Some EU, Russian wheat regions face dry conditions

Weather and crop conditions for European and Russian wheat areas to be harvested in 2023-24 have so far been without major upsets. But dry conditions in Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Baltics and southern Siberia could reduce yields in the coming months, although for now there is little cause for serious concern unless potential issues intensify.

Romania faces dry conditions in non-irrigated areas

Bulgaria and Romania have been reporting favourable conditions so far during wheat development, but concerns have arisen in the past week about insufficient moisture, particularly in non-irrigated areas in Romania.

Soil moisture levels were below the last two seasons' levels and long-term averages as of late April in Romania's wheat-producing regions in the south and southeast, according to data collected during a crop tour by Argus agricultural analytics' arm Agritel. And rainfall in recent weeks did little to alleviate concerns, in part because rainfall was localised and excessive, doing more harm than good for the country's wheat crop.

That said, irrigated areas have maintained high expectations for yields and production, according to market participants.

Baltic also face dryness risk, Germany to a lesser extent

Lithuania — the largest wheat producer in the Baltics — has had below average surface soil moisture since the second half of April, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). That said, conditions are better than further north in Latvia, where calculated soil moisture levels are closer to drought levels.

Insufficient soil moisture could mean that rainfall forecast at the end of this week may not be enough to support the crop, according to the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, if dry conditions return next week. The country faces increased forest fire risks.

Rainfall in the region has been well below historic averages during the past month, and only limited precipitation is forecast for the coming week, according to private forecaster WorldAgWeather.

As for Germany, no rain is forecast in the coming seven days, but calculated soil moisture levels are closer to normal for this time of year, according to the USDA. That said, the most affected areas are in central Germany, according to data from the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research. The driest areas align with the concentration of the country's wheat production, and with no rain forecast for at least a week, this could threaten Germany's wheat crop.

Russian spring and winter wheat — dryness, excessive rain risks

In Russia, the country's winter and spring wheat crops faced opposing fates, with the former battling excessive rainfall and the latter not receiving enough.

Spring wheat, accounting for about 28pc of Russian wheat output, according to the USDA, has had insufficient rainfall for the past two months. Nightly frosts during earlier development stages added to risks to production. That said, private forecaster WorldAgWeather projects a return to normal rainfall levels to Russian spring wheat areas in the coming two weeks, which could limit losses.

As for Russian winter wheat areas, Rostov and Krasnodar regions came under heavy rainfall in May at around 49mm above normal levels, a trend WorldAgWeather forecasts to continue in the coming two weeks. This could effectively result in a "washing out" of protein at this stage in development, in addition to complicating field operations as the harvesting period nears.

France conditions are good for now

French wheat crop conditions have remained highly rated, according to national agricultural and sea products agency FranceAgriMer, which rated 93pc of the nation's winter wheat areas as "good-to-excellent" as of 22 May, at a level which has remained mostly stable so far this season.

French wheat is likely the least at risk out of the origins discussed above, with some producers in northern France — accounting for most of the country's wheat output — already reporting above average yields. This has been in sharp contrast to a year ago, when severe dryness forced French wheat quality sharply downwards in May.

That said, wet and cool weather conditions during earlier development stages may have done some damage to the crop, but the extent of this will be difficult to determine until just before the harvest.

And continued dry conditions, particularly in central western and southwest France may have resulted in some loosening of the plants, according to market participants. Close to no rainfall is forecast for the coming week in France, according to WorldAgWeather and state meteorological agency MeteoFrance. And there could be some risks as the crop struggles to withstand continued dryness with well-below average — although above last year's — soil moisture levels, according to the USDA.

That said, unless more worrying reports emerge, French producers look to be set for a better harvest than last season.

By Anna Sneidermane