USDA reduces forecast for US corn output, yields

Market: Biofuels, Fertilizers, Oil products
11/10/12

Houston, 11 October (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today estimated corn production yields for the US 2012-13 harvest would be lower than market expectations, and also revised down the projected levels of corn production.

The USDA predicted this year's crop will yield 122 bushels/acre in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), down by 1 bushel/acre from trader expectations. In its September report, the USDA projected a yield of 122.8 bushels/acre. The yield estimate for last year's crop stands at 147.2 bushels/acre.

Overall production of corn was revised down by 21mn bushels to 10.7bn bushels. While this result was bearish compared to market expectations of 10.6bn bushels, corn futures surged this morning. The USDA reduced corn carryover more than expected to 619mn bushels, down 114mn from last month's estimated 733mn bushels.

December Cbot corn futures traded as high as 772.50c/bushel in early morning trade, or 36c above the opening price.

Corn used for ethanol was predicted unchanged at 4.5bn bushels, compared to 5bn bushels in the 2011-12 harvest, the USDA said.

Global corn production for this harvest was lowered 2mm t with reductions seen in the US and Europe.

Oilseed production in the US was revised in contrast to corn, as output was projected 6.2mn t higher at 88.2mn t. Higher harvested area and yield brought on a 226mn bushel increase in US soybean production to 2.86bn bushels, the agency said.

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12/12/25

Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

Houston, 12 December (Argus) — The Government of Quebec extended the validity of Canada-based Arianne Phosphate's development approval for two more years while the emerging phosphate mining company pursues a longer extension request for its project in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region. Arianne's Lac à Paul project was granted its initial development in December 2015 from the Quebec government with a valid period of 10 years. The project aims to develop phosphate deposits that will produce a "high-quality" igneous apatite concentrate grading 39pc P2O5 with little to no contaminants, according to Arianne. The Quebec minister will use the two-year period to consider Arianne's request for up to a five-year development extension. Conversations between Arianne and the Ministry of Environment began in 2024 for a permit extension, where several required studies were submitted, the company said. "This extension provides the industry and potential partners with the comfort they need to advance the project's development and address the need for this critical mineral," chief operating officer Raphael Gaudreault said. The Lac à Paul project is the only fully permitted greenfield phosphate project in North America. The phosphate deposit's igneous rock allows for easy transformation of its high-purity, low contaminant phosphate concentrate into purified phosphoric acid, a necessary ingredient for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, Arianne said. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA ups global crude runs forecast, driven by OECD

11/12/25

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11/12/25

IEA ups global crude runs forecast, driven by OECD

London, 11 December (Argus) — The IEA has increased its forecast for global refinery runs for 2026, driven by a rise in OECD runs in response to strong refining economics, continuing loss of Russian supply of products and a growing global crude oil surplus. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the agency increased its forecast for global crude runs in 2026 by 250,000 b/d to 84.4mn b/d. The IEA predicts crude runs in the OECD of 36.2mn b/d next year, up from 35.6mn b/d in its previous OMR. That increase means the organisation forecasts that OECD runs will drop by only 110,000 b/d on the year in 2026, despite an overall 860,000 b/d drop in OECD refining capacity in 2025-26. Strong refining margins particularly boosted European throughput in October, and the IEA expects that to continue into next year. Refinery profitability has reached the highest in recent weeks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, caused by strong rises in crude supply and unexpected tightness in product markets, especially in middle distillates and gasoline. European throughput will reach 95pc of capacity next year, the IEA said. The IEA nudged up forecast runs in OECD Americas by 180,000 b/d to 19.2mn b/d. Higher refining margins should boost US throughput in the first half of next year, with further support found from increasing reliability in Mexican refineries. The IEA forecasts non-OECD runs at 48.2mn b/d, down from 48.5mn b/d in its previous report. Delays to the start-up of refineries in India, Iran and Angola — as well as ongoing works at KPC's al Zour refinery in Kuwait — weighed on forecast throughput. The body trimmed its forecast for Chinese runs in 2026, but said higher floating inventories of cheaper Russian and Iranian crude in Asia could cause Chinese runs and exports to rise next year. Predicted Eurasian runs held steady at 6.1mn b/d despite throughput falling to a three-year low in October. Preliminary reports suggest Russian runs recovered in November, the IEA said. Diesel supplies by pipeline for export from Russian ports could rise by 20pc on the month to 2.1mn t in December, traders said. Sanctions could provide further support to margins in 2026, the IEA said. That includes US sanctions on Russian and Iranian exports, as well as EU sanctions on products derived from Russian crude. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI

