European crop outlook: Ukraine, Romania and France trends
European and Black Sea crop outlook: Ukraine, Romania and France adapt to weather and market pressures
The 2025–26 season is reshaping agriculture across Europe and the Black Sea region. Argus crop tours and market intelligence reveal how weather extremes, profitability shifts and policy changes are influencing production and trade flows for grains and oilseeds.
Ukraine: corn recovery and oilseed expansion
Despite the ongoing conflict and challenging weather, Ukrainian farmers remain resilient. Wheat production has stayed above 20mn t for the fourth consecutive season, although regional losses persist in the south and east of the country. Corn is rebounding: planted areas and yields are up, with exports projected to rise by 5mn t compared with last year. However, delayed harvesting and strong global competition from the Americas are limiting price gains.
Oilseed trends mirror this adaptability. Sunflower acreage dropped sharply after 2022, while rapeseed and soybeans expanded. Sunflower seed production in Ukraine in 2025-26 declined because of this summer’s dry and hot conditions. Rapeseed output is forecast to recover in 2026–27, but government interventions — such as proposed export taxes — have introduced volatility into European rapeseed pricing.
Romania: record wheat crop
Romania is posting a record wheat harvest this year, with yields at 5.2 t/hectare (ha) and output reaching 12.2mn t. Farmers are shifting towards winter crops after the poor performance of spring crops, particularly maize on non-irrigated land. Heavy rainfall could delay sowing, but improved soil moisture offers hope for next season.
France: Export challenges and margin shifts
In France, wheat production has rebounded after two rain-soaked years, boosting export potential. Yet competition is fierce: China is absent from global wheat buying, Algeria is diversifying origins, and Argentina and Black Sea origins are challenging French wheat in north Africa. Margins tell the story — rapeseed outperforms wheat and barley, reinforcing the EU-wide trend towards oilseeds. Argus projects EU rapeseed acreage to rise by 12pc in 2026–27, although upside potential remains limited compared with Black Sea countries.
Market outlook
The interplay of weather risks, policy shifts, and profitability trends is accelerating structural changes in crop choices. Oilseeds are gaining share across the Black Sea region and the EU, while wheat faces headwinds from rising costs and export uncertainty. For buyers and sellers alike, Argus AgriMarkets Outlook provides the data and analysis needed to navigate these evolving markets.
Author name: Angelika Melikian, Senior Editorial Analyst, Agriculture
