The rise in global temperature is projected to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the limit sought by the Paris climate agreement — "in about four years", an international team of more than 70 scientists said today.
"Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C" in 2025, compared with the 1850-1900 average, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report found. The Paris agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit.
"The rate at which heat is accumulating in the earth system suggests high levels of future warming", the report found. "The rate of human-induced warming remains at the all-time high of around 0.27°C per decade, driven primarily by record-high greenhouse gas levels."
It estimated the remaining global carbon budget — the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted before the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded — is 130bn t/CO2, from the start of 2026. This estimate, which is a central one, "will be exhausted in around three years at current levels of CO2 emissions", the report found.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high 56.8bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, according to the report, "mainly from the burning of fossil fuels."
"Although we still have record high levels of emissions, the growth of those CO2 emissions is slowing," the EU Copernicus programme's strategic lead for climate Samantha Burgess said today. "That doesn't mean we're on track yet, but it does mean that policy, technology, and societal choices are starting to bend the curve."
Burgess was speaking at climate talks underway in Bonn, Germany, hosted by UN climate body the UNFCCC.
El Nino weather conditions have now developed in the tropical Pacific, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed today. The weather pattern, which is naturally-occurring, typically leads to higher global temperatures.
Current forecasting suggest it is "likely to be a very strong event", the UK's Met Office said today. Some forecasts suggest "values that would be of record strength", the Met Office said.
"It is also highly likely that the El Nino will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850", Met Office head of long-range forecasting Adam Scaife said.
The hottest year on record to date is 2024. The past three years, 2023-25, are the hottest three years recorded. The average temperature across 2023-25 was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels — with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C — data consolidated by the World Meteorological Organisation show.
