UK hydrogen funding round leaves investors waiting
Many private-sector hydrogen investors may turn their attention away from the UK after the government this week decided to fund only a proportion of the viable projects that had been proposed, industry participants have said.
The UK will provide subsidies for two newbuilds and one retrofit blue hydrogen project. But it decided not to fund plants proposed by Norway's state-controlled Equinor and UK-based Kellas Midstream in this round. And the government has yet to confirm which UK region will be next to get carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities to enable blue hydrogen plants.
The government's decision to fund 250MW of electrolytic projects means around 40pc of the shortlisted 408MW capacity will not get funding in this round. The government's 20-project shortlist had already snubbed around half the 41 projects that applied.
"A lot of very good, investable projects have gone unfunded… at a time of such high international competitiveness," said industry body Hydrogen UK's chief executive Clare Jackson. "It's a risk that you just cannot afford to take."
German firm Siemens Energy's head of market and government affairs for the UK and Ireland, Matthew Knight, agreed.
"Developers of some very credible hydrogen projects who have not made the cut now need to reconsider their options," he said. "The global race for hydrogen is well underway as the UK is tying its shoelaces."
Knight said the government is moving too slowly.
"The announced shortlist of 20 green hydrogen projects only signals the start of discussions with developers," he said. "Award of contracts has been put back a further six months, to the end of 2023."
The pace means the UK will be starting production from hydrogen projects in 2025 at the earliest, with the average size of the shortlisted projects around 20MW. Some European countries could by then host single hydrogen projects that are 10 times larger. These include Shell's Hydrogen Holland plant in the Netherlands, for which a FID has been taken, and German utility RWE's Lingen electrolyser site, which are both scheduled to reach 200MW electrolyser capacity by 2025.
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Asia-Pacific faces $815bn/yr green financing shortfall
Asia-Pacific faces $815bn/yr green financing shortfall
Singapore, 18 September (Argus) — Asia-Pacific holds significant investment opportunities in the energy transition, but obstacles such as insufficient public funding, lack of regulation and investment risks have resulted in a financing shortfall in the region. The Asia-Pacific region needs at least $1.1 trillion/yr in climate financing, but actual investment falls short by at least $815bn/yr, said Singapore's ambassador for climate action Ravi Menon at a conference in Singapore last week, referencing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). There is existing green funding in the region such as from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which estimated its investments amounted to $10.7bn in 2023, and bilateral arrangements like the $600mn India-Japan fund, established by India's National Investment and Infrastructure Fund and Japan Bank for International Co-operation in October 2023. But this is insufficient, especially as the region's energy demand is only set to rise further. Energy demand in Asia is growing by 2.9pc/yr, the highest of any region in the world, said Menon. Renewables such as solar and wind are now more cost-competitive than fossil fuels, but the region needs more grid connectivity and capacity to make renewable energy a viable option. Building transmission lines and energy storage in the region alone will cost about $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, added Menon. Obstacles to capital flows Total energy investment worldwide is expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2024, with about $2 trillion going to clean technologies and slightly over $1 trillion toward fossil fuels, according to the IEA's World Energy Investment 2024 report. Fossil fuel financing by the world's 60 largest banks rose to $705bn in 2023 , up by 4.8pc from $673bn in 2022, with the rise largely driven by LNG financing. The continued investments in fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based technologies will lead to more carbon-intensive infrastructure, divert capital from clean energy alternatives and undermine climate targets, derailing Asia-Pacific from its energy transition goals. Emerging economies typically have "many developmental needs" to take care of, hence public financing in these countries cannot shoulder the overall trajectory of growth of energy transition financing, said the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis' (IEEFA) sustainable finance and climate risk research lead Shantanu Srivastava at the IEEFA Energy Finance 2024 conference earlier this month. Many smaller economies rely on financing from multilateral development banks (MDBs), but this comes in "bits and pieces" and with many strings attached, he added. It is hence essential to bring in private capital, but the region faces challenges in attracting private investments. The lack of a sound climate information architecture hampers accurate assessment and tracking of climate risks, which impedes investors' ability to make decisions and prevents the scale-up of climate finance, according to the IMF. Other measurable risks — such as political risk, credit risk, and foreign exchange risk — often significantly raise the risk premium of investments into the region. Investors tend to expect higher returns on investments with higher risk premiums, but there are limited investment opportunities available which would provide such returns and this prevents foreign capital from scaling, according to Srivastava. Insufficient regulatory and government measures in the region as well as the inconsistency of existing ones also deter private investors, as these increase project execution risks. Policy continuity and long-term visibility of what the country is going to do is essential as a "policy flip-flop" deters investor confidence, Srivastava said. Tools to attract more climate finance Blended finance