フレート／輸送
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アーガスでは世界各地におけるエネルギーの海上／河川輸送のフレート、パイプライン、鉄道輸送などの物流におけるデータサービスを提供しております。2020年から施行される船舶燃料の硫黄規制によって、どのような変革および構造改革がなされるのか盛んに議論されるに至っています。旧来の船舶用重油に対する需要の後退、および低硫黄軽油に対する需要の増加が予見されるなか、今後の船舶燃料がどのような方向に進んでいくのか今後の戦略立案に資する情報サービスを提供しております。
フレートサービスはタンカー、ドライバルク、ガス市場の貿易フローをカバーする３つの専用サービスで構成されています。各サービスは毎日のフレートインデックス、業界最新ニュース、市場分析、独占コンテンツを提供します。コモデティ価格と輸送コストをつなぎ、サプライチェーン全体像の把握を支援します。
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Q&A: Hormuz tensions put spotlight on marine insurance
Q&A: Hormuz tensions put spotlight on marine insurance
Singapore, 14 April (Argus) — As tensions in the Middle East disrupt global shipping routes, insurance has become a critical factor for vessel operators and cargo owners. George Grishin, chairman of UK-registered Lloyd's insurance broker Oakeshott Insurance Group, spoke with Argus on 13 April about how the shipping industry is responding to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the insurance options currently available, and the potential long-term implications that the US-Iran war could have for relations between shipowners and insurers. How has the insurance market reacted to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire? The announcement briefly encouraged insurers to return to the market, particularly for quoting war risk cover for vessels transiting high-risk areas, such as the strait of Hormuz. War risk premiums are extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments, and rates can change daily. A ceasefire needs to be stable and verifiable before insurers are willing to reduce prices or expand capacity. What is really happening is that insurers are reassessing risk in real time, and in some cases, they simply cannot accept it. There were reports that insurers withdrew cover entirely during the escalation. Is that accurate? Not exactly. Much of this confusion comes from a misunderstanding of different types of marine insurance. Physical damage to vessels and cargo is covered by hull and machinery (H&M) or war risks insurance. Protection and indemnity insurers (P&I) cover a shipowner's third-party liabilities, not damage to the ship itself. Typical P&I cover includes third-party liabilities, such as crew injury or pollution, for example. War risk insurance for physical damage has remained available in many cases, but often at a higher cost and with tighter conditions. How does war risk insurance work when a region is classified as high-risk? Once an area is listed by the Joint War Committee (JWC), war risk cover for calls in that area is automatically excluded. Shipowners or cargo owners then have to buy additional cover for specific voyages or periods, typically priced as a percentage of the vessel or cargo value and valid for just seven days. This applies to ports as well as sea passages. The most recent expansion of the listed areas prior to the current escalation took place in December 2023, when Guyana was added. The list was subsequently updated on 3 March 2026, with the inclusion of several countries that had not appeared on it for many years — Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. At the same time, the geographical scope was widened to cover parts of the Persian/Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, parts of the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea. What kind of costs are shipowners facing today? Additional war risks premium (AWRP) levels for tankers and bulk carriers stood at around 1pc on 13 April with a 35–50pc no claim bonus (NCB) applied to vessels remaining in the Mideast Gulf. NCB is a discount given by insurers if no claim is made during the period of cover. AWRPs for H&M in the Gulf of Oman and in the Bab el-Mandeb strait were reported at around 0.5pc and 0.75pc, respectively. Passage through the strait of Hormuz is considerably more complex. At one point during the ceasefire discussions, insurers quoted around 3pc of value for a single passage for a seven-day period on 10 April, but those quotes were quickly withdrawn. Why is the strait of Hormuz particularly difficult to insure? The probability of an incident is simply too high, especially for vessels carrying oil or gas. Insurers have to price risk based on probability, and in some scenarios the likelihood of a vessel being hit could be extremely high. Charging higher premiums of, for example, 25–50pc of vessel value would theoretically reflect that risk, but such rates are commercially unviable, no shipowner could afford them. In those cases, insurers may refuse to quote altogether. Are all vessels treated the same from an insurance perspective? No. Flag, ownership, and cargo type matter enormously. Indian- and Chinese-flagged vessels have faced fewer restrictions in recent weeks, and container ships and bulk carriers are generally seen as lower-risk than tankers. Insurers also scrutinise ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) and compliance very carefully before offering cover. Why do some owners still insure vessels that are stuck in port? This is where the London Blocking and Trapping Addendum becomes important. It extends war risk cover to situations where a vessel is unable to leave a port or waterway for a continuous agreed period, typically six or 12 months, due to war-related closure. If that period is exceeded, the vessel can be treated as a total loss, even without physical damage. Does blocking and trapping insurance require a separate policy? No. It is an extension of existing war risk cover. It costs more, but it protects against long-term immobilisation rather than just physical damage. This type of cover