Resposta à tarifa de Trump determinará fluxos de etanol

: Biofuels
25/07/31

A nova tarifa dos Estados de Unidos mirando o Brasil pouco afetará o setor de etanol, mas a eventual resposta brasileira pode determinar se o Nordeste vai realmente importar etanol norte-americano em grandes quantidades nesta safra, como se especulava.

O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, decretou tarifas adicionais de 40pc sobre produtos de origem brasileira, válidas a partir de 6 de agosto. Com isso, a taxação total sobre o etanol do Brasil vai a 52,5pc, considerando ainda a alíquota base de 2,5pc mais os 10pc anunciados em abril por Trump.

Participantes do mercado não esperam grande impacto domesticamente, já que o Brasil exporta volumes ínfimos aos EUA em relação ao que produz.

O Brasil destinou 303.960m³ de etanol para os EUA entre abril de 2024 e março de 2025 – período que compreende a safra de cana-de-açúcar –, segundo o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (Mdic). O volume representa apenas 0.8pc dos 36,7 milhões de m³ produzidos a partir de cana-de-açúcar e milho durante o período, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab).

Hoje, boa parte do volume exportado para os EUA são de contratos de longo prazo para atender à indústria norte-americana. Algumas das empresas norte-americanas envolvidas nas operações usufruem do mecanismo drawback, que nos EUA prevê o ressarcimento de impostos de importação pagos em bens que serão usados como insumos de produtos a serem exportados futuramente. Nesses casos, as tarifas de 50pc de Trump fazem pouca diferença.

Participantes de mercado esperam que os volumes contratados neste fluxo recuem levemente a partir de fevereiro de 2026, visto que os contratos até janeiro já estão fechados.

A maior parte da produção brasileira é consumida domesticamente, dada a demanda da frota de veículos flex somada ao mandato de mistura na gasolina. O consumo interno pode aumentar ainda mais com o E30, que vai aumentar a mescla do biocombustível na gasolina, passando de 27pc para 30pc a partir desta sexta-feira.

Tarifa brasileira

Agora, o setor aguarda para entender se o governo brasileiro vai alterar suas barreiras tarifárias contra o etanol norte-americano. Hoje, existe uma alíquota de 18pc sobre o etanol importado de fora do Mercosul.

No cenário de o Brasil diminuir ou zerar a taxa, a janela de arbitragem pode se abrir e ocasionar importações superiores à faixa de 400.000-800.000m³ atualmente esperada por participantes do mercado para a safra 2025-26.

A maior parte do volume iria para os portos do Nordeste, em função da proximidade geográfica e do custo de frete reduzido.

Já no caso de uma retaliação, um aumento de tarifas inviabilizaria a abertura da arbitragem, que alguns importadores acreditavam que poderia acontecer a partir de setembro.

Existe uma exceção no mercado. Há pelo menos uma empresa brasileira que utiliza do drawback no Brasil. Para essas, mudanças nas tarifas não mudam o plano de importar volumes do Golfo americano nesta safra.

Por Maria Lígia Barros

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25/12/18

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

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Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

25/12/17

Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

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EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

25/12/17

EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

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EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

25/12/16

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

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EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target

25/12/16

EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target

Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The plan would allow some ICE vehicles to remain in use beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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