is necessary to mobilise private capital for Asia's energy transition, according to Menon. Governments and development finance institutions could provide concessional or risk capital in the form of grants and limited guarantees, while MDBs can provide technical assistance in the form of development expertise, capacity building and institutional support, he said. Finance can also be encouraged through sovereign sustainable bonds, which can stimulate local sustainable bond markets by setting long-term price benchmarks, boosting liquidity, and serving as models for private issuers, according to IEEFA. The issuance of these bonds also signal a dedicated government commitment to sustainability goals and can drive the development of a robust and transparent regulatory environment, IEEFA added. This is crucial for the long-term growth and stability of the region's sustainable bond markets, which is essential for boosting investors' confidence. Another method is through revenue generation tools, such as carbon pricing and carbon taxes, according to the Financing Just Transition Through Emission Trading Systems report released earlier this month by think-tank Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI). Carbon pricing sends a strong signal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and indicates the government's intent to intensify efforts related to energy transition, which encourages private capital flow, stated the ASPI report. Carbon pricing also has the potential to generate substantial revenue, which can be allocated to climate funds to support low-carbon technology innovation and aid enterprises in making green investments, to aid low-carbon transition efforts, the ASPI report added. By Joey Chan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German CCS debate heats up as government advances
German CCS debate heats up as government advances
Berlin, 17 September (Argus) — The debate on carbon capture and storage (CCS) is heating up in Germany, as the federal government finalises its carbon management strategy and environmental groups reiterate their warnings on the associated risks. Environmental group Greenpeace today slammed Berlin's plan to support CCS technology as part of its nascent carbon management strategy. Greenpeace pointed to the technical risks and high costs, and that Europe's only larger CCS sites — Norway's Sleipner and Snohvit — have already encountered "unexpected" problems. Germany's federal ministry of economic affairs and climate action stressed in a strategy paper last week that CCS is categorised as safe and "not a high-risk technology". The ministry started consultations last week on its strategy with other relevant ministries, with a draft to be sent to parliament in the next few weeks. The paper stresses that funding will be available only for dealing with technically unavoidable and "hard-to-abate" emissions, based on a "scoring model" developed by the economy ministry that analyses CCS use based on costs, technological availability, avoidance potential, emission source and lock-in risk. The cement, lime and thermal waste treatment sectors have been given an "A" score, as their emissions are deemed "technically unavoidable", with steam crackers scoring a "B", allowing these sectors to be considered eligible for support. Blue hydrogen, the glass industry and gas-based direct reduced iron (DRI) technology in the steel industry are rated "C", and aluminium, gas-fired power plants, combined-heat-and power (CHP) plants, and blast furnace technology in the steel industry are rated "D". The development of CO2 infrastructure should be "private-sector and market-driven" and "as competitive as possible", the paper said, but some "hedging mechanisms" for investors may be necessary in the "ramp-up" phase to mitigate the risks for first movers and leverage the long-term potential for economies of scale. Support would go beyond Germany's carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs), and possibly imply some kind of state backing via public bank KfW. CCfDs are among the existing funding instruments planned for certain CCS applications for larger industry firms, along with decarbonisation aid for medium-sized companies presented last month . The ministry plans to set up a CO2 infrastructure working group to co-ordinate planning, possibly alongside other working groups on areas such as CO2 use or storage. The annual quantities of CO2 to be sequestered in Germany are estimated at 34mn-73mn t of CO2 in 2045. Germany's amended draft carbon storage bill, which forms the legal framework for the pipeline-based transport and storage of CO2, is now under parliamentary scrutiny. And Germany will deal with carbon removal and the targets for "technical sinks" in its long-term strategy on negative emissions, which the government aims to present by the end of this year. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 29 presidency sets out initiatives, summit agenda
Cop 29 presidency sets out initiatives, summit agenda
London, 17 September (Argus) — The president-designate of the UN Cop 29 climate summit, Azerbaijan's Mukhtar Babayev, has set out 14 initiatives and a detailed agenda for the conference, including a new focus on methane reduction and tackling barriers to a "clean hydrogen" market. There is an "urgent need to harmonise international frameworks, regulations and standards to create viable business models" for hydrogen, Babayev said. The Cop 29 presidency will build on the declaration of intent on mutual recognition of hydrogen certification schemes, made at Cop 28 last year, it said. It plans to launch a framework to set priorities ahead of Cop 30, scheduled for November 2025 in Brazil. The Cop 29 presidency also aims to tackle "the growing problem of methane from organic waste", it said. Methane — a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) — is often a focus at Cop summits, although typically with an eye to the largest emitters, the agriculture and fossil fuel industries. Babayev has called for governments to commit to targets to cut methane from organic waste in their climate plans, as well as for more signatories of the Global Methane Pledge. The pledge, launched in 2021 at Cop 