News
31/12/25
Viewpoint: Pemex fuel imports likely lower in 2026
Mexico City, 31 December (Argus) — Mexico's state-owned Pemex will likely reduce
its road fuel imports in 2026 as domestic refining output rises and government
policy continues to prioritize Mexican energy sovereignty, even as operational
challenges in the national refining system persist. Mexico's president Claudia
Sheinbaum in 2024 and 2025 has continued the policy goal of her predecessor,
former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to strengthen Pemex and boost the
company's refined fuel production so the country can become less dependent on
imports. The government's flagship Dos Bocas refinery, officially inaugurated in
2022, is projected to ramp up production next year, adding incremental volumes
of gasoline and diesel to the domestic supply pool. Combined with ongoing
upgrades at existing plants, these moves aim to curb reliance on fuel sourced
from the US Gulf coast. For January-October, Pemex produced about 552,000 b/d of
gasoline and diesel, according to the most recent Pemex data, up by 5pc from
473,000 b/d for the same period one year earlier. One of the main factors in
driving this uptick in production of refined fuels is the increasing ramp-up of
the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery. Olmeca produced 70,000 b/d of gasoline and
81,000 b/d of diesel in October, Pemex data show, making the refinery a
significant contributor to Pemex's increased road fuels output in recent months.
Olmeca is not the only refinery boasting improved output. The 315,000 b/d Tula
refinery has improved its gasoline and diesel yields this year while reducing
fuel oil output, a shift driven by equipment upgrades, maintenance and a lighter
crude slate — even before its long-delayed new coker unit starts. Rising
throughput at the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery has also been a boon for the
company. The two refineries used 66pc and 68pc of their capacity for crude
throughput in October, figures at least 10 percentage points higher than
Mexico's other five domestic refineries. With this greater output, Pemex has
decreased its reliance on imports. The company imported an average of 414,000
b/d of refined fuels from January-October, down by 22pc from 534,000 b/d for the
same period one year prior, driven by significantly lower diesel imports. Diesel
imports fell to 83,000 b/d during that time, down by 42pc from 143,000 b/d the
year before. Pemex faces ongoing difficulties Yet the government's goal is not
only to diminish fuel imports, it is to become entirely self-sufficient for
gasoline and diesel. In an energy-sector plan published on 22 December, Mexico's
energy ministry says it aims to raise refinery throughput rates from the current
average of 56pc to 80pc by 2030. But structural challenges mean this will be
difficult for Pemex to achieve. The company said in August it will reduce its
official nameplate capacity from 1.615mn b/d to 1.4mn b/d to reflect ongoing
reconfiguration efforts and compliance with environmental rules. Most of Pemex's
refineries are more than 40 years old and were designed to process lighter
crudes, which Pemex produces in declining volumes. Increasing utilization is
difficult because of outdated infrastructure and mismatched crude
specifications, market sources say. The 285,000 b/d Minatitlan refinery, last
modernized in 2003, and the 190,000 b/d Madero refinery, built in 1914,
exemplify these challenges. Core equipment, such as coking units at Minatitlan,
is not functioning properly, sources said. Pemex's efforts to resolve
operational issues are hampered by tight finances, with reported debt near
$100bn at the end of the third quarter. Government support could trim this to
$80bn by 2027, according to Moody's Ratings, but analysts see little room for
further improvement. Significant investment would be needed to modernize the
refining system, yet Pemex's integrated structure leaves future allocations for
refining unclear. The ramp-up at Olmeca has temporarily lifted Mexico's refining
output and curbed imports, but persistent weaknesses at legacy plants remain a
key barrier to fuel self-sufficiency. Without sustained investment, Pemex's
refineries are likely to continue running at low rates, keeping Mexico reliant
on imports despite its policy goals. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request
more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group
. All rights reserved.
