Higher operating rates to weigh on China metals markets

  • Market: Metals
  • 03/03/20

China's metals markets are expected to come under pressure in the coming weeks from rising supplies following production restarts and weaker demand from downstream sectors, amid a fall in the country's official factory purchasing managers' index (PMI).

China's manufacturing PMI for February fell to a historic low of 35.7 from 50 in January, much lower than expected, reflecting the deep slump in manufacturing activity in the country because of the coronavirus outbreak. A PMI reading below 50 signals a sectoral contraction, while above 50 shows an expansion.

Metals demand from the main downstream sectors, including real estate, lead-acid battery, air-conditioners and electronics, has been affected by the coronavirus crisis as many manufacturers have delayed resuming operations, according to China's nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA).

Prices for most metals have softened in the past week after more smelters resumed operations following a recovery in logistics services. Local governments in many regions have given approvals to producers to resume output as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak eases.

China reported 128 new confirmed coronavirus cases today, according to government figures, compared with over 15,000 on 12 February. The number of patients being treated has fallen to around 30,000.

Rare earths

Operating rates at light rare earths producers in north China have risen to around 80-90pc, with more producers expected to resume regular run rates in mid-March. Prices for light rare earths have softened in response to the rise in supplies and lower demand because of lower operating rates in the magnet manufacturing sector.

Medium and heavy rare earths prices are on the rise because of comparatively lower operating rates. Producers in Guangdong and Guangxi province are operating at 60-70pc of capacity, while run rates in Jiangxi province are around only 50pc. Supply disruptions of ore imports from Myanmar (Burma) caused by the coronavirus outbreak have also supported the uptrend.

Magnesium

Operating rates in the industry are estimated to have increased to around 70pc from 50-60pc following output resumptions at main producers including 20,000 t/yr Shaanxi-based Fugu Jinchuan and another 50,000 t/yr producer in the same region. This has caused spot 99.9pc grade metal prices to fall by 5pc in the past two weeks.

Manganese

Production restarts at main producers, including Kingray with a 60,000 t/yr capacity and Zunyi Tianchi with a 50,000 t/yr capacity, have weighed on the manganese market.

General operating rates in the industry have resumed to 50-60pc, according to Argus estimates. This has pushed down spot flake prices by nearly 9pc from mid-February.

Tungsten

Some 66 facilities out of 77 member units have restarted production after regional travel controls were lifted, with 70pc of equipment now in operation and 74pc of the labour force resuming work, the China tungsten industry association said today. Operating rates in the tungsten industry are expected to reach 90pc in the short term.

Antimony

Limited feedstock availability and renewed buying interest from consumers pushed prices up sharply in mid-February when large-scale producers were operating at 20-30pc run rates amid limited labour.

Operating rates have recovered to around 50pc this week, with more smelters in the key Lengshuijiang production hub likely to restart production later this month.

Ferro-alloys

Operating rates in the ferro-molybdenum sector are estimated to have risen to around 50-60pc from 40pc, with spot prices falling by 11pc from mid-February as a result of the rise in supplies and weaker demand from the steel industry.

Ferro-silicon smelters are running at 60pc of capacity because of production limits in some regions during the winter heating season typically from December to March. Run rates in the ferro-chrome sector have increased to around 65pc from 40-50pc.

Base metals

Most base metal producers have maintained normal production during the coronavirus crisis, although demand from the downstream sectors has weakened.

Copper producers are operating at an 81.5pc rate as of 26 February compared with 87.6pc at aluminium smelters and 80.2pc at zinc/lead producers, CNIA data show. The organisation has appealed to the government to launch a national stockpiling drive to prevent inventories at metal smelters from rising rapidly and prices from falling significantly.

Export markets

China's metal exports, in particular for antimony and tungsten, are poised to fall in the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis worsens in many countries outside of China.

