Nuclear, CCUS key for reaching net zero: IEA

Failing to take timely decisions on nuclear power and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) would raise the cost of a net zero emissions pathway and add to the risk of not meeting such goals, the IEA said in its Net Zero by 2050 report.

The report points to three important sets of decisions that governments need to make concerning nuclear power — lifetime extensions of units, the pace of new construction and advances in nuclear technology.

Nuclear power makes a significant contribution in the IEA's net zero scenario, with output rising by 40pc to 2030 and doubling by 2050, although its overall share of the generation mix is seen at below 10pc in 2050.

"In advanced economies, decisions need to be made about the construction and the large number of nuclear power plants that may be retired over the next decade absent action to extend their lifetimes and make the required investment," the report said.

In Europe, Germany's nuclear phase-out plan will see it reduce its fleet by 4GW by the end of this year and eradicate it completely by the end of 2022. France is due to reduce nuclear's share of its energy mix to 50pc by 2035 from around 72pc now as part of plans set out in its latest multi-year energy plan. But it has also committed to allocate €470mn ($575mn) to nuclear power with a focus on developing small and medium reactor capacity. Other European countries such as Belgium have also pledged an end to nuclear generation by 2025.

Without further lifetime extensions and new projects beyond those already under construction, nuclear output in advanced economies will decline by two-thirds over the next two decades. An average of 6 GW/yr of new nuclear capacity came on line in 2011-20, but this has to increase to 24 GW/yr in the net zero scenario by 2030, the report said.

Failing to take decisions on this matter could jeopardise the 2050 goal by placing an additional burden on a faster expansion of renewable plants, the IEA said. That burden would fall mainly on solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power, with a need for 2,400GW more capacity than in the net zero scenario.

Under that scenario, global renewables capacity more than triples by 2030 and increases ninefold by 2050. This means adding more than 600 GW/yr of solar capacity in 2030-50 and 340 GW/yr of wind capacity, including replacements. And offshore wind will become increasingly important, accounting for over 20pc of total wind additions in 2021-50, compared with 7pc in 2020.

The IEA estimates that renewables will account for 29pc of electricity generation in 2020 but nearly 70pc in 2050, compared with about 55pc in a stated-policies scenario, as solar PV and wind race ahead of all other sources.

CCUS deployment

The report also highlights the importance of CCUS to retrofit existing coal and gas‐fired power plants or to co‐fire high shares of hydrogen‐based fuels.

"Governments face several key decisions in the electricity sector if they are to follow the pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 envisioned in the NZE [net zero emissions] scenario, particularly about how to best use existing power plants," it said.

For retrofits of coal or gas‐fired capacity — with carbon capture, co‐firing with hydrogen‐based fuels or with full conversion — decisions are needed to support first‐of‐a‐kind projects by 2030 before widespread retirement of unabated plants becomes necessary, it added.

Coal‐fired plants should be phased out completely by 2040 unless retrofitted, starting with the least‐efficient designs by 2030. This would require shutting 870GW of subcritical coal-fired capacity globally. By 2040, all large‐scale oil‐fired power plants should be phased out. Gas‐fired generation remains an important part of electricity supply through to 2050, but strong government support will be needed to ensure that CCUS is deployed soon and on a large scale, the report said.

On the hydrogen side, the IEA's net zero scenario sees hydrogen‐based fuels generating 900TWh of electricity in 2030 and 1,700TWh in 2050 — about 2.5pc of global generation in both years.

Final consumption of electricity increases by 25pc in 2020-30, and by 2050 is more than double the level in 2020. The share of electricity in global final energy consumption jumps from 20pc in 2020 to 26pc in 2030 and to around 50pc in 2050, the IEA estimates.

By Jacqueline Echevarría