Intro: Will does day-to-day etc, launching forecast product early next year. Joined by Anna from consulting for discussion about recycled polymers
Hello, and welcome to this Argus Chemicals podcast – What to look out for in 2026 in recycled polymers. My name is Will Collins, and I am the global editor for Argus’ Recycled Polymers service. I cover the day-to-day markets and try to get a good idea of what is going on now. Obviously it’s well-known that the industry is going through a very difficult time, particularly in the past year, and we see that as well in our reporting. But what we really want to discuss is what come next, and for that I have enlisted some help in the form of Anna Fittock from the Argus Consulting team. Anna has been looking closely at the recycled polymers market recently, as she is leading our plans to launch the Argus Recycled Polymers Outlook service, a monthly forecast report, in the new year, and our plan here is to highlight some of the factors that we will be looking at when putting the forecast together. Anna I will let you introduce our plans in more detail.
Anna – Thanks Will. The Argus Recycled Polymer Outlook service will deliver an updated rolling 24-month forecast each month for recycled PET and recycled polyolefin prices spanning North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, alongside a chemical recycling capacity forecast and legislation key updates. This will be delivered as an excel data and download file, including 12-months price history, plus a concise slide deck pdf with charts and commentary by region to explain the forecasts and what has driven them. The service will also include access to the Recycled Polymer Outlook workspace on the Argus Direct Platform, where subscribers can see all of this content and more.
Expectations on virgin polymer prices
What will they be doing and how this impacts the recycled markets. Cost-saving vs sustainability applications.
In virgin PET – prices have fallen this year – we have already had 1/7 producers in Europe close down in Q4, and further rationalisation is expected next year
Market balance is expected to tighten because of less European production & we will also find out about potential ADDs on Vietnamese supply in 28 December
rPET flake is definitely being supported by the SUP Directive, for people making bottles
There are still some voluntary commitments for ither packaging that people are sticking to
But very limited demand for non-packaging markets (strapping/fibres) – and likely to remain limited until the price gap closes
Anna: what will happen in the future for PET and rPET:
there is a feeling that virgin PET resin prices are reaching a bit of a bottom in Europe and will begin to climb in the new year.
the premium of rPET colourless flake to spot PET resin has already returned to historical norms of below 300€/t and is also moving back towards the below 600 €/t levels seen until April of this year.
Polyolefin prices have also fallen in recent months.
Brought down rHDPE natural and white by about 50-100€/t this week – even in the premium markets the differentials were getting too big – there seems to be more aggressive price offers in this market recently – particularly in southern Europe – which could mean that the price gap over virgin also normalises again.
Also affecting cost-saving markets demand for rPP/rLDPE etc.
But there is a feeling in the market that the recent downward trend may have reached a bottom – at least in the short term, right Anna?
Yes we are seeing this, for example the HDPE BM contract price for northwest Europe is expected to see fairly steady increases for the first 2Q, with the discount for rHDPE pipe dark/black grades increasing to the low 500s€/t, which should support demand into cost-saving applications. The virgin price has less weight on the forecast for sustainability application grades such as rHDPE natural, but as Will alluded there still looks to be a limit to the premium to virgin that the market participants accept on these grades, which is expected to average in the low 700s€/t in the year ahead.
Seasonality in bale prices – US PET, NWE PP bale market
Explaining how we’ve used it in our forecasting – frame the discussion as this is what we see and this is how we factor it into forecast going forward
Certain bale markets show quite strong seasonality for different reasons. PET always has seasonal variations in US/Europe because people buy more beverage bottles in the summer, which then get collected/recycled in the autumn. So you see stronger demand in spring summer (higher prices) and stronger supply/weaker demand in autumn and to some extent winter.
US PET seasonality has been increased recently because of Latin American demand for US PET waste – Latin America has a strong recycling industry (relatively low costs) but insufficient local waste collection for peak demand seasons
PP bale prices in Europe are also seasonal – there are links with the peak plant pot production season in 1H the year, and sorting centre recycling quotas in 2H year.
