News
15/12/25
Viewpoint: West Africa refineries key to hub status
Viewpoint: West Africa refineries key to hub status
London, 15 December (Argus) — West Africa is developing into a regional refining
and trading hub, backed by state aims to achieve greater refined product
self-sufficiency and export capacity. The extent of further change in 2026 will
be defined by the fortunes of existing and fledgling refining projects,
including Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote and a clutch of smaller plants. The
independently-owned Dangote refinery continues to upend regional and global
refined product markets, reducing west Africa's reliance on imports. Since
gasoline production began at the refinery in September 2024 , Nigeria — the
region's largest gasoline importer — has seen net gasoline imports steadily fall
to a historic low of 40,000 b/d in September this year, from 332,000 b/d just a
year earlier, Kpler data show. Meanwhile, Nigeria's net middle distillate
exports hit a record 145,000 b/d in July, up from 82,000 b/d on the year, and
the country has broadly been a net exporter of these products since May 2024. As
a result, Nigeria and west Africa as a whole are pulling on considerably less
gasoline and middle distillates such as gasoil and jet fuel. Year-to-date, the
region — spanning Mauritania to Angola — has seen gasoline imports drop by a
quarter on the year to 337,000 b/d, while jet imports have collapsed to 4,000
b/d, both the lowest since at least 2016 when Kpler records began. West African
gasoil imports have fallen to a five-year low of 162,000 b/d. Dangote has
inarguably transformed regional oil product market dynamics, having proven
robust through multiple bouts of maintenance works, and there is room for it to
capture more of the domestic gasoline market in the year ahead. The same cannot
be said for Nigerian state-owned NNPC's refining assets. The company restarted a
60,000 b/d section of the 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery late in 2024 only
to shut it again in May this year, while the 125,000 b/d Warri plant restarted
in December 2024 before going offline the following month. This underscores the
challenges of modernising or rehabilitating long-mothballed facilities along the
west African coast. Refiners in other west African countries are expanding their
offerings to regional consumers, further eroding market share previously claimed
by European traders. Angola's 30,000 b/d Cabinda refinery is up and running ,
producing mainly gasoil and jet fuel for the domestic market from its first
phase. This is likely to curb Angolan middle distillate import demand, with the
refinery — a 90:10 joint venture between UK-based Gemcorp and state-owned
Sonangol — meeting 10pc of domestic demand. Cabinda's second phase will add
gasoline production, but not until around 2028. Angola imported 20,000 b/d of
gasoline in January-August, according to Kpler, around 40,000 b/d of diesel and
gasoil, and negligible amounts of jet fuel. In Ghana, the 45,000 b/d Tema Oil
Refinery (TOR) continues works to restore nameplate capacity. The
privately-owned 120,000 b/d Sentuo Oil Refinery and the country's smaller Platon
and Akwaaba modular refineries operate sporadically. TOR's return may be a
surprise for 2026, with the operator reporting in October that turnaround
activities were taking place "aimed at preparing the refinery for a safe and
efficient restart". The refinery's prospects look stronger than those of Ghana's
Petroleum Hub Development Corporation (PDHC), which appears to have postponed
construction of the first of three planned 300,000 b/d refineries since John
Mahama returned to power in January for a non-consecutive second term. The PDHC
delays highlight the long lead times typical for large-scale refining projects.
Dangote itself took nearly a decade to move from its first loan agreement to
eventual start-up. Other projects announced this year are unlikely to advance in
2026, making operating or near-complete refineries in Nigeria, Angola and Ghana
critical for the region's push towards a bigger role in the downstream market.
By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at
feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights
reserved.
