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Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will serve as Brazil's president for another four-year term, after beating senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. With nearly 100pc of votes counted, Lula led Bolsonaro with over 51.77pc of votes. Lula becomes the first in Brazil's history to win a presidential election after trailing in the first round of voting. He received 45.16pc of votes on 4 October, trailing Bolsonaro's 47pc. This will be Lula's fourth stint as Brazil's president. He first served two terms in 2003-2011. Lula's campaign focused on social media following his first-round defeat. Street demonstrations, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro — Brazil's most populous cities — may have also given him a boost. The final televised debate, held on 23 October, may have also helped him swing votes. Fact-checking agencies showed him saying more truthful statements than Bolsonaro, which may have weakened his adversary's campaign. The second round of voting saw fewer absentee voters as well. Around 21pc of voters abstained in the first round, versus around 19pc in the second round. Around 3mn people additional people showed up to vote compared with the first round, and Lula obtained 10mn votes more than in the first round. Voting delays Voting booths stayed open two hours later than usual after both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties requested an extension. Lula's party claimed that problems in public transport denied voters the chance to vote. The federal police arrested Pablo Souza, the mobility secretary of Salvador — the capital of Bahia state, historically a left-leaning state — for reducing the amount of buses available on Sunday. Bolsonaro's party requested the extension in voting hours because of rains in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states. Flavio Bolsonaro's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro — a former congressman who has been in the US since March 2025 and was convicted by the supreme court of coercion with the US to interfere in his father's trial — said before the elections that the candidate Bolsonaro would also head to the US if defeated in the elections. It is still unclear whether Flavio Bolsonaro will remain in Brazil or not. The candidate had yet to concede defeat as of 8:30pm ET. Backing Petrobras During his 2023-2026 term, Lula put state-controlled Petrobras at the center of his energy policy, seeking to broaden the firm's scope. He ended the company's import price parity principle — in a bid to control fuel prices — and his predecessor's policy of selling assets. He returned Petrobras to markets such as fertilizer production . He also spoke in favor of increasing oil and gas production, while also seeking to put it in the center of Brazil's energy transition. Deforestation also fell during his term , after Lula reversed policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro — Flavio's father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro would have likely sought to win amnesty for his father, but that is unlikely to take place now that Lula will remain as president. Lula will also be responsible for picking four or five supreme court judges in the next four years. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Some of Lula's main campaign promises dealt with the economy, including maintaining the current fiscal framework while preserving room for public investment, expanding infrastructure spending, advancing the government's industrial policy and mobilizing investment for transitions to cleaner energy. Adversaries heavily criticized his fiscal framework, as Brazil's debt — including the federal, state and municipal governments — reached R11.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in August, up from R7.2 trillion at the end of 2022. Lula also promises to continue increasing the minimum wage, expand credit access for small- and medium-sized businesses, strengthen protections for app-based gig workers and pursue a more progressive tax system in which higher-income individuals contribute a larger share of taxes. But the heavily right-wing congress will probably be a hurdle for Lula to enact many of those promises. Lula's win puts Brazil as one of the sole countries in Latin America with a left-wing federal government, after Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia and others have elected right-wing presidents recently. Lula's relationship with the US and President Donald Trump were rocky at times , especially because of the tariffs imposed by the US president. Lula has been especially stern with the US' interest in Brazil's critical minerals. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico's clean energy rollout still lags Latam
Mexico's clean energy rollout still lags Latam
Mexico City, 23 October (Argus) — Mexico plans to nearly double its solar and wind power capacity to about 7.1GW by 2030, according to state utility CFE's sustainability plan, though it will still likely trail regional peers. The targeted asset push expands CFE's wind and solar footprint by 92pc against its combined wind and solar generation capacity baseline at the end of 2025, but dominant natural gas-fired generation is set to surge as well. Mexico's regulatory framework seeks to pivot from higher-emission fuels by targeting 15.2GW of total new clean energy capacity additions by 2030. This buildout ensures that clean energy accounts for 40pc of the total 38GW in new generation capacity slated to come on line under the current administration, according to the sustainability plan. Utility-scale solar and wind installations anchor the expansion. CFE's five-year development portfolio features nine solar plants totaling 4.67GW and seven wind farms totaling 