Atlantic LNG: TFDE east of Suez rates climb
Day rates for tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) LNG vessels chartered on a spot basis in the Pacific basin rose to $66,000/d on Monday, above rates for vessels fixed in the Atlantic basin.
Tightening vessel availability in the Pacific basin in recent weeks, initially driven by a spate of fob tenders in the basin, has buoyed east of Suez spot charter day rates. And shipowners are holding off fixing for the fourth quarter, eyeing a contango in forward spot charter rates, market participants said.
Stronger northeast Asian des prices for delivery in October-November may have also supported spot charter rates. The Argus northeast Asia (ANEA) October des price held a 25¢/mn Btu premium over the September contract at the Dutch TTF gas hub, when both were netted back to the US for a September loading. The steeper contango on the ANEA near-curve widened this inter-basin arbitrage for the following month to 33¢/mn Btu for an October loading.
Longer journey times from the US to northeast Asia, than to Europe or South America, would increase the tonnage demand from US liquefaction projects and the firms holding fob offtake from them.
The US' expected liquefaction capacity for the fourth quarter of 2019 is around 46mn t/yr. This would equate to around 50 loadings per month.
If northeast Asia received the same proportion of US production over the quarter as the previous year — around 44pc — this would equate to around 5.06mn t of LNG. But if the region imported in line with the fourth quarter of 2017 — around 65pc of US exports — this would rise to 7.48mn t.
Tonnage demand for 2018's proportion, based on a 50 day historical round trip from the US to northeast Asia and a 165,000m³ average vessel capacity, would be 37 LNG carriers. If the same proportion of US LNG was delivered to the region in the fourth quarter this year as the same period in 2017, tonnage demand would rise to 54 vessels.
But if demand weakens in the fourth quarter, loadings at US liquefaction facilities are unlikely to slow significantly.
Firms with offtake from US operator Cheniere's 25mn t/yr Sabine Pass and 10mn t/yr Corpus Christi facilities are required to give notice 60 days ahead of any turning down of their contracted volumes from the facilities. And Cheniere itself is unlikely to consider shutdowns, given that the firm has been heard lengthening its shipping position in recent weeks ahead of the fourth quarter, market participants said.
Weaker demand could also tighten vessel availability. If LNG demand were to weaken through the quarter, cargoes could be loaded at liquefaction facilities for delivery significantly beyond the required journey time to the respective regasification terminal. This may increase tonnage demand from offtakers or any other firm seeking to secure a spot fob cargo from the US.
Related news posts
USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself
USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself
New York, 23 April (Argus) — The premium for US Gulf coast (USGC) very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to LNG is expected to linger but not widen this spring, maintaining interest in LNG as a bunkering fuel. US Gulf coast LNG prices slipped from a premium to a discount to VLSFO in March 2023 and have remained there since. The discount surpassed 200/t VLSFO-equivalent in January (see chart). Both LNG and VLSFO prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to high inventories, which could keep the current LNG discount steady. The US winter natural gas withdrawal season ended with 39pc more natural gas in storage compared with the five-year average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Henry Hub natural gas monthly average prices dropped below $2/mmBtu in February, for the first time since September 2020, Argus data showed. The EIA expects the US will produce less natural gas on average in the second and third quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter of 2024. Despite lower production, the US will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November, says the EIA. As a result, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average less than $2/mmBtu in the second quarter before "increasing slightly" in the third quarter. EIA's forecast for all of 2024 averages about $2.20/mmBtu. US Gulf coast VLSFO is facing downward price pressure as demand falls and increased refinery activity signals a potential supply build . Rising Gulf coast refinery activity was likely behind some of the drop in prices. Gulf coast refinery utilization last week rose to 91.4pc, the highest in 12 weeks and up by 0.9 percentage points from the prior week. US Gulf coast suppliers are also eyeing strong fuel oil price competition from eastern hemisphere ports such as Singapore and Zhoushan, China, importing cheap Russian residual fuel oil. In general, LNG's substantial discount to VLSFO has kept interest in LNG for bunkering from ship owners with LNG-burning vessels high. The EIA discontinued publishing US bunker sales statistics with the last data available for 2020. But data from the Singapore Maritime & Port Authority, where the LNG–VLSFO discount widened to over $200/t VLSFOe in February, showed Singapore LNG for bunkering demand increase 11.4 times to 75,900t in the first quarter compared with 6,700t in the first quarter of 2023 and 110,900t for full year 2022. By Stefka Wechsler US Gulf coast LNG vs VLSFO $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s Chhara LNG terminal faces commissioning delay
India’s Chhara LNG terminal faces commissioning delay
