Atlantic iron ore pellet: Premiums jump for 3Q
Atlantic iron ore pellet premium settlements for the third quarter this year have risen sharply, despite a still bearish climate for steelmakers globally. Market participants had been anticipating an increase, but some were surprised by the extent of the rise.
Brazilian iron ore mining firm Vale "concluded its pellet premium definition process" for the third quarter of 2023 at a $60/dry metric tonne (dmt) premium to a 65pc Fe index, up by $15/t dmt from the second quarter for direct reduction (DR) pellets. The premium for blast furnace (BF) pellets was indicated by the producer at $52/dmt, up by $11/dmt on the quarter.
Wider output cuts are anticipated among European and north Asian mills in the face of low demand and falling prices, but weakness in seaborne iron ore fines indexes and consistently strong demand for DR pellets in the Middle East have been cited by market participants as the likely reasons for the sizeable increase in pellet premiums. The Argus ICX 62pc Fe fines index averaged $104.37/dmt cfr Qingdao in May, down from $125.75/dmt in February, when second-quarter premiums were settled. The Argus 65pc Fe fines index averaged $118.22/dmt cfr Qingdao in May, down from February's average of $140.24/dmt.
Demand has been stable in the EU pellet market, another Atlantic basin producer said. "Despite idling BF capacity in the EU, we see the lower demand is offset by less supply owing to suppliers' under-performance and reduced supply from the CIS. Hence we consider the seaborne pellets market still to remain rather tight," the producer said.
Vale's latest pellet premiums are not likely to be widely accepted in China, where 65pc Fe Iranian iron ore pellet is available at a $10/dmt premium to the 65 Fe index, Chinese traders said. Iranian exporters are looking to increase exports to China in the coming months as domestic steel production is expected to fall as a result of limitations on electricity supplies.
The differential between DR and BF pellet premiums has returned to what market participants consider a more conventional $8/dmt in the third quarter, widening from $4/dmt in the second quarter. Demand for DR pellets in the Middle East was constrained earlier this year by gas supply shortages, which have since eased. Natural gas prices that climbed to record-highs last summer have also fallen sharply, with the front-month Dutch TTF gas price at €26/MWh today, down from more than €300/MWh in late August.
The true steel demand picture will be the ultimate driver of market acceptance of the higher pellet premiums for the third quarter, one North American producer said. "We might see a divergence with steel industries in various parts of the world moving at different paces," he added. Other market participants are also unsure if buyers are prepared for the jump in premiums. "We've had several complaints from customers in Europe," one trader in the region said.
A number of blast furnaces across Europe have been scheduled to come back on line in the second and third quarters, but the weak market has prompted some steelmakers to consider further closures or reductions in utilisation rates. Chinese crude steel output in January-April rose by 4.1pc on the year to 354.4mn t, but April production was 1.5pc lower than a year earlier at 92.6mn t. Crude steel output is expected to have fallen in May, with output by China Iron and Steel Association member mills of 2.246mn t/d for 11-20 May down by 0.2pc from 1-10 May owing to weaker demand and falling steel prices.
Related news posts
Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
Baltimore to temporarily open 4th shipping channel
Cheyenne, 24 April (Argus) — The Port of Baltimore is preparing to open another, deeper temporary shipping channel this week so at least some of the vessels that have been stranded at the port can depart. The new 35-ft deep Fort McHenry Limited Access Channel is scheduled to be open to commercially essential vessels from 25 April until 6am ET on 29 April or 30 April "if weather adversely impacts vessel transits," according to a US Coast Guard Marine Safety Information Bulletin. The channel will then be closed again until 10 May. The channel also will have a 300-ft horizontal clearance and 214-ft vertical clearance. This will be the fourth and largest channel opened since the 26 March collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The Unified Command has said that the new limited access channel should allow passage of about 75pc of the types of vessels that typically move through the waterway. Vessels that have greater than 60,000 long tons (60,963 metric tonnes) of displacement will likely not be able to move through the channel and those between 50,000-60,000 long tons of displacement "will be closely evaluated" for transit. There were seven vessels blocked from exiting the port as of 27 March, including three dry bulk carriers, one vehicle carrier and one tanker, according to the US Department of Transportation. Two of the bulk carriers at berth in Baltimore are Kamsarmax-sized coal vessels, data from analytics firm Kpler show. The US Army Corps of Engineers still expects to reopen the Port of Baltimore's permanent 700-foot wide, 50-foot deep channel by the end of May. The Key Bridge collapsed into the water late last month when the 116,851dwt container ship Dali lost power and crashed into a bridge support column. Salvage teams have been working to remove debris from the water and containers from the ship in order to clear the main channel. By Courtney Schlisserman Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Critical battery metal supply meets today's demand: IEA
Critical battery metal supply meets today's demand: IEA