PET and PP seasonality levels out to some extent when demand is below-expectations/inventories are higher – as was the case this year for PET in particular
Flexible PE waste bale seasonality has links to seasonal demand trends, but also particularly to exports, which become much more challenging overall Nov-Jan when importers in Turkey/SEA need to sort out their import licences again for the new year
This is not factored into our forecast really for next year because….
Anna: We factor seasonality as a main driver of our bale price forecast based on the trends already identified but also look at this from a margin perspective. Want to
WSR impact (flexible Polyolefins)
Europe will ban plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries from Nov next year. This will mainly affect PE film waste (and PP film waste, although this is a less important market)
We had a bit of a practice for this already in November…. Impact
Next year the impact may even be stronger – to some extent there will be a floor to prices this year based on people deciding to hold/build stock expecting prices to rebound in Q1 next year. That will not be the case when the ban comes in…
Anna on how we have factored it in
Feeling from Asian guys about how it’s impacting the market in Asia
Saw NWE 98/2 flexible PE bale prices drop by 17pc from Oct-Nov with this increase in material in Europe. The impact of the Indonesian ban may have been mediated by some re-direction of exports to other non-OECD countries. Expecting a larger drop in May 2026 as a higher volume of material will be stuck in the European market or will need to placed competitively in OECD export markets.
Likely to see a little bubble in Jan to May 2026 as flexible PE waste exports are supported by stock-filling in non-OECD countries ahead of the ban.
Prices in Asian markets will also respond although we are yet to see price rises for PE bales in Indonesia as exports are still arriving. This will be a good indication of where
Anna - Exports to Indonesia stopped in October 2025. Didn’t get new import licences so there was a break in service of exports from about first week of November until 2026. Anything shipped after first week of Nov might not have arrived before the end of the year but impact started to be seen in European market. Factor in a little bubble in Jan to May 2026 in Europe as non-oecd countries buy up material ahead of the deadline. Then expect European prices to drop. Prices in Asian markets will also respond although we are yet to see this in Indonesia as exports are still arriving. A lot of the
Between May and Nov 26 can dop some exports with notification but process unclear and likely to be cost burden. From Nov 2026 there is the full ban of 2.5 years until non-OECD countries can re-apply for exemption. Based on prior experiences, considering these applications for exemption may take upwards of 12 months meaning exports may not resume until 2030.
Anna - Potential trends in PET market on demand
not just the WSR impacting the market. Defining HS codes for rPET is in discussion with aim for implementation in Q1.
This would support more accurate tracking of imports to Europe and support European recyclers case that they are proving damaging to European industry.
This type of regulation is something that we constantly keep on top of – particularly when anything is confirmed, and if ADD cases are accepted, we can look at previous examples of import suspensions in the market to analyse the price impact on the destination market and consider amending our forecast in this way.
Chemical recycling
One of the key things in chem recycling market is the development in capacity globally. Companies faced challenges in getting projects off the ground. We will be examining this in the outlook based on project announcements and our view of how projects are progressing so we can provide a forward view of chemical recycling capacity within the 2-year outlook frame.
In longer term, our consulting projects team have done a number of bespoke projects where they have analysed how recycled content mandates coupled with the mass balance approach impact the pyrolysis price.
Though the increase in demand could cause the price to rise, the scaling up issues already mentioned could put meeting the targets at risk altogether, leading to pushback and more uncertainty in demand.
As legislation continues to evolve, the view is also subject to change – for example the recent EU Bioeconomy Strategy signals support to the recognition of bio-based plastics for meeting PPWR quotas, potentially reducing the chemically recycled plastic required in the market.
I think it’s key to keep in mind that we are not in the business of predicting what legislation will be passed and when, but need to form a view based on the most up to date state of play.
Awesome, thanks very much Anna. I’d say you’ve got a tough job on your hands trying to keep up with all the different things that can affect the market. And I would encourage our listeners to register your interest in the new Argus Recycled Polymers Outlook launching in January, and be the first to hear when it goes live by clicking the link on the Argus webpage for this podcast. And you can reach both of us with any questions using the email recycledpolymers@argusmedia.com
