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Latest market news

Argentina inflation quckens in June

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 15/07/26

Argentina's inflation accelerated to an annual 33.5pc in June, the highest so far this year.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose from 33.2pc in May and 32.4pc in April, which matched January's number, the statistics agency Indec reported. The latest figure was down from 39.4pc in June 2025.

Prices in the food/beverages category, which accounted for nearly one-quarter of the overall annual headline gain, were up an annual 34.4pc in June, compared with 33.4pc in May.

Prices in transportation, with the second largest weighting on the overall gain, continued to be influenced by the conflict in the Mideast Gulf and were up 42.1pc in June, similar to the previous month.

Prices in the hospitality sector increased 36.7pc through June, down from 37.3pc the previous month, while housing/utilities costs were at 47.8pc, down a notch from 48pc in May.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.9pc in June, down from 2.1pc in May and 2.6pc in April. It peaked at 3.4pc in March for the year.

President Javier Milei's government forecast inflation at 10pc for the year, a target it is unlikely to meet. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts inflation at 30.4pc this year. Argentina, the IMF's largest creditor with a debt of $42.5bn, more than one-third the IMF's total outstanding loans of $122.8bn.

By Lucien Chauvin

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13/07/26

Brazil corn: Export market remains adrift

Brazil corn: Export market remains adrift

Sao Paulo, 13 July (Argus) — Port differentials in Brazil's corn export market continue to lack a single trend, with market participants largely uninterested in the grain. Brazil's corn export market is struggling with a wide offer-bid gap. Buyers expect prices to fall further as harvesting of the 2025-26 winter corn crop advances amid expectations for ample production. They prioritize purchases of the cheaper Argentinian grain in the meantime. But sellers say that prices should move in the opposite direction, with a record demand forecast for the current 2025-26 season sustaining them at firm levels. The export market would have to raise bids to compete with the domestic sector, which is on track to consume all-time high volumes of corn thanks to the growing corn ethanol industry. Sellers are also unwilling to cap offers much further to attract international buyers. Farmers acquired the grain at higher levels, while high transportation and operational costs tighten margins. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Ukraine grain yields remain high as harvest accelerates

13/07/26
News
13/07/26

Ukraine grain yields remain high as harvest accelerates

Kyiv, 13 July (Argus) — Ukrainian farmers have accelerated the 2026-27 winter grain harvest, with barley yields reaching record highs and wheat yields remaining significantly above historical averages. Farmers had harvested 318,650 hectares (ha) of barley, or 22pc of the 1.48mn ha forecast area, as of 13 July, according to data from the economy ministry. Barley output has reached 1.4mn t at an an average yield of 4.41 t/ha, a record at this stage of the campaign, beating the previous peak of 4.29 t/ha in 2021 and well above the 3.3-3.5 t/ha registered in 2023-25. Market participants said rapid progress and high yields are likely to increase immediate physical availability on the domestic market. The wheat harvest has reached 157,350ha, or 3pc of the 5.13mn ha forecast total, producing 615,740t at an average yield of 3.91 t/ha. The wheat yields are the second highest on record for this stage of harvesting, remaining well above the 2022-25 range and surpassed only by a bumper crop in 2021. These early results support the Argus production forecast of 24.1mn t for the 2026-27 season, although high yields continue to raise concerns about potential protein dilution in the winter wheat crop. The rapeseed harvest has reached 76,970ha, or 6pc of the 1.32mn ha forecast area, with 149,070t collected at an average yield of 1.94 t/ha. The current yields are among the lowest for this stage of the campaign in five years, trailing the 2.20-2.30 t/ha recorded in 2021 and 2024. But these figures are not yet representative of the final outcome, given the limited progress of the harvest. A wave of warm and dry weather is expected in most regions this week, according to the Ukrainian weather centre. Daytime temperatures in southern and eastern regions are forecast to reach 32-35°C, while central and western areas will see daily highs of 26-30°C. Dry conditions will help the rapid progress of the winter grain harvest across all regions, although the lack of significant rainfall may reduce soil moisture for spring crops such as corn and sunflowers, which are at critical stages of development. Market participants said official figures continue to reflect a reporting lag, with real-time field progress estimated to be further ahead. By Alexey Yeromin Ukraine barley yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Ukraine wheat yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Ukraine rapeseed yields for same harvested area t/ha/ ha Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.64pc in June

10/07/26
News
10/07/26

Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.64pc in June

Sao Paulo, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil's inflation slowed to an annual 4.64pc in June, with lower motor fuel prices helping offset higher electricity bills. The consumer price index IPCA decelerated from 4.72pc in May , national statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, after accelerating from 4.39pc in April. Housing costs, appointed as the largest contributors to the monthly gain in the index in June, decelerated to 5.85pc from 6.22pc a month earlier, mostly thanks to electricity bills and tax readjustments for power supply in some southern states. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, contributed the most with the monthly decrease in the IPCA, decelerating to an annual 3.82pc in June from 3.87pc in May. Lower prices for coffee, fruits and meat drove the result, IBGE said. Transport costs slowed to 3.95pc in the month from 4.05pc in May. Lower prices for ethanol, diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas (CNG) weighed on motor fuel costs, despite an increase in airfares. The annual gain for June was down from 5.35pc in June 2025. Inflation expectations, as calculated by the central bank's Focus survey, remain above target at 5.3pc for 2026 and recently ticked up to 4.18pc for 2027. Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.25pc in June. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU could face tighter rapeseed supply in 2026-27

