Petrobras spending plans poised for sharp cut
Brazil's state-controlled Petrobras is under intense pressure to revise its $75.7bn spending plan for 2020-24 as global oil prices plummet below the pre-salt breakeven price.
The company has said pre-salt oil production is viable at around $35-$45/bl, Ice Brent futures have now spiraled below the $30/bl mark to levels not seen since 2003 after the demise of the Opec+ agreement to restrict production. Atlantic Basin crude grades, including Brazilian Lula, are struggling to compete on price in China because of the flood of supply from the Mideast Gulf.
Any adjustment to Petrobras' spending plans would likely impact the company's upstream growth trajectory, which is anchored on giant pre-salt reservoirs in the Santos basin. The firm projects 2020 domestic output of 2.2mn b/d, just above the 2019 level.
Brazil, a growing non-Opec oil supplier, is officially forecast to produce a total of 5.5mn b/d by 2029, up from around 3mn b/d at present.
The oil price collapse is compounded by the rapid spread of coronavirus inside Brazil, where a growing number of senior government officials, including mines and energy minister Bento Albuquerque and senate president Davi Alcolumbre, have now tested positive.
Petrobras announced yesterday that half of its administrative staff would work from home to limit contagion.
The Sindipetro NF oil workers union, which represents workers in the offshore Campos basin, is urging Petrobras to suspend embarkation at offshore platforms pending the arrival of medical supplies and staff.
Lagging behind
Brazil has lagged behind most other Latin American countries in adopting strict measures to combat the spread of the deadly virus. More than 350 cases have been recorded in Brazil, the highest in the region. Anti-government protests have started to erupt in Sao Paulo and other cities.
Bolsonaro declared a state of catastrophe today, and closed the border with Venezuela, where the disease is facing little resistance. The catastrophe declaration, which gives the government greater leeway to act, still requires congressional approval.
Earlier this week the economy ministry rolled out a R147bn ($29bn) stimulus package aimed at shielding Brazil's economy. And today, infrastructure minister Tarcisio de Freitas unveiled support for airlines, including Gol, Latam and Azul. The carriers will now have more time to refund passengers for cancelled flights and can defer payment of airport fees. Airport management companies can also delay payment of concession fees. And the government will make low-cost lines of credit available to airlines to cover short-term working capital needs.
Brazilian airline association Abear said domestic flight demand has fallen 50pc.
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ACT to partner with LR, Wartsila, and UECC on CNSL
ACT to partner with LR, Wartsila, and UECC on CNSL
London, 28 March (Argus) — Dutch supplier ACT Group is collaborating with classification society Lloyd's Register, Finnish engine manufacturer Wartsila, and Norwegian shipping firm United European Car Carriers (UECC) on the development and evaluation of cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) as a biofuel in marine biodiesel blends. ACT confirmed the launch of a CNSL-based biofuel called "FSI.100", which has gone through extensive engine testing with various blend combinations. The CNSL-based biofuel has now received approval from engine manufactures to be blended as a 30pc component with marine gasoil (MGO) to form a marine biodiesel blend for the purpose of further sea trials. ACT confirmed that the FSI.100 product will benefit from lower acidity, and there is potential for the product to be compatible for blending with fuel oil. CNSL is an advanced biodiesel feedstock, making it a more appealing and price competitive option to buyers compared with other biodiesel feedstocks. The development follows a report by Lloyd's Register fuel oil bunkering analysis and advisory service (FOBAS) that pointed to a correlation between engine fuel pump and injector-related damage in vessels and the presence of "unestablished" CNSL in the utilised marine fuels. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Baltimore bridge collapse to raise retail fuel prices
Baltimore bridge collapse to raise retail fuel prices
Houston, 27 March (Argus) — The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, is more likely to increase regional gasoline prices than diesel due to additional freight costs and certain route restrictions. Suppliers in the region have so far signaled that the effect on broader markets will be minimal, but regional prices will likely rise, especially as peak summer demand season begins with Memorial Day weekend in late May. The bridge closure could pose more problems for gasoline supply than diesel, since gasoline cannot be transported through the Fort McHenry (I-95) and Baltimore Harbor (I-895) tunnels — the two other major roads that cross the Patapsco River at Baltimore — while there are no restrictions on diesel, according to the Maryland Transportation Authority (MTA). Fuel wholesaler Global Partners said yesterday that it would like to see hours of service waivers for trucking in the region to minimize fuel supply disruption to customers, but the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is yet to issue one. Elevated retail prices are likely to be limited to the immediate Baltimore area but could spill over into neighboring markets should trucking markets remain tight due to rerouting, market sources told Argus . Fuel markets in eastern Maryland can be supplied by PBF's 171,000 b/d Delaware City, Delaware, refinery and two further plants in Pennsylvania — Monroe Energy's 190,000 b/d Trainer refinery and PBF's 160,000 b/d Paulsboro refinery. To the north, United Refining runs a 65,000 b/d plant in Warren, Pennsylvania, and along the Atlantic coast Phillips 66 operates the 259,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey. PBF, Monroe and United did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether the bridge collapse is affecting refinery operations. Phillips 66 declined to comment on commercial activities. Still, the five nearby refineries — representing all the Atlantic coast's 850,000 b/d of crude processing capacity — are unlikely to see their operations curtailed by limits in shipping products to Maryland. With no refinery in the state of Maryland, most fuels are delivered to Baltimore by Gulf coast refiners on the Colonial Pipeline. Global Partners, which operates a terminal just west of the collapsed bridge, said yesterday it is primarily supplied by the pipeline and expects product flows to continue. Several terminals in the Baltimore Harbor and the nearby Port Salisbury can also receive small vessels and barges of road fuels from Delaware and Pennsylvania, according to the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA). The Port of Baltimore — which remains closed since the collapse — took delivery of 24,000 b/d of gasoline and under 2,000 b/d of distillates from barges and small vessels in 2019, about three percent of the Atlantic coast's refining capacity. "A closure of the Port of Baltimore while the Colonial Pipeline is open would not significantly disrupt fuel supply," the MEA wrote in a 2022 analysis of liquid fuels supply in the state. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US breaks $79/bl ceiling in latest SPR purchase
