Argus Critical Minerals Coverage 

Price assessment details

Key Global Market Drivers

• Supply-demand fluctuations: The core underlying fundamentals of supply and demand remain a major factor shaping market direction across the critical minerals sector. Regional variations and fluctuating economic conditions require continual monitoring and a truly global approach to coverage that can capture nuances across different geographies.
• Energy transition: The global transition toward green energy and the electrification of the transport industry will remain a strong demand driver for critical minerals over the next 20-plus years. From batteries to magnets, wind turbines to solar panels – the infrastructure of this transition depends on a huge variety of critical minerals that will be needed at a scale never before seen by the energy industry.
• Export controls and tariffs: China’s export controls have been a major factor in price and supply risk since 2023, particularly for gallium, germanium, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, antimony, hafnium and rare earths. These controls have led to critically-tight supply outside China, driving up prices and limiting restocking options for many buyers. Meanwhile, shifting tariffs structures have sent shockwaves through the copper and aluminium markets, prompting market participants to reevaluate trade flows and arbitrage opportunities.
• Rising defence demand:Rising defence spending globally is driving up demand for a wide range of critical metals including gallium, germanium, rhenium, hafnium, and tantalum. This is further tightening supply in some markets with inelastic supply chains, especially when coupled with export restrictions.

Supply chain vulnerabilities

• Concentration of production and processing: A major vulnerability is the high concentration of mining and processing capacity for critical materials in just a few countries, particularly China. China controls approximately 90pc of global rare earths processing and over 98pc of heavy rare earths supply in particular. Similarly, the top three producing countries account for almost 90pc of lithium supply, 80pc for cobalt, and 65pc for nickel. These concentrations of supply create strategic vulnerabilities for other nations.
• Lack of investment and financing: Low profit margins in the smelting and refining sectors often discourage private-sector investment in midstream operations, posing a threat to the value chain. Meanwhile, junior mining firms and midstream project developers often struggle to find suitable government funding mechanisms, and private investors can be deterred by the price risk inherent to many critical mineral markets where price volatility and sharp swings are not uncommon.
• Permitting and regulatory delays: Lengthy and unpredictable permitting processes for mining projects outside China, which often taking 5-10 years or in some cases 10-20 years, deter private capital investment. Some western governments are taking steps to shorten permitting processes, but they remain a major hurdle for many companies.

Around the world – in the EU, America, India, Japan, South Korea and beyond – countries are implementing a range of strategies to diversify their critical mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on single-source imports. These strategies encompass legislative frameworks, financial incentives, domestic capacity building, international partnerships, and efforts to address market distortions.

Critical minerals policy and legislative framework

Both the US and the EU have introduced significant legislation to address critical mineral supply chain vulnerabilities. These include:

US

• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Builds supply chains outside China, promotes price transparency and restricts electric vehicle (EV) tax credits tied to foreign entities of concern.
• Defence production act: Used to fund projects, establish price floors and acquire stakes in foreign mineral companies.
• Investment: Over $20bn deployed since 2020; The US Department of War (DoD) awarded $439mn to strengthen rare earth supply chains from refining to magnet production.

European Union

•  The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRM Act) Effective May 2024, identifies 34 critical and 17 strategic materials, with 2030 targets for domestic production, processing, and recycling.
• Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA): Counters subsidies from China and the US in green technology.
• RESourceEU Plan: Co-ordinates joint purchasing, stockpiling and alternative sourcing.
• Investment: €22.5bn allocated to 47 strategic projects; wind energy roadmap calls for raw materials funds and financing tools.

Joint Initiatives

• US–Australia Partnership: Co‑investment of at least $1bn each in critical minerals projects, supporting an $8.5bn pipeline.
• US EXIM Bank: Considering up to $2.2bn in co‑funding for Australian developers.

Domestic production and processing capacity

Efforts are under way to build and expand mining, refining, and manufacturing capabilities outside China. These include:

• United States: Projects are developing in Northeast Wyoming, Indiana, Florida, and Texas, with facilities in Utah and Massachusetts already ramping up volumes. MP Materials, the only operating rare earths miner and refiner in the US, has built the first integrated magnet facility in the US in a generation.
• European Union: The EU's CRMA aims to expand midstream and downstream processing capacity to lessen reliance on single-source imports. Projects include the expansion of neodymium (Nd) and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) processing capacity at UK-based Less Common Metals, NdPr production at Solvay in France by 2025, and Carestar's plan to start rare earth oxide production in France by 2026. REEtec in Norway plans to start a commercial NdPr plant in 2025, and Swedish state-owned LKAB plans a rare earth oxide demonstration plant by the end of 2026.
• Canada: Ucore Rare Metals received a payment from the US DoD for rare earth element separation work and is developing its Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex. The government-backed Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) started producing NdPr metal in 2025.

International partnerships and alliances

Collaborative efforts with allies and producer countries are central to diversification:

International partnerships and alliances

• Multilateral: G7 strategy to diversify supply chains; Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) with 14 countries + EU, supporting 30+ global projects.
• Bilateral: US–Japan collaboration on rare earths; US agreements with Australia, Thailand, Malaysia. EU selected 13 strategic projects abroad and is pursuing joint purchasing and alliances.

Supply Chain Management and Market Practices

Regions are focusing on securing supply and influencing market dynamics:

• Offtake agreements and stockpiling: US secured long‑term rare earth deals with Greenland and Canada; EU considering similar agreements.
• Recycling: US, Japan and Europe investing in recycling technologies; EU wind industry roadmap highlights recycled permanent magnets as resilient sources.

The entire landscape of the critical metals market is evolving rapidly, and Argus is following it daily, updating our clients on every development. As an independent Price Reporting Agency (PRA), Argus plays a vital role in supporting price transparency by publishing unbiased benchmarks across energy and commodity markets including most metals classified as critical materials by several government entities. Argus price assessments are trusted globally for contracts, risk management, and investment decisions, ensuring market participants have reliable reference points free from distortion, supported by analysis and news on developments which may impact metal prices and availability.