These countries could follow China's preventive measures and prompt manufacturing companies to shut down to contain the spread of the virus, reducing metals demand.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
28/03/24

Europe plate: Imports weigh on EU prices

Europe plate: Imports weigh on EU prices

London, 28 March (Argus) — Plate prices in Europe tumbled this week on increased import activity, which has pushed European producers to adjust their offers down to remain competitive. The Argus fortnightly Italian plate assessment dropped by €22.50/t to €730/t ex-works today for S235 grades, while the northwest European plate assessment for the same specifications also dropped by €15/t to €765/t. In the south, for S275 material, re-rollers were heard quoting €740-750/t to small customers, with €720-730/t possible for larger volumes. The market remained split between suppliers willing to drop to the low €700s/t to collect orders, and others that preferred to remain firm at €740-750/t and wait for after the Easter holidays to see how the market develops. Two re-rollers confirmed this week that they are mulling extending their Easter break by a few days owing to weak purchasing activity in the market. The level of €710/t ex-works for S275 was also reported available for orders of 1,000t and above, but this could not be verified. Buying activity over the past two weeks remained poor, as market participants are purchasing what they need with no restocking activity occurring. A slight drop in slab prices has contributed to lower plate prices. Deliveries for the Italian domestic market remain for late April for commodity grades. To the rest of Europe, Italian producers were heard offering around €750/t on a ex-works basis for S235 material, without collecting any tonnage. One source said there were offers as high as €760-770/t ex-works Italy. In northern Europe, one mill was reported concluding sales to end-users working in the shipbuilding industry at €750-770 ex-works for S355 grades. The same producer tabled offers at around €780/t, but was quick to offer discounts. Orders from the supplier are expected to be delivered in six to seven weeks. One source estimated that for S235, integrated mills would be offering close to €780-800/t ex-works, while from re-rollers located in the Benelux area €750/t ex-works for the same grade could be easily achieved. One central European mill was also heard available to sell at €790-810/t ex-works for S235. Producers in the northwest are operating on April to May delivery depending on the mill and the product requested. Market participants agree that a rebound in market activity is only expected towards the latter part of April. On imports, over the past couple of weeks, Indonesian material was purchased by buyers across the continent, especially in southern Europe at €640/t cif levels for S275. One source estimated that sales from Indonesia totalled close to 60,000t over the past month. After this activity, Indonesian material was not reported available over the past seven days. One deal was also concluded this week at €710/t cfr north EU, for South Korean S355 material. From South Korea, offers for S275 were estimated over the €660/t cif Italy level this week, with no deals concluded. Indian material was offered at $710-720/t cfr Italy for S275, while one trader offered the same origin from port, free on truck at €730/t for S355. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Read more
News

Turkey rebar: Market muted ahead of elections


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Turkey rebar: Market muted ahead of elections

London, 28 March (Argus) — Turkish rebar prices were stable today, without a great deal of urgency shown by export buyers following a sustained uptick in scrap prices over the past few days. The domestic market remained subdued, as construction demand is still constrained by high borrowing costs and the ongoing depreciation of the domestic currency. Argus ' daily Turkish export assessment for rebar was unchanged at $590/t fob, with larger cargoes still available at this level. European, mostly Balkan, buyers have been making enquiries this week, with scrap prices inching steadily upwards over the past three weeks. But buyers have mostly been checking prices, and trade has remained thin. Rebar indications from suppliers were in a $590-605/t fob range, with most suppliers expecting at least $595/t fob. In the wire rod segment, material was available in a range of $605-625/t fob. The weekly wire rod assessment increased by $5/t to $600/t fob Turkey. In the domestic market, offers from most mills in the Marmara and Iskenderun regions were firm in a range of $610-620/t ex-works excluding value-added tax (VAT). But material remains available from Izmir mills and one Marmara mill at $595-600/t ex-works. While some buyers have made purchases in the run-up to the municipal elections on 30 March, restocking has been lacklustre, with a lack of firm signals from the construction sector. Argus ' daily Turkish domestic rebar assessment was unchanged at $600/t ex-works excluding VAT, with the lira equivalent also unchanged at TL23,4000/t ex-works including VAT. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Taiwan scrap imports fall 13pc on year in February


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Taiwan scrap imports fall 13pc on year in February