Singapore, 24 April (Argus) — Supply of critical battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can "comfortably" meet current demand after major mining and refining investment over the past five years, according to IEA's latest Global EV Outlook 2024 . Global supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt in 2023 exceeded demand by 10pc, 8pc and 6.5pc, respectively, said IEA. Lithium demand for battery rose by 30pc on the year to around 140,000t, that of cobalt increased by 15pc to 150,000t, and nickel rose by 30pc to 370,000t. Continued rapid growth in mining and refining is needed to meet future demand and avoid supply chain bottlenecks, but battery technology advancements can potentially mitigate the demand, IEA said. IEA noted overcapacity has brought critical minerals prices and battery costs down but is also squeezing mining firms' cash flows and margins, with many companies struggling to stay afloat. Australia's nickel industry has been hit hard this year, with multiple producers ceasing operations following a sharp nickel market downturn, having to compete with rising nickel supply from Indonesia. Western Australia had to resort to providing royalty rebates to struggling nickel producers. Low lithium prices are threatening the survival of greenfield lithium project developers , and also affecting some established participants. Major Chinese lithium producer Tianqi Lithium on 23 April issued a profit warning to its shareholders, citing a significant fall in lithium product sales price. Tianqi warned of a net loss of 3.6bn-4.3bn yuan ($497-593mn) in January-March, drastically below a net profit of 4.88bn yuan for the same period a year earlier. Global lithium firm Arcadium Lithium earlier this year warned that current market prices will weigh on future supply . Cobalt prices in China are also under pressure, with market participants forecasting the downtrend to continue at least until the end of this year. "Everyone's mentally prepared that this year's a tough year, even 2025 [can be tough]," said a lithium market participant, noting the adverse effects from this year's global economic downturn. Battery EV battery demand rose by 40pc on the year to 750GWh in 2023, but at a lower rate as EV demand growth also slows down . Among major markets, US and Europe grew the fastest by 40pc on the year, while China — the largest market — grew by 35pc. Battery demand in the rest of the world grew by 70pc, but was still lower than 100GWh. China's battery demand reached 415GWh in 2023, while Europe and US trailed behind at 185GWh and 100GWh, respectively. Battery output in Europe and US were 110GWh and 70GWh, respectively. Lithium-ion battery output in China was 940GWh in 2023 , according to data from the country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). China is leading the way, but it comes at the cost of "high levels of overcapacity", IEA noted. China used less than 40pc of its maximum cell output, with its installed manufacturing capacity of cathode active material and anode active material at almost four and nine times greater than global EV cell demand in 2023. Homegrown current and additional EV battery manufacturing capacity in Europe and US are scarce. South Korean firms account for over 350GWh of manufacturing capacity outside of South Korea, with around 75pc of existing manufacturing capacity in Europe owned by South Korean firms. Japanese and Chinese firms have 57GWh and 30GWh of capacity, respectively, outside of their own countries. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China's Hunan Yuneng to build Spain battery LFP plant
China's Hunan Yuneng to build Spain battery LFP plant
Beijing, 24 April (Argus) — Chinese battery cathode producers have continued to expand investment in the overseas market, with the country's largest lithium iron phosphate (LFP) producer Hunan Yuneng planning to build a plant in Spain. Yuneng plans to invest 982mn yuan ($135.5mn) to build a 50,000 t/yr LFP production plant in Spain's Extremadura region. The firm aims to complete the site construction in 15 months after obtaining approval from the authorities. It will establish a subsidiary Yuneng International (Spain) New Energy Battery Material to develop this project. It did not disclose more details such as the launch dates. "This project is to strengthen the company's position in the global market and meet demand from overseas consumers, on the back of growing demand for LFP cathodes in the overseas market driven by the development of new energy vehicles outside China, especially in Europe," Yuneng said. Yuneng produced 504,400t of LFP cathodes in 2023, up by 50pc from a year earlier, with sales also rising by 56pc to 506,800t over the same period. It has achieved a nameplate capacity of 700,000 t/yr for LFP as of the end of 2023. It is also expanding capacity for another emerging battery cathode material, lithium manganese iron phosphate, which has higher energy density and allows for a longer driving range in electric vehicles (EVs), better performance in winter temperatures, and has lower manufacturing costs compared with LFP. Overseas expansions A growing number of Chinese battery cathode firms have accelerated their investment in overseas production projects, such as in France, Morocco and South Korea , to diversify resource origins and meet market entry conditions to the US required by the Inflation Reduction Act, and to cope with restrictions on key battery materials in the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act. Argus forecasts total demand for EV battery cathode material will reach 7.7mn t by 2034, from only 1mn t in 2022, with LFP expected to continue to take up the bigger share compared with ternary battery cathodes. Argus -assessed costs for cathode active material LFP were $13.95/kwh on 23 April, up from $12.31/kwh at the start of this year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Inversión en autos eléctricos en México crecerá
