ARGUS Urea Analytics
Understand more. Connect more
Our new, revamped Argus Urea Analytics service connects you with quarterly analysis alongside an annual report, an innovative and interactive data visualisation tool (click here to view demo) and the underlying data in excel, giving you the essential medium-to-long term outlook and analysis for the global urea market.
Bringing together unique benefits and features in a compelling new format:
- Quarterly reports
Narrative and graphical analysis of what’s driving the urea market and how it is likely to evolve, ensuring you will be more confident in making critical decisions. Includes key insight on supply, demand, costs, trade and projects, with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices.
- Annual long-term report
Understand the connections between underlying market drivers and use these insights to develop more robust strategies. Includes 25-year price forecast based on Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) analysis.
- Cost curves
Updated quarterly for processing plants, and annually for mines.
- Interactive online cost curve service
Use our unique tool to analyse and interrogate cost curve data.
- Analytics Dashboard: Data visualisation tool
We’re taking our analysis even further with an interactive dashboard enabling you to visualise and analyse the dynamics that shape markets. Includes capacity, production, consumption, trade and price data.
- Underlying excel datasets
Explore and integrate data into your models, saving time for more in-depth analysis. Includes historical data (15 years).
Our key methodologies include:
A demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts providing a view of future fertilizer consumption, and our LRMC multi-factor model that assesses the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle.
- Short-term forecasts by month and quarter linked to energy and raw material prices, crop prices, currency exchange rate fluctuations and the merchant supply-demand balance
- Short-Run Marginal Cost forecast and supply-demand balance, with project gateway assessment for the current investment cycle (5-7 years ahead)
- Our longer-term forecast is based on LRMC analysis, which is updated annually, taking you beyond the current investment cycle
- Our medium and long-term forecasts are connected using a mean-reversion model