German diesel demand rose in 2025 for the first time in six years, signalling a recovery in industrial activity after a prolonged period of economic weakness, latest data from the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (Bafa) show. But the current conflict in the Middle East could yet reverse this nascent trend.
The rise in diesel demand reflects a modest rebound in economic activity. After two consecutive years of recession, Germany's economy returned to growth last year, expanding by 0.2pc, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The downturn had been triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which pushed energy prices sharply higher across Europe — and especially in Germany. Higher costs weighed heavily on domestic industry, with the chemicals sector particularly affected. As a result, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.9pc in 2023 and by 0.5pc in 2024 (see chart).
Prolonged economic weakness over this period also depressed diesel demand. Lower industrial output reduces transport needs for intermediate goods and finished products, cutting truck movements and, in turn, diesel consumption. This pattern is evident in Bafa fuel data. After the Covid-19 crisis caused a sharp fall in diesel demand in 2020 and 2021, consumption fell again in 2022 and declined further in 2023 and 2024. The increase recorded in 2025 therefore marks the first reversal in diesel demand since 2019 (see chart).
It appears unlikely, however, that the recovery will be sustained this year in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices since late February. GDP in the first quarter of 2026 rose by 0.5pc year on year, according to Destatis, but the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWE) says the performance was largely driven by positive momentum before the war started.
Destatis' truck mileage index and data from the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) both point to a marked deterioration in economic conditions in March. BMWE attributes the slowdown mainly to higher energy and raw material costs, compounded by disruptions to supply chains for intermediate goods.