Singapore, 28 March (Argus) — Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports fell on the year in February, reflecting rising prices, subdued activity during the holiday period and high stocks. Ferrous scrap imports totalled 218,887t, down by 21.3pc on the month and 13.2pc on the year, customs data showed. Trade sources attributed the decline to rising seaborne scrap prices in November and December. Trade sources said lower bookings were expected given the lunar new year holiday in Taiwan on 8-14 February, with mills likely to have been prudent in their procurement since November as delivery of containerised scrap usually takes 8-10 weeks from the signing of an agreement. The US remained Taiwan's top ferrous scrap supplier in February, providing 81,249t, although this was down by 32.6pc on January and 25.1pc on the year. Ferrous scrap imports from Japan fell by 10.3pc on the month and 15pc on the year to 55,510t in February. Imports from Dominican Republic rose by 7.1pc on the month and 16.9pc year on year to 17,563t. Scrap supply from Australia fell by 47.8pc year on year to 9,921t. Trade sources said underwhelming fundamentals in Asia meant Australian sellers focused on south Asia, where they could achieve stronger margins. Looking ahead, a slowing construction sector could mean lower scrap imports. "The shortage of manpower and rising building material costs have impacted the initiation pace of new construction projects," the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research said on 25 March. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Japan’s SMM eyes Li-ion battery recycling plant by 2026


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Japan’s SMM eyes Li-ion battery recycling plant by 2026

Tokyo, 28 March (Argus) — Japanese battery cathode producer Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) plans to set up a lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery recycling plant in western Japan's Ehime prefecture by June 2026. The recycling plant is expected to have a processing capacity of around 6,000-7,000 t/yr of black mass, equivalent to batteries for around 60,000 electric vehicles, a company representative told Argus on 28 March. Black mass is the shredded remains of cathode materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium. The company will start construction sometime during March-April 2025, but the timing for commercial operations was undisclosed. SMM has also entered into a partnership with nine domestic recycling partners to build a supply chain for collecting used Li-ion batteries, the company representative added. SMM produced cathodes using nickel and cobalt from recycled Li-ion batteries in June 2023. Domestic battery producer Prime Earth EV Energy proved the quality of SMM's used cathodes in performance testing. The recycled ratio of nickel and cobalt used in the test was more than 6pc and 16pc respectively. This exceeds the standard rates that EU battery regulations tentatively set as minimum recycling requirements for each material, a SMM representative previously told Argus . The EU regulation is expected to take effect from 2031 after approvals by member countries. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Centaurus' Jaguar Ni mine in Brazil eyes 2027 output


28/03/24
News
28/03/24

Centaurus' Jaguar Ni mine in Brazil eyes 2027 output

Singapore, 28 March (Argus) — Australian mining company Centaurus Metals said that its Jaguar nickel sulphide project in Brazil is undergoing a feasibility study and aims to start production in mid-2027. Jaguar, bought from Brazilian mining firm Vale in 2020 , is estimated to hold 109mn t of 0.87pc grade nickel for an estimated 948,900t of contained nickel. The nickel product will be largely targeted at the Atlantic market, with expectations that demand will strengthen in the region. "Demand for nickel we believe is not going away. And if you look at what's going to happen in the US and European markets in particular, nickel will probably be a bigger part of the battery composition than anywhere else," Centaurus' managing director Darren Gordon said at the Tribeca Futures Commodities conference held in Singapore on 26 March. "There's a huge amount of nickel that still needs to come into the market." Many Australian mining firms have struggled with a slump in global nickel prices earlier in the year because of a supply glut caused by increased volumes from Indonesia, coupled with a slowdown in demand. Several Australian mines have halted operations , while other processing facilities were placed on care and maintenance programmes . But Centaurus is hopeful that Jaguar will be able to compete on a cost and environmental basis with Indonesian supplies. "Nickel is going to continue be supplied out of Indonesia in very large ways so we are going to compete on costs. And we think that when we deliver the feasibility study, we will be able to demonstrate that we can compete on costs. But overlay on that, we have this very low carbon footprint associated with our project," Gordon added. Centaurus said Jaguar is one of the lowest carbon footprint nickel project globally, following a review done by a metals and mining ESG research company. Once operational, greenhouse gas emissions from the project are forecast to be 7.27t of carbon dioxide/t of nickel equivalent, which is assessed to be lower than 94pc of other global nickel production. By Sheih Li Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more