Viewpoint: US Gulf growth weakens Mars to foreign crude
Growing crude output from the US Gulf coast is making coastal benchmark medium sour Mars less expensive than competing international crude grades, and export arbitrage opportunities are expected to continue in 2019.
Indicative of Mars crude export arbitrage strength, the Mars cost and freight (cfr) to China is at a discount to competing foreign grades after estimated delivery costs to the Asia Pacific for December. Mars cfr China averages $1.45/bl less than Basrah Light, about $1.10/bl less than Arab medium, and $1.50/bl less than west African crude delivered to Asia, according to Argus price data as of 18 December.
With record oil production set to continue in the US Gulf, the trend could persist. US Gulf coast output is projected to grow to 1.95mn b/d in 2019 after already setting records in production with an expected 1.73mn b/d in 2018 and 1.68mn b/d in 2017, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
New offshore sour crude production will continue to make Mars less expensive in relation to competing international grades. Three large offshore projects that were brought online in 2018 will ramp up toward full production in 2019, including Hess' 80,000 b/d-capacity Stampede project that started in January, Shell's 40,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) Kaikias project that started in May, and Chevron's 75,000 b/d Big Foot project that started in November.
These projects feed into the Mars stream with options to into Eugene Island, Poseidon, Bonito and Southern Green Canyon sour crude streams. First oil output from the LLOG-operated 30,000 b/d Buckskin development and Shell-operated 175,000 boe/d Appomattox is also expected to expand US Gulf sour crude supply in 2019.
Three VLCCs that departed the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) the week of 10 Decemberare destined for South Korea and India, according to vessel tracking data, and although one vessel was confirmed carrying light, sweet crude, typical crude cargoes loaded at the terminal are medium sour. The US Gulf coast is also anticipated to load at least 6.5mn bl of Mars in December for export purposes, according to preliminary data compiled by Argus.
In Europe, January Mars averages around a $1.70/bl discount to competing Urals after estimated delivery costs.
Demand for medium sour storage at the Gulf coast in forward months increased, as storage is commonly used to hold crude in advance of loading for export purposes. The highest price that cleared in the December LOOP auction was 10¢/bl for physical forward storage agreements in March 2019, versus 8¢/bl in the fourth quarter of 2019 in the prior auction.
Despite the discount to international grades, domestic refiners have been left in need of imported sour crude as Mars leaves the US to satisfy foreign demand. Argus data as of 18 December indicates that February Mars is at about a $1.80/bl discount to Basrah Light, around a $2.35/bl discount to Arab Medium and a $6/bl discount to Baltic Urals, after estimated delivery costs to the US Gulf coast within the same time.
US crude imports over the past four weeks have averaged 7.6mn b/d, up by 1.9pc from the same period last year, according to the EIA. The most recent EIA company-level import data indicate medium-sour crude imports also increased. Padd 3 imports of crude with a gravity of 20-34°API and sulfur content greater than or equal to 1pc amounted to 1.57mn b/d in September 2018, up from 1.27mn b/d in September 2017.
In November, about 714,000 bl of Urals were supplied to Lake Charles, Louisiana, on the Aframax NS Lotus, which departed from Primorsk on 20 October. It was the first import of Russian crude to Louisiana since December 2017, when roughly 310,000 bl were offloaded at Lake Charles, according to US Customs data.
