There is a "substantial policy gap" to reach the UK's 2030 emissions reduction goal, as well as a lack of evidence to support the government's assurances that net zero targets will be met, UK parliamentary advisory group the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today.
The independent group, which scrutinises UK government climate policy and reports on progress, released its assessment of prime minister Rishi Sunak's recent change in approach to some net zero policies. The UK has a legally-binding goal of net zero emissions by 2050, with an interim target to cut emissions by at least 68pc by 2030, from a 1990 baseline.
"We remain concerned about the likelihood of achieving the UK's future targets… Around a fifth of the required emissions reductions to 2030 are covered by plans that we assess as insufficient. Recent policy announcements were not accompanied by estimates of their effect on future emissions, nor evidence", CCC chair Piers Forster said. "We did not have enough information to assess the full effects of some of the proposed policy measures", the committee said.
The CCC's most recent report, in June, warned that the UK was off track to meet climate goals. It today welcomed announcements made since then on the zero emissions vehicle mandate and the deal for electrification of Tata Steel's Port Talbot site, but found that other changes will increase costs for consumers and could jeopardise investment and supply chain development.
The changes to buildings decarbonisation will make reaching net zero targets harder, while pushing up energy bills for consumers, the CCC found. It noted that the increased grant for heat pumps — from £5,000 ($6,149) to £7,500 — "has not been accompanied by a larger budget and will, therefore, serve fewer homes." And the delay to the ban on new gasoline and diesel vehicles will also hit households. "Electric vehicles will be significantly cheaper than petrol and diesel vehicles to own and operate over their lifetimes, so any undermining of their roll-out will ultimately increase costs", the committee said.
The CCC noted a "welcome" commitment to changing the process for electricity grid connections in Sunak's September speech, though details are yet to be released. But it is "imperative that policy is adjusted" for offshore wind, it said. The UK's most recent contracts for difference round resulted in no awards for the technology after industry warned that the strike price was too low.
Forster urged the government "to adopt greater transparency in updating its analysis at the time of major announcements" — a point that Conservative member of parliament and chair of parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) Philip Dunne also noted. Sunak's policy announcements were made while parliament was in recess, Dunne wrote on 29 September. "Parliamentary scrutiny is one of the cornerstones of our democracy", he added.
The EAC called for a revised carbon budget delivery plan and for Sunak "to avoid falling into the trap of presenting net zero as an all-or-nothing, binary choice".