proved crucial for vessels trapped, for example, in Ukrainian ports in 2022–23, where some owners eventually received full compensation for their ships. Could recent events change the relationship between shipowners and insurers? Yes. Trust has been strained, particularly when owners see insurance becoming unavailable just when they need it most. But insurers face their own constraints — they cannot price risk at levels that are mathematically accurate but commercially impossible. The long-term challenge will be finding a sustainable balance between affordability and realistic risk pricing in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment. What needs to happen for insurance conditions to improve? Time and clarity. Insurers need a longer observation period to assess whether a ceasefire is genuinely holding. Only then will premiums stabilise and capacity return. Until that happens, insurance will remain costly, selective, and highly conditional. By Anna Cherkizova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA warns Hormuz oil export recovery will take months
IEA warns Hormuz oil export recovery will take months
London, 14 April (Argus) — Oil exports through the strait of Hormuz are likely to take around two months to stabilise once the waterway reopens, the IEA estimates. Disruptions to shipments through the strait due to the US-Iran war have forced producers in the Mideast Gulf to shut in part of their output because of limited alternative export routes. The IEA estimates that the shut-ins cut global oil supply by 10.1mn b/d in March and forecasts a further 2.9mn b/d decline in April. A sustained recovery in production depends on restoring exports through Hormuz. Laden tankers would first need to exit the Gulf, after which empty vessels inside the waterway would load cargoes and draw down stocks, the IEA said. "It will be impossible to start upstream production or refining unless there is a foreseeable loading programme with adequate available storage at ports," the IEA said. Tanker availability could slow that process. Around 390 vessels, including 210 laden tankers, were trapped in the strait when the conflict began on 28 February, the IEA said. Since then, a net 49 tankers have exited. Many ballast tankers waiting outside Hormuz have since moved to other markets, meaning it could take longer for ships to return to pick up the first cargoes once exports resume, the agency added. Iraq may face particular difficulties in restarting exports quickly because of limited storage capacity at its ports. Upstream constraints could further delay a production recovery. Half of Mideast Gulf oil fields have "sufficient reservoir pressure and fluid characteristics" to return to pre-war output within about two weeks once exports resume, rising to 80pc after roughly one month, the IEA said. The remaining 20pc may prove harder to restart because of issues such as "pressure depletion or flow impairment from wax or asphaltene deposition". Many of these more complex fields are in Iraq and Kuwait, the agency said, adding that some lost pre-war production may not return. "Some fields may require specialised oil field services, including workovers, coiled-tubing units, chemical treatments or perforation," the IEA said. Fields relying on secondary or enhanced oil recovery could face longer restart times because they depend on uninterrupted supplies of gas, power, steam and chemicals, the agency added. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production declines 'mn b/d Mar Feb Mar vs Feb Saudi Arabia 7.25 10.40 -3.15 Iraq 1.57 4.57 -3.00 Kuwait 1.19 2.54 -1.35 UAE 2.37 3.64 -1.27 Bahrain 0.04 0.18 -0.14 Iran 3.63 3.69 -0.06 source: IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US blockade could hit third of remaining Hormuz traffic
US blockade could hit third of remaining Hormuz traffic
London, 13 April (Argus) — As much as 36pc of all tanker traffic transiting the strait of Hormuz since the start of the US–Iran war either departed or were bound for Iranian ports, the sort of voyage Washington has indicated will be restricted from today as part of its naval blockade. Of the 148 tankers that have transited the strait since 28 February, Iranian-linked voyages accounted for 53. Among these were 20 very large crude carriers (VLCC), five Suezmax, two Aframax and ten Medium Range (MR). The US on Sunday said it will impose a naval blockade against vessels of all nationalities entering or departing Iranian ports, beginning at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) on 13 April. US president Donald Trump also warned ships complying with Iranian transit conditions, including the payment of tolls, could be stopped in international waters. The US plan is to allow navigation through the strait of Hormuz to and from non Iranian ports, much of which is being prevented by Iranian control of the strait. This move follows talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend that ended without agreement and failed to reopen the strait. Since a ceasefire declared on 7 April, the waterway has largely remained under Iranian control, and the few ships that have passed through it appear to have either paid an unofficial toll to Tehran — believed to be the equivalent of $1/bl for crude tankers — or to have made other arrangements with the Iranian government. Iran said it would respond to a US naval blockade of Hormuz by encouraging Yemen's Houthis to resume attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Tehran also threatened to target ports across the Mideast Gulf if its own facilities are attacked. The ceasefire agreement will be in place until 21 April, but it could be extended. By Erika Tsirikou Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shipowners shun Mideast Gulf despite peace efforts