2.47GW. The state also holds a 9.1GW pool of unallocated capacity under the plan. This includes 4.5GW of solar, 2.2GW of wind, 1.7GW of cogeneration and 0.8GW split across geothermal, solar thermal and hydrogen technologies. Despite the multi-GW solar and wind additions, total generation from all renewable and clean sources will grow by only 9pc by 2030 from a 2025 baseline, according to the sustainability plan. Slowing the curve This low growth rate reflects near-term fiscal tightening. The proposed federal budget places an inflation-adjusted 8.5pc cut on CFE's physical investment cap, Mexican public policy think tank (IMCO) said in an analysis. The federal proposal restricts CFE's direct physical investment budget to Ps61bn ($3.05bn), forcing the utility to shift approximately 55pc of its generation and grid capital expenditures to private-sector financing mechanisms. To preserve the required 54:46 public-private equity split, CFE will rely on $16.7bn in mixed-participation contracts with the private sector to shoulder utility-scale renewable deployment outside the federal budget. This reliance on complex financing structures slows the deployment curve of renewable energy. Gross clean energy output is projected to rise to 40.3TWh next year from 39.9TWh this year, according to the sustainability plan. Output will then climb to 44.5TWh two years later and peak at 46.6TWh in three years before dropping to 46.2TWh at the end of the decade, according to CFE's five-year plan. The state utility projects the drop-off will even out as construction delays push commercial start dates for a portion of the asset pool beyond 2030. The data baseline does not account for future tenders. But resulting lag widens the gap against regional peers chasing green manufacturing capital. Mexico targets a 36pc clean energy share in its total power matrix by 2030, according to the five-year plan. In contrast, Brazil already operates an electricity matrix that is 86.5pc from renewable energies today, while Colombia sits at 70pc, both replete with massive hydropower capacity, respective government plans show. Chile's is at 61pc, about split between hydropower and variable renewable energy. But by 2030, frameworks may have pushed Brazil to 92.5pc, Colombia to 84.1pc and Chile to 80pc cleaner power. Gas-fired generation endures To support this transition, state-owned Pemex is also coordinating with CFE to switch traditional thermal generation to natural gas-fired combined cycle technology from petroleum. This includes at CFE's Tula power plant, a major pollution contributor for nearby Mexico City, and its Salamanca, Altamira and Mazatlan plants. While traditional coal and fuel oil are scaled back, the net surge in natural gas generation outpaces the 15.2GW clean energy additions. Under the sustainability plan, combined-cycle gas turbine generation surges by 72pc over its 2025 baseline by 2030, representing 115.08 TWh of output. Clean energy generation rises only 9pc/yr, demonstrating that the grid remains structurally anchored to gas infrastructure. By James Young Share of generation from renewable energies % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China's climate influence faces coal test
China's climate influence faces coal test
Expectations of greater Chinese climate leadership may run ahead of Beijing's own ambitions Beijing, 24 October (Argus) — China's growing dominance in clean-energy manufacturing and deployment is increasing its influence over the global energy transition. But its expanding coal-fired power fleet sits at odds with expectations that Beijing could assume a larger leadership role at future UN climate conferences. The US' Paris agreement exit and concerns about economic growth in Europe have put the spotlight on China, with global climate goals in peril. Global renewable capacity more than doubled between 2016 and 2025, while renewable generation rose by 67pc, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. China accounted for more than half of global solar capacity and nearly half of global wind capacity in 2025 — its solar capacity reached 1,202GW and wind capacity 641GW — underscoring its central role in the energy transition. China's climate contribution extends beyond its emissions trajectory. Its firms are central to supply chains for solar modules, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable fuels, and its manufacturing scale has helped lower the cost of clean tech. But it also operates the world's largest coal-fired power fleet and critics argue that industrial influence alone is not enough. Climate leadership ultimately requires a credible pathway to reducing fossil fuel use and emissions, observers say. But Beijing has shown little desire for a larger political role in climate governance. While speculation over a bid to host a future Cop has surfaced, China's official messaging still emphasises its developing-country status and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The key test for China is whether clean power growth is sufficient to displace fossil fuel-based generation rather than simply meeting rising energy demand, UK-based think-tank Ember says. Clean energy met all China's incremental power demand in 2025 and coal-fired output fell, according to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and US-based Global Energy Monitor. But China still added the most coal capacity in a decade, and the expansion continued in 2026, with 30GW commissioned in January-June, up by 43pc on the year. Work began on another 25.4GW, while just 2.7GW was retired, according to the two organisations. But rapidly retiring coal assets would create economic and reliability challenges. Beijing's path Beijing's response is not to pursue a European-style coal-retirement strategy. Instead, policymakers are looking to retain a substantial