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Pemex bajo presión para mantener refinación alta
Pemex bajo presión para mantener refinación alta
Mexico City, 7 May (Argus) — La refinación de crudo de Pemex, propiedad estatal de México, en marzo alcanzó sus niveles más altos en casi ocho años antes de las elecciones presidenciales del 2 de junio, pero la empresa podría enfrentarse a desafíos para mantener niveles de refinadoaltos en los próximos meses. Las seis refinerías nacionales de Pemex procesaron más de 1 millón b/d de crudo en marzo por primera vez desde junio de 2016, impulsadas por el progreso en la rehabilitación de las refinerías y una disminución de las exportaciones de crudo para alimentar el sistema de refinación. El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador busca reducir las importaciones de combustible en su último año en el cargo, en línea con su promesa de campaña de volver a México más independiente en energía. Sin embargo, los niveles de proceso de crudo podrían disminuir en abril-mayo después de que se produjeran incendios en las refinerías Minatitlán y Salina Cruz a finales de abril. Además, las refinerías de Salina Cruz (330,000 b/d) y Tula (315,000 b/d), las más grandes de México, siguen batallando con una producción elevada de combustóleo con alto contenido de azufre, lo que limita las capacidades de las refinerías para operar a altas tasas simultáneamente. Pemex lleva mucho tiempo luchando con la elevada producción de combustóleo, ya que México produce principalmente crudo pesado, lo que crea una serie de desafíos operativos. El combustóleo suele ocupar valioso espacio de almacenamiento necesario para productos de mayor valor, lo que puede limitar la producción de combustibles más ligeros. Las exportaciones récord de combustóleo en marzo, impulsadas por un aumento de la demanda en la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. después de los reacondicionamientos de la refinería, permitieron a Pemex elevar las operaciones en ambas refinerías simultáneamente. Sin embargo, el problema podría volver a afectar a Pemex en los próximos meses cuando la demanda de combustóleo disminuya y la empresa se vea obligada a almacenar el producto. Pemex está construyendo unidades de coquización en ambas refinerías para resolver este problema, pero no se espera que la unidad de Tula comience a funcionar hasta al menos finales de año, mientras que la unidad de coquización de Salina Cruz comenzaría a finales de 2025. Mientras tanto, la refinería Cadereyta de 275.000 b/d podría compensar parcialmente una disminución en el procesamiento de crudo en Tula y Salina Cruz, ya que su configuración le permite producir menos combustóleo, una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex ha dicho a Argus . Las tasas de refinación de Pemex comenzaron a caer en 2014 después de que la administración anterior decidiera depender menos de la producción nacional y centrarse en abrir el mercado de la energía, antes hermético a inversiones externas. En cambio, López Obrador invirtió al menos $3.7 mil millones en mantenimiento para las refinerías antiguas de Pemex de 2019-2023, excluyendo proyectos importantes como las coquizadoras en construcción, además de $17 mil millones para la nueva refinería Olmeca. Cambios en el flujo de crudo y combustible Los mayores niveles de refinación de Pemex han disminuido el flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU., y el arranque de Olmeca podría alterar aún más los flujos. Pemex redujo sus importaciones de gasolina y diésel en 25pc a 419,000 b/d en marzo, comparado con 562,000 b/d el año pasado, como resultado de un mejor rendimiento de las refinerías. Las exportaciones de crudo de México cayeron un 29pc hasta un mínimo histórico de 687,000 b/d en marzo, por una menor producción y mayores niveles de refinación. El flujo de crudo y combustible entre México y EE. UU. podría disminuir aún más una vez que Olmeca comience operaciones comerciales y si Pemex mantiene un alto nivel de refinación en sus otras refinerías. La refinería Olmeca comenzará a producir diésel de ultra bajo azufre esta semana, procesando destilados enviados desde la refinería Madero, dijo Pemex el 3 de mayo. Pero la refinería no ha cumplido varios plazos prometidos, el más reciente en abril. La unidad de destilación de crudo de la refinería, la primera unidad de procesamiento, se enfrenta a "problemas importantes" que han retrasado el inicio de la refinería, aunque otras unidades de procesamiento secundario están listas para comenzar, dijo a Argus una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de Pemex. Sin embargo, el mercado se mantiene escéptico de que se puedan mantener los niveles de refinación después de las elecciones del 2 de junio, ya que Pemex sigue enfrentándose a problemas operativos en sus refinerías. Pero la candidata del partido gobernante Claudia Sheinbaum lidera la votación con doble dígito y se espera que continúe el proyecto actual del gobierno para reforzar Pemex y aumentar los niveles de refinación de la empresa. Por Antonio Gozain Exportaciones de crudo, importaciones de combustible de Pemex ’000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US set to resume crude purchases for SPR
US set to resume crude purchases for SPR
