Canada's improved harvest in 2022-23 has boosted grain and oilseed stocks year on year but the barley inventory rose at a faster rate than wheat and canola, reflecting the crop's weaker export pace, Statistics Canada data show.
Canadian barley stocks stood at 5.07mn t on 31 December, up from 3.16mn t a year ago. This was above an average market expectation of 4.5mn t and was the only crop to see such divergence from earlier unofficial estimates.
In contrast, total wheat stocks — including soft and durum — were at 22.29mn t, up from 16.8mn t a year ago but nearly fully in line with an average market expectation of 22.3mn t. At the same time, canola inventories totalled 11.36mn t, against an average market estimate of 11.7mn t.
Barley stocks rose at a faster rate than wheat despite both crops seeing a similar year-on-year recovery in percentage terms. Canada's barley harvest rose to 9.99mn t for the 2022-23 marketing year (August-July) from 6.98mn t a year ago, while spring wheat production — the nation's main wheat crop — reached 25.7mn t, against 16.2mn t in 2021-22.
But this was in line with a smaller export recovery for barley. Canada's barley shipments reached 1.69mn t so far this season, up from 1.57mn t the same time a year ago, according to Canadian Grain Commission data. This largely lagged the year-on-year rise in soft and durum wheat — up to 9.92mn t and 2.7mn t from a respective 5.83mn t and 2.7mn t a year ago.
Recovery in barley exports has been pressured by weak interest from China, which receives up to 90pc of Canada's global shipments of crop. Exports to China remained broadly unchanged on the year at 1.45mn t over August-December — the latest period for which a country breakdown is available. In contrast, Canada's wheat and canola shipments have seen sharp increases on the year — to China but also globally.
China's sluggish barley purchase pace brought the nation's receipts of crop to a nine-year low over July-December at just 1.99mn t, down from 6.83mn t in 2021-22.
Chinese buyers have shown renewed interest in barley purchases from the global markets this month but this is said to focus primarily on French origin.
Meanwhile, barley is seeing increased demand from Canada's livestock producers, according to Statistics Canada, which might have prompted farmers to keep the crop in stocks. This is as cattle producers in the prairies are returning to barley as feed grain, having partially opted for domestic wheat or corn imports from the US last year.