11/12/25

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11/12/25

Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) expects US president Donald Trump does not intend to reinstate reciprocal tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizer products after previously commenting he could. Earlier this week when asked what action the Trump administration may take to bolster domestic fertilizer output and the US's reliance on imports from countries like Canada, Trump relayed that the US could impose severe tariffs "if we have to" and with those tariffs the US could be making its own fertilizer "very soon." "Based on information that we have at this time, including conversations with USDA officials, these comments do not indicate a change in current policy," TFI said Wednesday. "An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trading environment with key partners like Canada is vital to maintaining a stable, affordable supply of the crop nutrients US growers rely on," TFI noted. Following Trump's comments, several market participants agreed that it seemed unlikely tariffs would be reimposed on Canadian fertilizer imports given their status of being USMCA compliant and that tariffs would do little to improve the near-term fertilizer production outlook. The fertilizer market is "numb" to these kinds of comments, one distributor said. On a nutrient basis the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023; 15pc of imports came from Canada, according to estimates from TFI. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. Also, 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

11/12/25

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11/12/25

Commodity rail shippers push for more train data

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — Industrial shippers of commodities like grain and petrochemicals want federal regulators to widen the scope of proposed rules that would require Class I railroads to report more data on their on-time service performance. US rail regulator the Surface Transportation Board (STB) in September put the industry on notice that it intends to issue rules to require that each of the six biggest railroads, including Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, report two new categories of performance data to the agency. The first would benchmark railroads' shipments against their original estimated time of arrival (OETA) and the second would measure "industry spot and pull" data, or ISP, to determine whether shipments are picked up and delivered within their planned service window. The board action aims to address rail shippers' long-running concerns that unpredictable rail service is a wild card in their supply chains, as many shippers rely nearly completely on rail to get their goods to market. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), an industry group that lobbies for US refiners and petrochemical manufacturers, applauded the STB for working to address "chronic freight rail service failures." The OETA is meant to track a carrier's targeted arrival time when it dispatches a cargo and then flag the percentage of weekly shipments that reach their destinations no later than 24 hours after an intended target, the STB said in its proposal. The AFPM, whose members include companies like Dow, Occidental Chemical and Ineos who collectively ship about 2.5mn carloads a year, said OETA data should be broken out by region, terminal, and corridor "to reveal localized bottlenecks often masked by system averages." As proposed, the STB's OETA measurement would apply to manifest train service, where trains haul an assortment of railcar types, and not to unit trains, which exclusively haul one railcar type or bulk commodity, such as coal, grain or crude. Grain shippers and the US Department of Agriculture disagreed with the STB's decision to exclude unit train shipments from the OETA measurement. The National Grain and Feed Association, whose members include Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and other biofuels makers, said that late unit train deliveries of commodities like grain, ethanol or coal "can result in proportionally greater harm to the shipper/receiver" than smaller manifest shipments. The USDA agreed that unit train shipments should be included in the OETA measurement, and pointed out that about 75pc of US railed corn and soybean shipments in 2023 traveled in trains hauling more than 75 railcars, which would not be captured by manifest shipment data. Demand for agricultural products is highly seasonal, and missed delivery windows "can halt processing lines, disrupt export programs, and force shippers to carry excess private car inventory to buffer uncertainty," the agency said. The Association of American Railroads (AAR), which lobbies on behalf of Class I railroads, pushed back on industry requests to widen the OETA to include unit train shipments, and told the STB that several railroads do not currently generate the metrics. Adding the reporting requirements "would add regulatory burden, waste resources, and misrepresent service on the network," the AAR said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German B7 diesel premiums surge on quota rise

11/12/25

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11/12/25

German B7 diesel premiums surge on quota rise

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USDA reduces forecast for US corn output, yields

Related news posts

Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

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IEA ups global crude runs forecast, driven by OECD

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