coal fleet while expanding renewables, storage and grid infrastructure. China's 2025-27 coal-fired power upgrade plan calls for greater flexibility to accommodate renewables, and another low-carbon transformation plan promotes biomass and ammonia co-firing and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Questions remain over whether this pathway is a credible route to decarbonisation, as some analysts warn that ammonia co-firing and other retrofits could prolong the life of coal assets. Rather than pursuing leadership through international rule-setting or a fossil fuel phase-out agenda, China has sought to shape the transition through investment, industrial capacity and technology deployment. But for some western governments and climate groups, leadership is increasingly measured by political commitments, fossil fuel policies and international diplomacy. These competing visions in an era where technology deployment, industrial capability and diplomatic ambition do not always move at the same pace may help explain China's lack of enthusiasm for a greater political part. As China's role in the transition expands, the question may not be whether it can become a climate leader without a coal phase-out, but whether it is actually seeking the kind of climate leadership that much of the world increasingly expects it to assume. Top 5 solar producers 2025 Top 5 wind energy producers 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
The Hormuz crisis has sparked interest in quick wins that could also have long-term benefits, writes Caroline Varin Edinburgh, 23 October (Argus) — Talks on transitioning from fossil fuels are unlikely to progress in official UN Cop 31 summit negotiations in Antalya, Turkey. But energy security concerns resulting from the US-Iran war are keeping the topic firmly on the international agenda. Initiatives such as a global roadmap to move away from fossil fuels, which the Brazilian UN Cop 30 presidency will present at this year's Cop 31 summit, will largely be dealt with outside of negotiations where decisions are taken by consensus. Major fossil fuel producers, which pushed back on the topic in Brazil last year, argue the transition was sufficiently addressed at Cop 28 in 2023 and that negotiations should focus on cutting emissions and not their sources. Discussions have stalled since Cop 28 concluded with a historic agreement on fossil fuels . This year may not be the time for transition discussions to be included in official Cop negotiations, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) senior policy advisor Natalie Jones says. Such talks would "toxify" agenda items and probably result in more deadlock, she says. "That is not to say that formal negotiations are devalued, but it's a realistic assessment of where we are at." Phasing out fossil fuels remains critical and will be discussed at Cop 31, Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said, adding that more countries will announce plans in Antalya. But this will happen as part of the informal summit's action agenda, where stakeholders meet to advance implementation. Turkey and Australia — presiding over Cop 31 — highlighted the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels, but have yet to lead by example. Australia is the world's second-largest coal exporter after Indonesia, while Turkey is the seventh-largest coal importer, according to the IEA. "It makes sense to strategically start to plan to overcome the issue of demand decline," IISD's Jones says. "Turkey and Australia could help to show the way. If there are no leaders that step up in this regard, I think it's going to be a real problem." Umit Sahin, head of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Centre, does not expect a push from Turkey towards major producers on the question of transitioning away from fossil fuels. "Turkey appears to have decided that [the topic] itself is not a place to go in the formal Cop negotiations and has decided to approach it through electrification — from an end-use point of view," he said. Energy crisis/opportunity But the energy security crisis stemming from the US-Iran war is supporting clean energy development because this field offers quick solutions that will ultimately benefit climate action, IEA executive director Fatih Birol says. Economies reliant on Middle East oil and gas scrambled to secure supplies and implement measures to mitigate disruption — energy conservation, direct subsidies and tax cuts, for example. The crisis has also sharpened political focus on electrification. The crisis is a lesson for consuming countries , and the resulting shift towards electrification will affect oil demand, TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne has said. The IEA puts the global demand reduction since the start of the conflict at more than 1bn bl, driven by steep declines in China . There will be no more turning back from clean energy, utility EDF UK's non-executive chair, Alex Chisholm, told the FT Energy Transition Summit earlier this month. This will not be enough to meet the Paris goals, Birol warned, although he said he is hopeful about an agreement on electrification at Cop 31. Turkey set a goal for its action agenda to increase electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 . But the call sits outside of formal negotiations. Arab countries have signalled that they see no need for a "universal" agreement under the informal action agenda. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global Clean & Conventional Ammonia Market Outlook
Global Clean & Conventional Ammonia Market Outlook
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European PE & PP Market Webinar: Key Drivers Shaping European Prices and Market Structure
European PE & PP Market Webinar: Key Drivers Shaping European Prices and Market Structure