26, asks signatories to cut methane emissions by at least 30pc by 2030, from 2020 levels. The Cop 29 presidency has also developed a two-pronged pledge, which seeks to scale up global installed energy storage capacity to 1.5TW by 2030 and add or refurbish more than 80mn km of power grid by 2040. It has developed a "green energy zones and corridors" pledge as well, to maximise sustainable energy generation and ensure "cost-effective transmission over large distances and across borders". Babayev provided further details of a planned climate fund , which will be capitalised by fossil fuel producing countries and companies. "We believe that countries rich in natural resources should be at the forefront of those addressing climate change," Babayev said, noting that the direction came from Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev. The fund will be a public-private partnership, with "concessional and grant-based support to rapidly address the consequences of natural disasters" in developing countries, Babayev said. It will "provide offtake agreement guarantees for small and medium-sized renewable energy producers and first-loss capital for green industrial projects", with a focus on food and agriculture, he said. Cop 29 is set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan on 11-22 November. It will be the first Cop hosted in the Caucasus region, Babayev noted. He flagged the "extreme heat [and] water scarcity" the region faces, but also pointed to its wind and solar power potential. Topics of other programmes set out today include water, climate action in tourism and a peace initiative which emphasised the "interplay between conflict and climate change". By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
London, 17 September (Argus) — Global supply of clean hydrogen could reach 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, up from less than 1mn t/yr currently online, according to industry body the Hydrogen Council. This is well short of global government targets and suggests supply will remain far below estimates of what is needed to combat climate change. Announced projects could provide 48mn t/yr of capacity by 2030, of which around 75pc would be renewable hydrogen and the remainder 'low-carbon' output from natural gas with carbon capture and storage, the association said in its Hydrogen Insights 2024 report published today. But only 4.6mn t/yr of this has moved to a final investment decision (FID) or beyond and "natural attrition" — prioritising the most viable projects — means many of the announced ventures will not materialise as planned, the Hydrogen Council said. A "probability adjustment", based on completion rates for other renewables projects, suggests only around 30pc of the announced capacity will be operational by 2030, the group predicts, although the 12mn-18mn t/yr estimate does not factor in potential future announcements. If these forecasts materialise, governments around the world are bound to spectacularly miss production targets set for 2030. The EU and the US are targeting 10mn t/yr of domestic production each, India 5mn t/yr, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE have goals for at least 6.5mn t/yr between them. Scores of other countries have ambitious goals. The forecast would also fall far short of climate change imperatives. Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA estimated last year that 69mn t/yr of clean hydrogen would be needed by 2030 to put the world on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. The Hydrogen Council puts this at 75mn t/yr. The Hydrogen Council has pointed to global macroeconomic headwinds as a key reason for slow progress, along with uncertain regulation within the sector. A slew of recent project cancellations have counteracted the optimism arising from an increased number of FIDs . Growing up Still, the industry has shown some encouraging signs of maturity, even if it is not on track to meet the heady targets set by many governments and companies, the Hydrogen Council said. Committed funds for hydrogen projects past FID, being built, or in operation was $75bn across 434 projects as of May 2024, compared with $10bn across 102 projects in 2020, it said. The $75bn is nearly double the $39bn in this category as of October 2023. There was only a 15pc increase in the combined value of projects in the 'announced' category, to $303bn from $259bn, over the same period, signalling the pace towards realisation of projects is picking up. The near double growth in 'committed' funds was driven 60pc by investments in end-use, 40pc in infrastructure, and only 15pc by investments in hydrogen production. Investment decisions for end-use applications grew several times over between October 2023 and May 2024. This may satisfy market participants' repeated calls for a government focus on stimulating demand recently. But planned investments in end-use and infrastructure projects are lagging far behind what will be needed in a net-zero scenario, the Hydrogen Council said. Announced investments in end-use projects is $145bn below what is required by 2030, and midstream infrastructure is trailing by $190bn. But announced investments in production projects this year for the first time surpassed what will be necessary, with a $15bn surplus — although much of this could fall by the wayside. "With the current announced investments and the growth observed since last publication, investments are behind the required net-zero pathways with net-zero targets unlikely to be met," the Hydrogen Council said. By Aidan Lea Assumptions for probability adjustments % Project stage Assumed success rate In operation 100 Under construction 100 Post-FID 99 Front end engineering design 40-80 Feasibility study 5-40 Announced 0-20 - Hydrogen Council Global announced electrolyser capacity through 2030 GW As of Announced capacity Dec-20 55 Dec-21 115 May-22 175 Jan-23 230 Oct-23 305 May-24 375 - Hydrogen Council * based on the Hydrogen Council's probability adjustment, globally installed electrolysis capacity could reach 90GW by 2030 Investments until 2030 by project stage $bn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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