Mumbai, 23 April (Argus) — Indian state-owned refiner HPCL's 5mn t/yr Chhara LNG import terminal is again facing delays in receiving and unloading its commissioning cargo, a market source told Argus . Fender failure at the terminal has caused problems in berthing the LNG vessel. The fender acts as a buffer or cushion between the ship hull and the dock, and prevents damage as a result of contact between the two surfaces. HPCL on 22 April issued a tender offering the commissioning LNG cargo , which is onboard the 160,000m³ Maran Gas Mystras. The vessel is currently laden offshore the terminal and ready to redeliver to another Indian LNG terminal on 25-30 April, according to HPCL. The company is seeking bids at a fixed price, and custom duty has already been paid by the firm. Indian firm Gujarat State Petroleum (GSPC) facilitate HPCL's purchase of the cargo on 26 March, with the cargo for delivery over 9-12 April. HPCL has put up the commissioning cargo for auction, and it can be discharged from any alternative port in India. LNG terminals closer to Chhara include Indian state-controlled importer Petronet's 17.5mn t/yr Dahej, Shell's 5.2mn t/yr Hazira or state-owned gas distributor Gail's 5mn t/yr Dhabol LNG terminal. HPCL also has not awarded a tender that is seeking another early-May delivery cargo , which closed on 19 April. Commissioning of the Chhara LNG terminal has been delayed since September 2022 owing to pipeline issues. The terminal is the country's eighth LNG import facility, which would lift total regasification capacity to 52.7mn t/yr from 47.7mn t/yr currently. The pipeline runs from the terminal and connects the city gas distribution network from Lothpur to Somnath district in Gujarat. There has been a delay in opening the pipeline as it passes through the eco-sensitive zone of the Gir wildlife sanctuary for 25.816km, a government document shows. The facility was completed in February, but is set to be closed from 15 May-15 September ahead of the completion of a breakwater facility , which is required to ensure safe LNG tanker berthing during India's monsoon season. No specific timeline has been given for building the breakwater, but the terminal will be able to operate year-round once it is completed. By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TotalEnergies to fully own Malaysian gas firm SapuraOMV
TotalEnergies to fully own Malaysian gas firm SapuraOMV
Singapore, 23 April (Argus) — TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to acquire Sapura Upstream Assets' 50pc stake in Malaysian private gas producer and operator SapuraOMV, which will take TotalEnergies' total stake to 100pc. The acquisition will cost $530mn, subject to closing adjustments, with closing expected to take place in the second half of this year, said TotalEnergies. This latest deal follows a previous agreement that TotalEnergies signed in January with Austrian firm OMV to acquire its 50pc interest in SapuraOMV. This means TotalEnergies will own 100pc of SapuraOMV once both transactions are completed. "Following the transaction with OMV announced two months ago and this new transaction with Sapura Upstream Assets, TotalEnergies will have full ownership of SapuraOMV and become a significant gas operator in Malaysia," said TotalEnergies' chairman and chief executive officer Patrick Pouyanné. "The SapuraOMV assets are fully in line with our strategy to grow our gas production to meet demand growth, focusing our portfolio on low-cost and low-emission assets," he added. SapuraOMV in 2023 produced 500mn ft³ of gas, which was used to feed the Bintulu LNG plant operated by state-controlled Petronas, as well as 7,000 b/d of condensates. SapuraOMV holds 40pc and 30pc operating interests, respectively, in blocks SK408 and SK310, which are offshore Sarawak, Malaysia. Block SK408's Jerun gas field, which could hold up to 84.9bn m³, is on track to start up in the second half of this year. SapuraOMV also has interests in exploration licences in Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico, where there was a discovery on block 30 last year, with estimated resources of 200mn-300mn bl of oil equivalent. TotalEnergies holds interests in two production sharing contracts in Malaysia. It in June last year signed an agreement with Petronas and Japanese trading firm Mitsui to jointly develop a carbon capture and storage project in Malaysia as well as assess maturing depleted fields and saline aquifers for storage. The firms hope to develop a CO2 merchant storage service to help industrial customers in Asia decarbonise. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Tamboran agrees NT gas sales deal
Australia’s Tamboran agrees NT gas sales deal
Sydney, 23 April (Argus) — Australian independent Tamboran Resources has signed a long-term gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory (NT) government for supplies from the Beetaloo joint venture's (BJV) proposed Shenandoah South pilot project. The binding deal for 40 TJ/d (1.07mn m³/d) on a take-or-pay basis from Shenandoah South in the onshore Beetaloo sub-basin of the NT equates to a total 131.4PJ (3.5bn m³) and begins in January-June 2026, running for nine years with an option to extend 6½ further years to 2042, Tamboran said on 23 April. This represent about two-thirds of the NT's present gas requirements and is conditional on the BJV entering a binding transportation agreement with pipeline operator APA for the planned 35km Sturt Plateau Pipeline , as well as reaching a final investment decision (FID) for Shenandoah South. Tamboran has a working interest of 47.5pc in Shenandoah South, which is aiming for a FID mid-year, following Canadian independent Falcon Oil and Gas' decision to reduce its participation from 22.5pc to 5pc in March to reduce its cost exposure to the project. BJV is operated by Tamboran, which holds a 50:50 interest in the Tamboran B2 joint venture with privately-held Daly Waters Energy controlled by US billionaire Bryan Sheffield. The BJV also holds a 10-year, 36.5 PJ offtake deal with Australian utility Origin Energy signed in 2022. The NT is dependent on gas-fired power generation. Continuing supply problems at Italian oil firm Eni's offshore Blacktip field has it currently sourcing gas from Australian independent Santos' depleting Bayu-Undan field in the Timor Sea and the onshore Mereenie joint venture . Tamboran is aiming in the long term to develop its proposed 6.6mn t/yr Northern Territory LNG project , for which it is aiming to complete initial engineering this year. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more