Several biomass power producers in Japan have been trying to secure more biomass fuels than usual through bilateral negotiations, because of an uncertain market outlook caused by the war in Middle East, to avoid any prolonged impact of rising upstream costs.
A Japanese independent power producer (IPP) recently purchased several cargoes of Indonesian palm kernel shells (PKS), amounting to over 200,000t. The prices were in a wide range of $93-102/t fob east coast Sumatra, to be loaded in early May to late December. The reason for such a sizeable volume of procurement is to mitigate the risk of unstable market environment, the company said.
The IPP has also secured considerable volumes of wood pellets for the same reason from Malaysia, Indonesia and China, to meet its spot demand for this year. The company has been struggling with the quality of Vietnamese wood pellets. The company purchased fewer spot cargoes of wood pellets than PKS, because most of its wood pellet supplies to biomass-fired power plants in Japan is fulfilled through term contracts.
Another power producer sought to procure 80,000-100,000t of wood pellets to meet its spot demand for the whole of this year, with the aim to avoid the market uncertainty caused by the conflict, a market source said.
Some consumers are also likely to do the same, mainly in PKS markets, while other companies are following their initial procurement schedule, according to traders.
Argus assessed the Indonesian market for PKS that meets Japan's feed in tariff (FiT) requirements at $100.06/t fob east coast Sumatra on 29 April, while the price for Malaysian PKS that complies with Japan's FiT requirements were assessed at $93.71/t fob peninsular Malaysia.
The Vietnamese market for pellets that meet Japan's FiT requirements was assessed at $151.40/t fob Vietnam on 29 April. Bulk freight rates from Vietnam to Japan were in a very wide range of $25-45/t, while fuel costs were still volatile because of the war in the Middle East.
Rising operating costs
Biomass buyers fear that rising upstream costs may persist because of the inflationary impact that the US-Iran war has had on gasoil, bunker fuel and freight costs. Crude palm oil (CPO) prices in Indonesia have also risen due to the war and a weak harvest season.
PKS is a by-product of CPO mills and its availability depends on the harvest of palm fresh fruit bunches and the production of CPO. PKS export taxes are based on CPO prices, which have exceeded over $1,000/t in May. This has led to a $10/t export tax for this month. PKS exporters will also need to pay a levy of $5/t, bringing the total cost of tax and levy to $15/t in May, the highest level in almost four years. It was last higher at $16/t in July 2022.
Tax and levy rates averaged around $10.60/t in 2025. The nearly $5/t increase means shipments would cost around $44,000-88,000 more on an fob basis for 10,000-20,000t PKS cargoes to Japan.
Rising fuel prices in Indonesia and Malaysia, which are major PKS exporting countries, have weighed on operating costs of suppliers, because they must collect PKS from CPO mills by truck. Heavy machinery, barges, and screeners, which are used in the PKS industry, are also exposed to higher fuel prices, and total operating costs are currently higher by 25-35pc than before, market participants said.
Meanwhile, some of sellers were willing to compromise on PKS prices to align with buyer expectations to clear stockpiles. Japanese trading firms face rising freight rates stemming from the US-Iran war and are asking sellers to reduce fob prices to help offset that effect, according to market sources.
In the Vietnamese wood pellet market, recent offer prices from suppliers for Japanese biomass-fired power plants have been likely $160/t or higher on fob basis. But bidding prices by Japanese buyers seem the same as before the war, around $140-150/t on fob basis, resulting in limited spot liquidity. This has prompted some buyers to source cargoes in other countries.
