Ellie: Hello, and welcome to the latest "Metal Movers" podcast from Argus Media. I'm Ellie Saklatvala, editorial lead for metals. And I'm joined today by Cristina Belda and Maeve Flaherty from our London metals team for a discussion about Central Asia's position in the critical minerals industry, both its current production and the potential to develop more of its mineral wealth in the coming years. So to kick us off, Cristina, maybe I can come to you. Why are we discussing Central Asia?
Cristina: Thank you, Ellie. We are discussing Central Asia because it holds substantial reserves across a range of minerals. For instance, it accounts nearly 40% of global manganese ore reserves, 30% of chromium. It also has important deposits of tin, titanium, aluminum, copper, lithium, antimony, just to name a few. As you know, these resources are key for industries ranging from technology to renewable energy.
So we are seeing increasing geopolitical competition among various countries in this research-rich region that includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. And some experts even refer to this area as the emerging frontier in the global contest for critical minerals.
In fact, the European Union has been shifting focus towards these five post-Soviet states. There was a summit in April in which Europe said that Central Asia is their partner of choice. At the same time, the USA is hungry for its minerals, and Central Asia is enjoying the momentum. It's open to foreign investment and collaboration to develop their mining sector and to capitalize in their resources, especially rare earths, as we will talk also later, or antimony and chromium, and so on.
Ellie: Now, obviously, Central Asia is already an active producer of some minerals and quite an influential player in those markets. Chromium is one of the big ones that comes to mind for Kazakhstan. Maeve, could you give us an update on how Kazakhstan's chromium industry is evolving and its position in the international market?
Maeve: Absolutely. So Kazakhstan is a major chromium producer. It has a really large impact on sort of end markets in ferrochrome, in chrome metal. And when you're looking at ferrochrome, for example, Kazchrome, which is a subsidiary of Eurasian Resources Group, a 40% government-owned company, is a really major producer of ferrochrome and has a really outsized impact on ferrochrome markets, particularly in Europe. And so in Europe right now, Kazakhstan, which has the lowest cost of production, is really the cheapest provider of material to Europe and is able to drive price levels. Ferrochrome prices have been quite low, over the past year, as a result of limited demand from the struggling European steel industry. Kazakh sellers have been offering material at the lower end of the market, at levels that competitors really can’t compete with.
And so German long-term contracts, which historically had a large Turkish presence, the Turks are largely out of that market, and it is primarily being filled and supplied by Kazakh material. And it really shows a sort of investment by the Kazakh metal industry in these foreign markets. Many say that Kazakhstan is not necessarily making a major profit on these ferrochrome sales right now, but is willing to sell at lower levels to push other countries sort of out of these markets.
And you see that value in Kazakhstan in terms of the demand for these companies. In April, there was a really big media rumor that James Cameron, a U.S. businessman, was seeking to purchase 100% of Eurasian Resources Group, this partially government-owned company, so much so that ERG came out and said, "There is no sales talk. We have no intention of selling. We are committed to developing as the company already had." And then a week later, they announced that they were going to build an 80-megawatt ferroalloy gas utilization plant.
And some people attribute Cameron's interest in purchasing ERG and American interest in these resources as focused on rare earth development and the idea that ERG has these existing chromium ore reserves, but also these opportunities in rare earths and other critical minerals that make these companies very valuable.
Ellie: Brilliant. And then, if we dive a bit further into some of the other critical minerals on the table, Cristina, antimony is already a very relevant product for Central Asia. They're already producing. And as I understand it, there is future potential for even more antimony to come out of that region. Could you give us an update on what's currently going on in the region with regard to antimony and what could come in the future?
Cristina: Yes. So antimony, it's a hot topic in the industry. And perhaps the case of Tajikistan illustrates the situation because there is a global shortage of antimony and the world need it for solar, for the defense sector. And China has imposed export controls. It's not exporting material to the U.S. or to Europe.
Then Tajikistan has become one of the most reliable suppliers of antimony for the Western world. The country, to give you an example, I think last year exported more than 40% of... It covers the need of European Union. And the country ranks third in the global reserves. And its biggest mine, the Anzob Mining Complex, is operated by a U.S.-based company, Comsup Commodities. So we see here already a collaboration between the two countries. And at a moment in which other countries are more unstable, like Myanmar, Russia, of course, Tajikistan offers some security. And then also, for instance, other countries are also emerging. Kyrgyzstan holds 13% of global antimony reserves, which presents another promising source.
Ellie: And yes, when we think about those deposits that are not yet developed for antimony, but then also for various other minerals as well, what are the main challenges? What are the main hurdles to getting them out of the ground? I mean, does the infrastructure exist? Do we have the transportation routes, the power supply? What needs to happen in order to move these things forward?