10/07/26
News
10/07/26

EU could face tighter rapeseed supply in 2026-27

London, 10 July (Argus) — The EU rapeseed sector is facing a second year of low supply from the world's top exporters, at a time when the impact of unfavourable weather on crops in parts of Europe could increase the bloc's reliance on imports. Cold weather in spring and several heatwaves in Europe in the past two months could result in an EU rapeseed crop of below 20mn t in a low-case scenario, down from the 20.4mn t currently forecast by Argus analytics for the 2026-27 marketing year that started on 1 July. A 20.2mn t EU rapeseed crop for the 2025-26 marketing year meant that the bloc was largely able to offset lower supply and uncompetitive prices from its top global suppliers. But the EU's import options in 2026-27 remain limited for the second year in a row. Australian canola output could fall to 6.35mn t in the 2026-27 marketing year starting on 1 November from 7.76mn t a year earlier, while exports could decline by 500,000t on the year to 4.9mn t in the upcoming season, Argus projected. A strong El Nino weather pattern that could develop this growing season poses a high risk to yields from dry, hot weather in Australia's main canola-producing regions. El Nino has not yet caused any adverse effects, and growing conditions have been favourable so far, supported by adequate rainfall, but yields may still fall as a result of lower fertiliser application in recent months, owing to Australia being one of the countries most affected by fertiliser supply disruptions and price increases caused by the US-Iran war. Australia may also direct rising volumes of its canola to China in the coming months. At present, only some state-owned firms in China are permitted to import Australian canola, but market participants expect China to soon open the market to private crushers as well. If so, China could increasingly switch from Canadian canola to Australian origin, potentially leaving less Australian supply available to the EU. As for Canada's exports to the EU, supply is uncertain because of Canada's growing domestic crush sector, supported by strong demand for canola oil from US biofuel producers. Argus forecasts Canada's canola exports at 8mn t in the 2026-27 year starting 1 August, down from 8.5mn t a year earlier, despite expectations of higher output next season, as producers struggle to keep up with growing demand from crushers. Ukraine is expected to see just a marginal increase in rapeseed output and exports in 2026-27, according to Argus forecasts. Export duties and strong demand from Ukrainian crushers — market participants expect the crush sector to process 1.5mn t of rapeseed this year, even higher than last year's surge to 1.2mn t — mean the domestic market could absorb all additional rapeseed. As a result, EU imports of Ukrainian rapeseed oil (RSO) could continue to rise. The EU imported 523,000t of RSO in 2025-26, up from 320,000t a year earlier. Ukraine accounted for the bulk of the volume at 354,000t, European Commission data show, with the EU being the main export destination for Ukrainian RSO. EU rapeseed imports at four-year low in 2025-26 EU rapeseed imports fell to 5.4mn t in 2025-26, down by 29pc on the year and the lowest since 2021-22, commission data show. EU imports from all its main suppliers fell, with receipts from Australia — the largest source of imported rapeseed to the EU — showing the steepest decline ( see table ). A relatively large rapeseed crop within the EU made imports less attractive, with Australian canola particularly uncompetitive against the EU's own rapeseed earlier in the season and later in spring 2026, when the US-Iran war pushed up freight rates. Australia directed canola elsewhere, stepping up exports to the UAE and restarting shipments to China at the end of 2025. The EU's imports of Ukrainian rapeseed also fell sharply, after an export duty on Ukrainian rapeseed introduced in September 2025 redirected more of the country's production to the domestic crush sector. EU imports of Canadian canola also declined in 2025-26, but Canada increased its share of the EU rapeseed market by around one percentage point at the expense of Australian and Ukrainian market shares ( see charts ). Canada is typically the EU's third-largest source of imported rapeseed, and competitive prices in December prompted a wave of purchases to top up supply within the bloc. Some smaller exporters, including Moldova, also increased their supplies to the EU in 2025-26. Moldovan exports to the bloc could rise further this season because the country is expecting a larger crop. By Nataliia Haisonok EU rapeseed imports 000t 2025-26 2024-25 ±% Australia 2,143 3,608 -41 Ukraine 1,596 2,410 -34 Canada 874 1,132 -23 Moldova 274 105 161 Serbia 138 70 97 Other 369 222 66 Total 5,394 7,547 -29 — European Commission EU rapeseed imports by origin in 2025-26 % EU rapeseed imports by origin in 2024-25 % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

French farmers receive €50/t to buy nitrogen until Sep

09/07/26
News
09/07/26

French farmers receive €50/t to buy nitrogen until Sep

London, 9 July (Argus) — The French government today announced financial support for farmers to buy nitrogen fertilizers, with payments of at least €50/t for purchases until the end of September. The scheme aims to offset price increases since the start of the war in the Middle East, and to "preserve our productive capacities and secure the 2027 harvests", the government said. The announcement already triggered increased farmer buying of fertilizers today. Farmers will receive at least €50/t for purchases of straight nitrogen fertilizers. Where fertilizers account for more than 10pc of a farmer's operating costs, the payments rise to €70/t. Payments are capped at 50pc of farmers' nitrogen consumption from 2025. The scheme applies to purchases between 1 June and 30 September. At the end of the period, a report will review the fertilizer price development. The European Commission has allocated €107mn for the payments, which France may top up to a total of €145mn. Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe rose significantly after the start of the war. French granular urea prices rose by 50pc between the end of February and mid-April, to an average of €753/t fca. Prices then fell below pre-war prices again, to €470/t fca by 2 July, but are now once again on the rise. By Claudia Wlk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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