German UERs upset European biodiesel markets
The recent approval of several upstream emission reduction (UER) projects in Germany has caused uncertainty among European biodiesel traders, with the effect of the additional CO2-savings on the market unclear.
Prompt physical liquidity in the European biodiesel market has slowed this month. Around 116,000t traded on Argus Open Markets (AOM) between 1-17 September, down by around 65pc from the same period in August, on a combination of Covid-19 and Berlin's approval of five UERs in August and September.
It is likely that prices for physical biodiesel and for German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction certificates will be pressured by the additional CO2-savings in the German market, leaving traders reluctant to take on large positions.
Prices for German GHG credits have fallen steadily in the past few months, from around €400/t CO2e in mid-June to €330/t CO2e in the week of 7 September, because of low demand from road fuel suppliers. They will probably continue to drop with demand unlikely to pick up in the coming weeks.
Waste-based biodiesel fob ARA Ucome prices, which are generally used to calculate underlying blending costs, have risen since the start of September, when they have averaged $1,255/t, but they remain below the average of $1,340/t in the same period last month. Ucome has been further pressured by France's amendment of its mandate for the incorporation into road fuels of biodiesel with cold filter plugging point (CFPP) of -10°C — mostly used during winter months —until the end of the year. This increases tax incentives for the incorporation of Fame -10°C CFPP in road fuels and raises its energy share in fuels by 20pc, making products eligible for double counting, like Ucome, less attractive for buyers because of their higher costs.
The additional 2.18mn t of CO2e that will be generated by the 10 UERs that have been approved could also have an effect on term contract negotiations for 2021, which many market participants have started. With more GHG certificates available, German fuel suppliers might primarily ask to lower the amount of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), which is popular as it can be blended above the 7pc blend wall but is generally significantly more expensive than conventional biodiesel grades, in their 2021 supply contracts. With the majority of HVO produced in Europe usually committed under term contracts, a reduction in the share of term volumes could result in an increase in spot trading for the product in the first half of next year.
German road fuel suppliers have to fulfil a 6pc GHG emissions reduction obligation in 2020, either by physically blending renewable fuels into their fuel mix or by buying GHG credits. UERs are an additional instrument to achieve the necessary CO2 savings. Up to 1.2pc of the German blending mandate can be covered by offsetting emissions reductions in the stages before feedstock reaches a refinery or storage facility.
Related news posts
Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo
Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo
New York, 17 April (Argus) — Japanese oil company Idemitsu provisionally hired a medium range (MR) tanker to carry hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver on 16 April, a sign of the growing HVO trade from the region into west coast North America. Idemitsu put the Stolt Sisto MR on subjects for a US Gulf coast-Vancouver voyage from 20-25 April at $2.35mn lumpsum. The fixture may be part of an agreement under which Vertex Energy supplies Idemitsu's California-based subsidiary, Idemitsu Apollo, with all of its renewable diesel production from its plant in Mobile, Alabama. The plant's exports are targeting "growing regional markets in the western United States and Canada", according to Vertex. High freight costs for US domestic shipments because of the Jones Act may be encouraging Idemitsu to focus on the Canadian market. In comparison, freight for a US-flagged MR on a New Orleans-Los Angeles voyage was equivalent to $4.34mn, nearly double the cost of a voyage to more distant Vancouver. "I think [demand from Vancouver] will keep expanding with the subsidies/grants," a shipbroker said. "There is not much production in Vancouver, just Parkland [refinery]." Canadian oil company Suncor typically books one MR vessel a month to carry HVO from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver, with two charters in October 2023 standing out as a particularly active month for the trade, according to ship fixtures compiled by Argus . But Idemitsu has been "jumping in on the action" in recent months, according to the shipbroker, provisionally hiring at least one MR tanker on the spot market in January and February before yesterday's deal. Vancouver buyers are also getting HVO from Asia-Pacific suppliers, and countries like South Korea could become increasingly competitive in the renewable trade overall as they ramp up their sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and HVO production in the coming years. Vancouver imported around 29,500 b/d of HVO in January 2024, including 16,612 b/d from the US, 7,548 b/d from South Korea, and 5,351 b/d from Taiwan, according to Kpler data. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore's MPA, IEA unite on maritime decarbonisation