Shipowners shun Mideast Gulf despite peace efforts
Singapore, 9 April (Argus) — The ceasefire in the US-Iran war has sparked cautious optimism among shipping market participants that more vessels could soon be able to exit the strait of Hormuz. But Mideast Gulf loadings are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, given high costs, the difficulty of securing insurance and the risk of continued attacks. The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on 7 April may offer some hope for vessels currently stranded in the Mideast Gulf, a freight analyst observed. "Yet the reality has not changed — the risks remain substantial and real for shipowners". Attacks on commercial shipping have brought transits through the strait of Hormuz to a near standstill since the war broke out on 28 February, severely curtailing exports of crude, oil products, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities. The Asia-Pacific region is the most heavily exposed to the supply disruptions. Governments in the region, including the Philippines , Malaysia and Thailand have held talks with Iran to guarantee the safe passage of some vessels through the strait. But these agreements appear to facilitate only ship exits, with shipowners and traders unconvinced the government-to-government deals — or the ceasefire — provide sufficient assurance for them to resume new loadings from the Mideast Gulf, shipbrokers noted. No-one is currently willing to be the first to exit the strait, an official at a South Korean refiner said. Iran is charging shipowners a fee of $1/bl for their vessels to pass through the strait, Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for Iran's oil, gas and petrochemical products exporters' union, told Argus today. Tehran is proposing a regional solution to the crisis , under which the proceeds of the vessel fees would be shared with other countries as war reparations, according to a bill being discussed in the country's parliament. But it is unclear if this will help smooth transits through the strait. The failure of an Indian charterer to secure a vessel for an Iraqi cargo this week encapsulates the continuing uncertainty. Indian state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) sought a Suezmax vessel on 7 April to load from Basrah to west coast India from 13 April. "Fixing with an India-based charterer should have provided [shipowners] sufficient confidence", one shipbroker said — especially given the Indian government held talks with Iran over two weeks ago, while Tehran on 4 April exempted Iraq from any restrictions imposed in the strait of Hormuz. But BPCL received no offers, even from Indian shipowners, and subsequently withdrew the cargo on 8 April. "This cargo had all the hallmarks of a relatively ‘easy fixture' but the risks [for shipowners] clearly overshadowed any interest toward it", an India-based shipbroker said. At least two other Mideast Gulf cargoes had to be withdrawn last week because the charterers were unable to secure offers from shipowners, Argus shipping data show. Risks remain More cargoes have emerged from the Mideast Gulf since the ceasefire. But a number of barriers are continuing to deter most shipowners from considering future loadings from the Mideast Gulf. "Yes, shipowners are likely to get good freight for Mideast Gulf shipments, but whether they actually get paid at the end remains a question", said another shipbroker, who reported incurring "significant demurrage" on one of its ships trapped in the Mideast Gulf. The freight clause in the charter-party did not clearly specify payment responsibilities in the event of war, leaving the shipowner "frustrated and locked in a dispute with the charterer", the shipbroker said. Securing insurance cover for the vessel and its cargo is also problematic. War risk insurance remains highly restrictive , with cover available only on a selective basis and largely limited to a small number of insurers, including some state-backed schemes. Any cover offered typically requires strong guarantees, sources said. Additional war risk premiums (AWRP) for the Mideast Gulf are at around 0.85pc of a vessel's hull and machinery value, with some cases at 0.55–0.75pc with a 50pc no claim bonus (NCB). AWRP rates are unlikely to ease immediately despite the ceasefire announcement, which will add further costs for shippers above significantly elevated freight rates, market participants said. Such difficulties mean there is little incentive for shipowners to seriously consider Mideast Gulf loadings, especially when they have other options available. "Freight rates in other regions have surged because of the Middle East conflict", a freight analyst said, "and that has offered opportunities outside the region for shipowners to secure attractive freight rates without risks". The Argus Crude Tanker Index, a composite measure of global very large crude carrier (VLCC), Suezmax and Aframax freight rates, has risen by 54.6pc since the war started — from $7.17/bl on 27 February to $11.09/bl on 8 April, which is just 2¢/bl short of its all-time-high on 26 March. "Overall, the risk-to-reward ratio for Mideast Gulf loadings still seems highly unfavorable, even with a ceasefire in place. I could lose my ship and my crew to a stray missile" a shipowner said. "Why would I want to put myself in that situation, when so many other options are available to me?" By Sean Lui Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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