India may need to produce an extra 17.7TWh of electricity from fossil fuels over the next year if a developing El Nino boosts cooling demand and cuts wind and hydropower output, according to a report by energy think-tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Higher temperatures linked to El Nino are expected to add around 10TWh to cooling-related power demand during July 2026-June 2027, while weaker wind speeds and lower hydropower output could increase the generation shortfall to 17.7TWh, the 6 July report said. If the shortfall is met primarily by coal-fired power plants, the power sector could emit an additional 17mn t of CO2 over the period. Under a more severe scenario, the generation deficit could widen to 24TWh, CREA said.
India's energy system is likely to face the strongest impact globally, as El Nino is expected to cut wind and hydropower output while increasing cooling-related power demand, CREA said.
The report comes as India's thermal power fleet is already operating at elevated levels. Coal and other thermal power stations generated 122.37TWh of electricity in June, up by 12.5pc on year, while average thermal plant load factor rose to 72.3pc from 66.6pc in June 2025, according to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data. Coal-fired generation accounted for around 86pc of conventional electricity produced last month.
Coal consumption at power plants remained robust, with generators consuming 2.34mn t of coal on 6 July while maintaining stocks of 43.05mn t, according to the CEA's daily coal stock report.
Hydropower generation fell by about 20pc on the year to 13.36TWh in June from 16.78TWh in June 2025, while nuclear generation rose to 5.55TWh from 4.50TWh over the same period.
Hydropower generation has already weakened as below-normal monsoon rainfall affected water availability, with the India Meteorological Department reporting a 42pc cumulative rainfall deficit during 1-24 June.
India's installed power generation capacity stood at 543.1GW in early July, comprising 251.5GW of thermal capacity, 230.8GW of renewable energy, 52.1GW of hydropower and 8.8GW of nuclear, National Power Portal data show. Including small hydropower projects, the country's total hydropower capacity exceeds 56GW, according to government data.
India added 44.6GW of solar capacity in 2025, nearly doubling from the previous year, data from CREA show. Quicker deployment of battery energy storage systems (Bess), more flexible grids and higher solar generation would be key to cutting reliance on fossil-fuel power when renewable output weakens. The government issued guidelines for small hydropower projects under a 25.85bn rupees ($272mn) programme aimed at supporting the sector in June.
The projected El Nino will test India's power system as extreme weather becomes more common, with Bess deployment and grid modernisation likely to shape its resilience to future climate shocks, CREA said.