US breaks $79/bl ceiling in latest SPR purchase
Washington, 27 March (Argus) — President Joe Biden's administration has exceeded a price ceiling that has guided when the US government would buy crude to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with the latest crude purchase hitting a price of $81.32/bl. The US Department of Energy (DOE) six months ago adopted a new strategy for replenishing the SPR, with a plan to use consistent monthly purchases to replace some of the 180mn bl of crude that Biden sold from the reserve in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For months, DOE has said it would continue to buy crude so long as it was a "good deal for taxpayers," which the agency defined as a purchase price not to exceed $79/bl. But the agency's latest crude purchase, for nearly 2.8mn bl of sour crude for delivery in September, came at a cost of $225.6mn, an average price of $81.34/bl, according to data DOE recently published on its website. The crude contracts went to Macquarie Commodities Trading, Sunoco Partners Marketing & Terminals and Total's Atlantic Trading & Marketing. DOE, asked for comment about why it purchased crude in excess of its price target, said there would "likely be news coming later today." Before this week, the administration had largely adhered to its $79/bl price target to buy 24.7mn bl of crude for delivery to the SPR from January through August, with the exception of a $79.10/bl purchase for January delivery. DOE reiterated the price ceiling on 14 March, when it announced a new solicitation to buy crude, and last year had called off multiple crude solicitations when prices came in too high. DOE has previously increased its price ceiling based on shifts in the oil market. DOE in 2022 had initially targeted a purchase price of $67-$72/bl, resulting in the purchase of 6.3mn bl of crude last summer at an average price of $72.67/bl. But after rising prices put that target out of reach, DOE raised its price ceiling to $79/bl. The SPR held 363mn bl of crude as of 22 March, according to federal data. By the end of this year, as a result of crude purchases, the reserve is expected to "be back to essentially where we would have been had we not sold during the invasion of Ukraine," US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said on 20 March, after accounting for the cancellation of 140mn bl of congressional mandated crude sales that were scheduled through 2031. With the latest crude purchase, DOE will have signed contracts to buy 32.4mn bl of crude at an average price of nearly $77/bl, of which more than 19mn bl has yet to be delivered to the SPR. Another 20mn bl of crude that oil companies and traders borrowed from the SPR in 2022 is set to be returned by year-end, which would push inventories in the reserve to above 400mn bl. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
South Sudan crude output halves on pipeline blockage
South Sudan crude output halves on pipeline blockage
London, 27 March (Argus) — South Sudan's crude production has almost halved to around 80,000 b/d because of a blockage at a pipeline in war-torn Sudan, South Sudan's oil ministry undersecretary William Anyak Deng told Argus today. A blockage along the Chinese-led Petrodar Pipeline is currently preventing around 100,000 b/d of South Sudan's heavy sweet Dar Blend grade from reaching Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea for export, Deng said. But production of South Sudan's medium sweet Nile Blend grade has not been impacted, as this is transported to Bashayer through the separate Greater Nile oil pipeline which remains online, he said. His comments come after Sudan earlier this month warned major oil exporting companies in South Sudan that his country could no longer carry out its obligation to transport their crude . Dar Petroleum Operating Company (DPOC) — a consortium including China's state-controlled CNPC and Sinopec and Malaysia's state-owned Petronas — produces Dar Blend but has had to all but cease output, Deng said. Nile Blend production is split between the South Sudan-based firms Sudd Petroleum Operating Company (SPOC) and Greater Pioneer Operating Company (GPOC) and currently running at around 80,000 b/d, he added. South Sudan's crude production stood at around 150,000 b/d in February, according to Argus estimates. The blockage is a result of gelling issues — solidifying crude — in the Petrodar Pipeline, which Sudanese and South Sudanese engineers are struggling to resolve. This is because of a lack of diesel that is used to heat the crude or dilute it to help it flow, Deng said. "We are working to resolve the problem right now. There is mechanical work that is ongoing, we are trying to flush out the oil," he added. But the pipeline has been suffering from leaks and pressure drops for months, with repairs complicated by the ongoing civil war in Sudan between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Deng said it was becoming increasingly difficult to get permission from the warring parties in Sudan to move workers, equipment and spare parts to maintain infrastructure. He also said South Sudan has been sending diesel to Sudan to help with repair work given the closure of Sudan's 100,000 b/d Khartoum refinery which has come under repeated fire since the civil war began last year. Sudan also typically produces around 50,000 b/d of mostly Nile Blend crude, but this is thought to have been impacted by the civil war. Crude exports from Sudan's Bashayer port averaged 130,000 b/d in 2023 and hit 168,000 b/d in January, according to Kpler. But exports have only averaged about 75,000 b/d since February. Landlocked South Sudan is entirely reliant on Sudan to export its crude and depends on oil sales for more than 90pc of government revenues. Any prolonged disruption to exports would put the country's economy in a precarious position. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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