Cristina: Yes. So one of the issues in these countries is that information, geological information, can be hard to access. Some of the mapping of mineral reserves were done many years ago using outdated methods, and they need to be studied afresh in detail again. So data compilation and geological framework are urgently needed to attract investment.
Another issue that investors are finding is that some of these countries rely on aging infrastructure with poor environmental track records, because many of the mining infrastructures of countries like Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan have not been upgraded or maintained properly. In the case of Kazakhstan, it has managed to upgrade some of its infrastructure.
Ellie: And so, Cristina, could you elaborate a bit further on the transportation routes? I mean, how are we moving material around across this region, getting it to ports? What's the state of play on that front?
Cristina: Yes, well, this is a landlocked region, as we know, so it's hard for the material to arrive in Europe. The European Union is now developing the Middle Corridor rail and port network, which runs from Western China through Kazakhstan to the Caspian Sea and onward to Europe. This has been expanded last year with financing from the European Union, and this route already transport uranium concentrate for Canada and France. So some people say that, for instance, rare earths or other minerals could follow the same route with minimal modification, but it's yet to be seen.
Ellie: There's probably huge potential for some of these deposits, but it sounds like there's a very long way to go in terms of investment and infrastructure development in order to actually realize all of that potential. I'd like to drill a bit further into the geopolitical angles, which we've already alluded to a bit so far. We're obviously in a world of rising tensions.
Maeve, if we circle back to chrome, we have already seen in the past few years the chrome market caught in some of those crosshairs with regard to Russia. Could you fill us in on how Kazakh trade flows have evolved? Have they undergone any shifts as a result of this?
Maeve: Absolutely. So historically, Kazakhstan has been the primary supplier of chrome ore to a variety of chrome metal producers in Russia, and these include Klyuchevsky, Novotroitsk. And on 24th February of 2025, the EU adopted the 16th sanctions package against Russia, and that, among the targets, was chromium ores and compounds, mainly because of the defense applications of chrome metal. So for artillery purposes, you know, use chrome metal on the inside of the barrel, and they're very essential for repairs, for maintaining longevity. So it's a really key metal for the military in Russia.
And Novotroitsk essentially had to shut down immediately after that decision because Kazakh producers stopped providing chrome ore to Novotroitsk and to these chrome metal producers. And, you know, they came out and said that, that they were looking for alternative sources, and they continued to do so. But it had a major impact on both the internal supply of chrome metal and also on chrome metal markets globally.
And in Europe, for example, the lower end of the price range rose from $8,400 to $10,300 since the beginning of the year, largely because of the exit of Russian chrome metal from the market. You know, without chrome metal in Europe from Russia, the market's been very dependent on Chinese material, and prices have risen sharply. So you sort of see that dependence on Central Asian material that's having a major impact on the defense industry in Russia, and how these sanctions are really shifting trade flows.
Ellie: Very interesting. And Cristina, sticking with the geopolitical angle, are there any other nuances and ways that you see the Central Asian region playing a part or filling gaps, or playing a role in this geopolitical climate?
Cristina: Yes, Ellie. So when we talk about geopolitics now, I think we have to talk about critical minerals and rare earths, the way before we used to talk about oil and gas or energy. So all these countries in Central Asia, they want to develop their rare earth sectors. They made some discoveries in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and they are going to capitalize it with other countries.
For instance, India last week joined an exploration initiative to diversify supply chains. So this is, let's say, a new development and a new ally. But China is the largest investor and importer of critical minerals in the region. Let's not forget that Chinese firms dominate and hold the majority of mining license in Tajikistan, in Kyrgyzstan. And also, the geographical proximity. They share borders with this country, so China has easier access and lower transportation costs. And also, the financial resources, because they've been investing in the region for a long time. So I would say China is the biggest ally, and you have to have that in mind if you are going to invest long-term in the region.
What about Russia? Well, Russia is another major player in Central Asia. It's a sphere of influence. But it's true that the total share of critical mineral exports from Central Asia to Russia have been declining since 2010. But, of course, it has interest in the region.
So we're going to see increasing competition. The strategic significance in the global supply chain for critical minerals, it's going to increase. And Central Asian countries have the opportunity to leverage their resources for economic growth, to attract foreign investment, and to enhance their global standing.
Ellie: Thank you very much, Cristina, and Maeve, as well, for your insights today. We are fresh out of time. So that concludes today's podcast. If you'd like more information on our prices and all our news and analysis coverage, please visit www.argusmedia.com. Thank you very much.
