China sets lower passenger forecast for peak holiday

China's government is forecasting passenger volumes during this year's chunyun, the near-40 day period before and after the lunar new year, will be 1.7bn. This is 15pc higher than a year earlier but 43pc lower than 2019, which will continue to weigh on transport fuel demand during this typical peak holiday season.

The ministry of transport (MoT) did not provide a breakdown of its forecasts by different types of transportation. But passenger volumes by road, rail, air and water in chunyun 2021 are predicted to be 1.39bn, 242mn, 44mn and 19mn respectively, using a historical breakdown from the national bureau of statistics (NBS). Road transport accounts for 82pc, followed by rail at 14pc, air at 3pc and water at 1pc.

The passenger forecast is higher than the record low 1.48bn a year earlier when China imposed a nationwide lockdown after the Covid-19 outbreak. But the forecast remains far below the pre-pandemic 2.98bn during chunyun 2019, as the Chinese government has been issuing increasingly strict warnings against travel during the lunar new year holiday period to prevent the coronavirus from spreading across the country after new outbreaks in Hebei, Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces.

Passenger transport usually peaks in the lunar new year period, as people return to home towns for holiday celebrations. Daily passengers during the period are about 50pc higher than the yearly average, NBS data indicate. Daily passenger volumes in chunyun 2021 will double from current levels, the MoT said yesterday, although this will still be lower than normal.

Late last month, prior to the new outbreaks, China Railway predicted passengers by rail in the lunar new year period to rebound to 2019 levels at 407mn, much more optimistic than the latest forecast by MoT.

Different regions in China also set lower forecasts for their chunyun passenger volumes. Beijing predicted its volumes by rail and air will be a combined 13.42mn, down by 43pc on a year earlier and 69pc below 2019. Beijing is surrounded by Hebei province that is a centre of the fresh Covid-19 outbreak. The capital itself has recorded increased cases with a community in its Daxing district marked as a high-risk area. South China's Guangdong province forecast its chunyun passengers will be 172mn, 14.9pc lower than 2019.

Migrant workers returning to home towns will be required to test negative for the coronavirus result, which should be done within seven days before arrival, the health ministry said. Workers will also be required to stay at home for 14 days on arrival and will have to have two further tests. The stricter requirements may further weigh on transportation in the lunar new year period. But the use of private cars will likely increase to reduce higher risks from crowded public transport and demand for short trips in cities.