at the start of March. Wire rod processors expressed concern over the lack of CBAM and safeguards protection until 2028 for products further down the supply chain, which could present major difficulties for some companies in combination with the likely €100-140/t increase in wire rod prices over March and April.
German rebar producers indicated to buyers that offers next week will be around €710/t delivered, €50/t higher than traded levels in the past two weeks.
A large Italian mill said it had not made any offers this week, and that its increase next week would likely be higher than €50/t, following last week's official offer price, not yet accepted by buyers, of €680/t ex-works. Recent traded prices in the Italian domestic market have been closer to €650/t ex-works, while offers were noted on Friday from major Italian producers at €670-680/t delivered in Poland, with truck costs likely to be well above €60/t.
