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EIA says US coal consumption rising

  • Market: Coal, Electricity, Emissions, Freight
  • 10/09/13

Washington, 10 September (Argus) — Coal consumption by the US power sector is expected to keep growing the rest of this year and end up higher than last year, the Energy Information Administration(EIA) said.

Consumption will increase by 5.8pc from 2012 to 942mn short tons (854.5mn metric tonnes). In 2014, consumption is expected to grow more moderately, at a rate of 1.8pc to 959mn st, it said.

EIA estimated that total coal consumption for the first half of 2013 was 446mn st, a 36mn st and 8.7pc jump over the amount of coal consumed in the first six months of 2012.

“The increase was primarily a result of consumption growth in the electric power sector because of higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices,” EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Most of the consumption growth is expected to come from utility inventory draws, as July saw a significant reduction in coal inventories. In the first half of 2013, total coal inventories fell by 19mn st and EIA forecasts 9mn st of withdrawals in the second half of the year.

US coal production was 88.9mn st in July, the largest monthly total since August 2012 and up 3pc from that period. In July, coal production grew 3pc in Appalachia and 4.8pc in the western region, and also increased slightly in the Illinois Basin.

EIA said it projects higher production in all regions in the second half of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012, with total coal production coming to just over 1.013bn st in 2013. Coal production is forecast to grow 3pc in 2014 to 1.044bn st as inventories stabilize and consumption increases.

In the first half of 2013 exports were 61.3mn st, 4.9mn st lower than the same period last year. Exports are expected to decline over the rest of the year, totaling 54mn st, 6mn st less than last year.

Continuing economic weakness in Europe, the largest regional importer of US coal, slowing Asian demand growth, increasing supply in other coal-exporting countries and falling international coal prices are the primary reasons for the expected decline in US exports, EIA said.

Coal prices for electric power are projected to fall for the first time since 2000, from $2.40/mmBtu average in 2012 to $2.36/mmBtu in 2013. In 2014 coal prices are expected to average $2.39/mmBtu.

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