Argus has lowered its estimate for France's 2026 wheat crop (not including durum wheat) to 30.80mn t, reflecting a week-long survey of major French co-operatives and grain market participants over 13-17 July.
The revised estimate reflects a deterioration in crop conditions since the Argus crop tour in June, when Argus issued its previous forecast of 32.29mn t.
Argus' latest production estimate is based on a national average yield at 6.67 t/ha, down 6.5pc from the 10-year Olympic average, which excludes the two highest and two lowest yields of the period. Hot and dry weather conditions over recent months curtailed yield potential and accelerated the development of winter grains, leading to an earlier-than-usual harvest. Harvesting is now largely complete across France, except in western Brittany and along the northwestern coastal regions.
Argus' production estimate is 1.20mn t below the projection published by French agriculture ministry Agreste on 15 July. The largest discrepancy between the two comes from estimates for wheat yields in Hauts-de-France, the country's top wheat-producing region, which is set to account for nearly 20pc of national output for the 2026-27 wheat marketing year (July-June). Argus estimates the region's average yield at 8.12 t/hectare (t/ha), compared with 8.55 t/ha in the Agreste forecast.
Participants in Argus' harvest survey reported yields in Hauts-de-France at around 7pc below the region's 10-year Olympic average. Hot and dry conditions during May and June reduced crop potential during the key flowering and grain-filling stages.
The survey also confirmed that the sharpest yield declines were in areas surrounding the port of La Pallice on the Atlantic coast. In this zone, which includes the departments of Vendee, Deux-Sevres, Vienne, Charente and Charente-Maritime, average yields are estimated to be 15pc below the 10-year Olympic average. Excessive winter rainfall followed by an exceptionally dry spring created unfavourable conditions for the region's crop. Despite lower yields, survey participants reported no significant quality concerns and on the contrary reported a higher-than-usual average protein content in the region.
Small crop cuts export potential
France's 2026 wheat crop is set to be one of the smallest of the past two decades (see chart), but remains above the 25.17mn t produced in 2024, when both planted area and yields declined sharply, and above the 29.21mn t in 2020, a season marked by very low areas.
This year, greater harvest areas, estimated by Agreste at 4.62mn ha, up 2.7pc on the year, have partially offset a decline in yields.
The downward revision to French production inevitably raises questions over export availability. Based on Agreste's crop estimate, national agriculture agency FranceAgriMer published its first full 2026-27 supply-and-demand forecasts on 16 July, projecting French wheat exports (excluding durum) to countries outside of the EU at 7mn t, down by 400,000t from 2025-26. This would be the lowest level since the 2024-25 and 2016-17 marketing years. Argus' lower production estimate points to even lower exportable supply. The outlook is further complicated by expectations of a drop in French corn production this year, which could increase demand for wheat and barley as substitutes in the animal feed sector, further tightening the balance sheet.
