Singapore B24 bunker prices decline on Ucome oversupply

B24 biofuel bunker prices in Singapore have weakened since 31 January, relative to very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), because of abundant used-cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) supply.

Ucome is the blend's main biofuel component. The premium of B24 to delivered VLSFO bunkers in Singapore was assessed at $285.84/t on 31 January — the day Argus launched price assessments — and softened to an average of $260.79/t in February, according to Argus data. The premium has weakened further to an average of $229.76/t over 1-29 March.

This is largely because of plentiful Ucome supplies from China, the main import source for Singapore's B24 blend. China has been unable to export more to Europe, as the latter has been oversupplied for a while, said market sources.

Over-blending in the European road transport sector in the second half of last year had already squashed demand for Chinese Ucome. Traders were then taken aback when Chinese customs data showed year-on-year biodiesel exports more than double in the first two months of 2023 to 455,000t, with an all-time monthly high of 263,000t in January.

Almost all of these volumes were flowing to Europe and look set to add to already ample supplies of product that are double-counted towards European renewable transport fuel mandates — of which Ucome is one. This has sent Chinese prices plummeting by $355/t since 20 January to $1,030/t fob by 23 March, the lowest level since December 2020.

But there may be signs the market has bottomed out as prices recovered to $1,125/t fob China on 29 March. Firstly, Ucome demand traditionally picks up towards summer, with its higher cold filter plugging point properties making it more ideal for warmer weather use on the road. In addition, European prices are hovering around more than two-year lows, closing the arbitrage from Asia and leading several producers on both sides to temporarily slow production or shut, rather than operate at a loss, which should go some way towards rebalancing the market over the next few weeks and months.

Prices for B24 blends based on palm oil methyl ester (PME) have also emerged in the market, with discounts to Ucome blends at around $60-80/t.

Abundant palm supplies and numerous biodiesel production facilities in Indonesia and Malaysia make grades produced from the vegetable oil much cheaper than Ucome. Demand for PME is also not nearly as high outside of its two main production centers, and does not have the double-counting incentive that Ucome has in Europe. The EU in fact plans to phase out palm completely from its renewable fuels pool by 2030.

But Ucome remains the dominant bio-component in bunker blends in Singapore, despite there currently being no regulatory restrictions on what can be mixed into a B24 blend. This is because many major stakeholders share the EU's reservations over palm-based grades on perceived sustainability issues and concerns over deforestation, despite palm oil's cost advantages.

Ucome is blended with high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) as well as low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO), but those blends are a very small part of the market, say market participants.

The weaker Ucome prices have resulted in B24 prices being assessed almost at parity with LSMGO bunkers on some days, which could further stimulate demand in the city-state. The premium of B24 to LSMGO so far in March has averaged $54.78/t.

In a speech given earlier this year, Singapore's minister of transport S Iswaran said that Singapore in 2022 sold 140,000t of biofuel bunkers, compared to just 16,000t of LNG bunkers.

Biofuels are a popular way for shipping companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and meet the International Maritime Organization's decarbonisation goals, as they are a "plug and play solution" that can be quickly deployed.

By Sammy Six and Amandeep Parmar