National pledges fall short of pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C this century by more than 5bn t of CO2 removal (CDR)/yr by 2050, a report published today found.
Authors of the third annual state of CDR report today flagged the "fragility" of the sector, given the small number of countries with dedicated CDR policies, and of project developers and projects. The failure of a project, or policy changes, therefore risk slowing progress globally, report author Morgan Edwards from the University of Wisconsin-Madison said.
The gap between what countries have pledged in their climate plans under the Paris Agreement — nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — and what will be necessary is likely to grow "significantly" over the years, report author William Lamb of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
Most countries' pledges rely on forests and land, Lamb said, with newer technologies playing only a small role. Delays in cutting emissions would make this gap even larger, Lamb warned.
Countries have in total pledged around 2.7bn t of CDR by 2035 and about 3.6bn t by 2050, which would leave a shortfall of more than 5bn t in 2050, Lamb said.
Closing this gap would require CDR to grow at rates comparable to, or faster than, solar power and electric vehicles, the report found.
Cutting emissions remains the first and most important priority for tackling climate change, the authors emphasised, but CDR capacity is needed to address emissions that are hardest to eliminate.
CDR is fundamental to return global warming to 1.5°C or below after an overshoot, report author Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs said. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to below 2°C above the pre-industrial average and pursues a 1.5°C threshold.
The report is "agnostic" and is not about "telling countries what to do", Geden said, but is more about raising demand and creating incentives. If a country has a net zero target, then its policies should reflect this, Geden said.
There should be more robust demand for high-quality removals credits on the voluntary carbon market, report author Matthew Gidden of the University of Maryland said. Having more transparent and scientifically based monitoring, reporting and verification protocols would increase confidence in removal credits, Gidden said.
More countries should "activate CDR in their NDCs" and in their climate policies in general, Juho Lipponen, co-ordinator of global initiatives the carbon capture, use and storage clean energy ministerial and the Mission Innovation for CDR said in reaction to the report.