Singapore's MPA, IEA unite on maritime decarbonisation
Singapore, 17 April (Argus) — The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) and the IEA have signed an initial deal to push the transition to zero and near zero emission fuels, while working on technology as well as digitalisation to meet the maritime decarbonisation agenda. The agreement, signed by MPA chief executive Teo Eng Dih and IEA executive director Faith Birol, was announced at the Singapore Maritime Week 2024 (SMW) this week. "Greater international collaboration in maritime and energy industries is critical for international shipping to meet international decarbonisation goals," Teo said. "Shipping is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise and we need to spur development and deployment of new technologies to slow and then reverse the rise in its emissions," said IEA chief economist Tim Gould. "This will require strong collaboration at a national and international level." Training programmes will be built to support the adoption of new fuels. There will also be partnerships made towards fuel-related projects and initiatives such as the International Maritime Organisation-Singapore NextGen project. The IEA plans to open its first regional co-operation centre in Singapore, which will be its first regional office outside of its headquarters in Paris, France. By Mahua Chakravarty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
New York, 16 April (Argus) — The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum. Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030. The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study. In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs. The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe). Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t. Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast . The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe. Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply. Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime. But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Singapore, Rotterdam advance 'green' shipping corridor
Singapore, Rotterdam advance 'green' shipping corridor
Singapore, 15 April (Argus) — The Singapore-Rotterdam Green and Digital Shipping Corridor (GDSC) is accelerating its decarbonisation efforts with new partners, and is advancing initiatives to encourage the uptake of sustainable marine fuels. The world's two largest marine fuel hubs established the Singapore-Rotterdam GDSC in August 2022, in a push for maritime decarbonisation and digitalisation between the ports. There are 26 global value-chain partners in the GDSC initiative including fuel suppliers, shipping lines, knowledge partners and financial entities. German container shipping line Hapag-Lloyd is the latest partner in the Singapore-Rotterdam trade lane, committing to operate large container vessels on zero and near-zero carbon emission fuels. Hapag-Lloyd is the world's fifth-largest liner shipping firm with at least 260 ocean-going vessels, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). GDSC working groups will also pilot the uptake of sustainable marine fuels — like bio-methane, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen — and test out commercial structures to reduce cost barriers in switching to alternative fuels. This includes a bio-methane working group that is studying regulations and standards to support adopting the fuel for marine bunkering on a commercial scale. GDSC partners also plan to carry out bio-LNG bunkering pilots over 2024-25, based on a mass balancing chain of custody principle. A methanol working group is working on fuel standards and knowledge exchange, in addition to addressing common challenges to carry out commercial methanol bunkering at Singapore and Rotterdam. And an ammonia working group is developing a framework to assess the lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity of green ammonia for bunkering, to be completed by 2025. Improvements to digitalisation have also been made as part of the GDSC initiative, with Singapore and Rotterdam successfully piloting an exchange of port-to-port data. Both ports will be able to exchange vessel arrival and departure times for port planning, and ships travelling between Singapore and Rotterdam can also optimise their port call voyage. The maritime sector is pushing towards a more resilient and efficient energy transition, and participants have pointed out that collaboration between countries and stakeholders would be key to green shipping corridors . The GDSC is a "very valuable collaboration in accelerating the twin transition: the integration of digital innovation in energy transition efforts," said chief executive officer of Port of Rotterdam Authority (PoR), Boudewijn Siemons. "Not only are we seeing the first results in standardization and data sharing for Port Call Optimization but also the first steps in moving towards operationalization of zero and low carbon fuels on this trade lane." Progress on the GDSC development also reflects that "public-private collaboration across global value chains can be achieved," said MPA chief executive Teo Eng Dih. By Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more