Washington, 7 May (Argus) — The US is set to resume crude purchases for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), after calling off a planned 3mn bl refill last month following a rise in crude prices. The US Department of Energy (DOE) today said it plans to purchase up to 3.3mn bl of sour crude for delivery in October to the SPR's Big Hill storage site in Texas. The solicitation sets a maximum price of $79.99/bl for the offers, a slight increase from the $79/bl ceiling it used in the recent monthly purchases. The agency last month called off two pending solicitations that sought to buy 1.5mn bl/month for delivery to the SPR's Bayou Choctaw site in August and September, citing higher crude prices. The most recent SPR refill, nearly 2.8mn bl of sour crude for delivery in September, cost an average of $81.34/bl. DOE says it has has already purchased a total of 32.3mn bl at an average price of $76.98/bl, well below the average $95/bl it received from the sale of 180mn bl of crude from the SPR to respond to market turbulence after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Energy secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers last week that two out of four SPR sites were undergoing maintenance and would not be able to accept SPR deliveries until the end of the year. "We want to continue to fill it, and we will," Grahnolm said. The SPR held 367.2mn bl as of 3 May. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil lowers biofuel mix in flooded state
Brazil lowers biofuel mix in flooded state
Sao Paulo, 6 May (Argus) — Brazil's oil regulator ANP temporarily decreased the mandatory mix of ethanol and biodiesel in fuels in Rio Grande do Sul state for 30 days, starting on 3 May, amid floods in the region. The anhydrous ethanol blend on gasoline was lowered to 21pc from the current 27pc, while the mandatory biodiesel mix for 10ppm (S10) diesel is now at 2pc, down from the usual 14pc. The agency also temporarily suspended the blending mandate for diesel with 500ppm of sulfur (S500). ANP said it can revise deadlines depending on supply conditions in the state. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul blocked railways and highways where biofuels are transported to retail hubs, such as Esteio and Canoas. Supply of fossil fuels via pipeline from the 201,000 b/d Alberto Pasqualini refinery (Refap), in Canoas, and other retail bases has not been compromised, ANP said. Floods in Rio Grande do Sul have left at least 83 dead and 111 missing, according to the state government. More than 23,000 people have been forced from of their homes amid widespread damage. Over 330 cities are in a situation of public calamity. By Laura Guedes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Panama's new president faces copper, canal issues
Panama's new president faces copper, canal issues
Kingston, 6 May (Argus) — Stand-in candidate Jose Raul Mulino will take office on 1 July as president of Panama with a challenge to decide on the future of one of the biggest copper mines in the Americas. The 64 year-old lawyer won yesterday's presidential election in the central American country, promising a "pro-investment and pro-business" policy. He won with 35pc of the vote and an about 10 percentage point lead over his next closest rival, Ricardo Lombana. But he has delivered no comment on the future on the shuttered Canadian-owned copper facility that is one pillar of the country's economy. His government will use public works projects and incentives for foreign investors to restore economic growth, Molino said, without giving details. Panama also faces a crippling drought that has lowered water levels and reduced transit through the economically important Panama Canal. First Quantum intends to meet the new government to discuss reopening the mine, the company's chairman Robert Harding said in March. "Whatever government is elected, we will work with it," Harding said. "We would like to see this mine reopen." Panama closed the $10bn Cobre Panama mine after a supreme court ruling in November that First Quantum's contract was unconstitutional. The mine accounted for 5pc of the country's economy and 1.5pc of global copper output, according to the government. The shutdown will limit the country's economic growth to 2.5pc this year against 7.5pc in 2023, the IMF has forecast. The supreme court's order to close the mine followed weeks of protests over the terms given to First Quantum in October. Protests wracked the country as opposition parties, trade unions, environmental lobbies and non-governmental organizations objected to the terms. "Although the mine's owners would be happy to negotiate a reopening with the new administration, this is a very hot and controversial matter for the new government," a senior official of the outgoing government of President Laurentino Cortizo told Argus today. "Any suggestion of negotiating a reopening would again bring people on the streets." Mulino ran with former president Ricardo Martinelli until the courts disqualified Martinelli because of a money laundering conviction. Martinelli had proposed that Panama renegotiate the contract with First Quantum to secure higher royalties and a stake. "Mulino is a mentee of Martinelli, but I doubt he would stoke public anger by seeking to reopen the mine," the official said. Cobre Panama produced 331,000 t in 2023, 5pc less than 2022 output, First Quantum said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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