Inversión en autos eléctricos en México crecerá
Mexico City, 23 April (Argus) — Las inversiones en México en ensamblaje de vehículos eléctricos (EV) y cadenas de suministro alcanzaron un máximo histórico en 2023 y se espera que crezcan en 2024, a pesar de una reciente desaceleración de la demanda global de EV y las próximas elecciones presidenciales. Se realizaron 96 inversiones en México durante 2023 en vehículos eléctricos y gastos relacionados con la electromovilidad, que alcanzaron los $5,600 millones, según el último informe de electromovilidad de la empresa mexicana de investigación Directorio Automotriz (DA). La empresa espera que esto se expanda en 11pc a $6,200 millones en 2024. Las expectativas de crecimiento global se han moderado para los vehículos eléctricos, pero DA señaló que la trayectoria sigue siendo positiva con proyecciones para las ventas globales de EV en 13.3 millones de unidades vendidas este año frente a los 9.6 millones vendidos en 2023. El año comenzó con varios anuncios de inversión. En febrero, Volkswagen dijo que invertirá $942 millones en su centro de electromovilidad de Puebla para agregar producción de EV. Magna, una empresa de piezas estructurales de EV, invertirá $166 millones para suministrar el complejo de General Motors en Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila. Seojin Mobility de Corea planea una inversión de hasta $260 millones para una planta de montaje de motores eléctricos en Escobedo, cerca de Monterrey, Nuevo León, con planes de completarla en febrero de 2025. Hay más anuncios de inversiones relacionadas con los vehículos eléctricos en el horizonte a finales de este año para empresas chinas como BYD, el principal competidor global de Tesla, así como Chirey Motors y SAIC, afirmó DA. El factor político El momento político en el país es importante, con elecciones presidenciales el 2 de junio y leyes electorales que limitan la participación de funcionarios gubernamentales en cualquier anuncio de inversión importante o evento relacionado desde el 1 de marzo. La perspectiva de la fabricación de automóviles chinos en suelo mexicano también está provocando nerviosismo entre los grupos comerciales estadounidenses que afirman que las empresas chinas están utilizando México como centro de representación para evitar aranceles. Aunque EE. UU. tiene un arancel de 27.5pc sobre los vehículos eléctricos chinos, incluso si se fabrican en suelo mexicano, las importaciones desde México de EV construidos con piezas chinas solo pagan un arancel de 2.5pc. "Pekín ya está utilizando a México como puerta trasera para eludir los aranceles de las importaciones a EE. UU. y está siguiendo el mismo plan de juego que casi destruyó las industrias del acero y solar de EE. UU.", dijo la Alianza para la Fabricación Estadounidense (AAM, por sus siglas en ingles) en un informe a finales de febrero. La presión sobre el gobierno de EE. UU. para tomar medidas está aumentando, con la presidencia y muchos asientos del congreso en juego en las elecciones de noviembre. A finales de 2023, en México había 262 empresas registradas relacionadas con el ensamblaje, la producción y la venta de vehículos eléctricos, según DA. Esta cifra se expandió en 19.6pc solo en los últimos cuatro meses, de acuerdo con la misma información. México podría producir 214,040 vehículos eléctricos en 2024, un aumento de 96pc comparado con 2023, luego de un crecimiento de 38pc el año pasado en 2022, estima DA. El principal anuncio hasta la fecha relacionado con los vehículos eléctricos en México sigue siendo el que hizo Tesla el 1 de marzo. La Gigafactoría México podría atraer hasta $15 mil millones, incluyendo inversiones adicionales. Pero el progreso en la Gigafactoría ha sido lento, luego de que Tesla no participó en una ceremonia en febrero, organizada por el gobernador del estado. Grupos ecologistas también se han quejado de su posible impacto en el suministro de agua en la región propensa a la sequía. Aunque la inversión en vehículos eléctricos está ganando terreno debido a factores como el nearshoring (relocalización de las cadenas de suministro más cerca de los mercados finales), no se garantiza un crecimiento continuo. La agencia de calificación Moody's ha mencionado recientemente una desaceleración global en inversiones como en las calificaciones de Nemak de México, líder en la fabricación de carcasas y soportes de aluminio para baterías de litio utilizadas en vehículos eléctricos. Mientras tanto, las ventas nacionales de vehículos eléctricos e híbridos en México continúan expandiéndose, subiendo en 75pc año tras año hasta 7,442 en enero, representando 6.6pc de todas las ventas nacionales de automóviles en el mes, según los datos de la agencia de estadísticas Inegi. Por James Young Planes recientes de inversión en EV y electromovilidad en México Anunciado Compañía Proyecto Inversión Ubicación Feb 23 Stellantis Producción de la van de carga EV RAM ProMaster 200 Saltillo, Coahuila Marzo 23 Tesla and OEM suppliers Tesla Gigafactoría e inversiones asociadas 15,000 Santa Catarina, Nuevo Leon Marzo 23 Jetour Planta de ensamblaje de vehículos híbridos y de combustión interna 3,000 Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila Feb 24 Volkswagen Centro estratégico para EV 942 Puebla Marzo 24 Magna Agregar dos divisiones para partes de EV 166 El bajío Marzo 24 BMW Construir planta de ensamblaje de baterías para EV 849 San Luis Potosí Marzo 24 Seojin Mobility Construir planta de motores para EV 260 Sonora Abril 24* ZF Group Centro de I+D en electromovilidad 200 Monterrey, Nuevo León — Anuncios de la compañías *Abierto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more