US shale sector bottoms out, faces hurdles to recovery
The US shale industry will look back at April-June as perhaps the worst quarter in its history, with most firms shutting in wells amid a slump in oil prices and demand. Yet while activity may now be bottoming out, the path to recovery looks choppy.
Leading US upstream independent ConocoPhillips has joined other shale producers with relatively strong balance sheets — such as Parsley, EOG Resources and Marathon Oil — in beginning to lay out plans to restart shut-in production. From this month it is reviving some of the 225,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d) of output it curtailed in the second quarter. It expects to report second-quarter production of 960,000-980,000 boe/d, in line with a year earlier but about 5pc below the first quarter. Around 65pc of its curtailments were in the lower 48 states.
A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of 115 upstream firms shows that 36pc planned to restart the bulk of their shut-ins in June and 20pc in July, with only 13pc putting it off to November or later. Key Bakken operator Continental Resources — one of the biggest cutters in the depths of the downturn, with curtailments at 70pc of production in May — will restore its July output to 50pc of its pre-pandemic level. It expects to report second-quarter output of 200,000-205,000 boe/d, down from 361,000 boe/d in the first quarter.
Amid the gradual restoration of output, the EIA has slightly increased its US crude production estimates for 2020 and 2021. It latest Short-Term Energy Outlook(STEO) forecasts output of 11.63mn b/d this year, up by 0.6pc from the previous forecast. And it has increased its projection for 2021 by 1.6pc to 11.01mn b/d. June production was about 11mn b/d, down by 1.9mn b/d from the record 12.9mn b/d reached in November 2019. And volumes this year are still expected to be down by 600,000 b/d compared with 2019 — the first annual drop since 2016.
The higher forecasts come amid a recovery in crude prices — with Nymex WTI trading above $40/bl — a far cry from the epic crash to minus $37.63/bl on 20 April. The EIA's STEO expects WTI to average $37.55/bl this year, up by about 7pc from the previous forecast. And as crude markets strengthen, the US oil rig count may finally be bottoming out after hitting a new historic low of 185 as of 2 July, a fall of 73pcsince the start of March, US oil service firm Baker Hughes says (see chart).
Rebase diving
But the host of challenges means the road ahead will be checkered. A key headwind is access to capital, as companies' borrowing ability shrinks further. Access is expected to decline as banks lower the value of producers' oil and gas reserves — often the main asset against which they raise funds — based on futures prices. In an indication of the scale of the cutback that producers are facing, Houston-based independent Talos Energy says its base value fell by 14pc to $985mn in the latest review, from $1.15bn. Overall, credit rating agency Moody's expects a decline of 20-30pc in the spring redetermination.
A lack of funds means that companies may struggle to juggle the need to service debt and invest in production. Reinvestment of cash flow is becoming topical, as operators may set spending targets well below cash flow to guarantee free cash flow through market cycles, US energy investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt says. Elevated debt levels mean the industry has little choice but to use more cash to reduce loans.
The strain is already beginning to show. US oil and gas bankruptcies rose to 18 in the second quarter, the highest quarterly level in four years, law firm Haynes and Boone says. "It is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy even if oil prices recover over the next few months," it says.
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Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Singapore, 3 May (Argus) — Indonesia's 7.6mn t/yr BP-operated Tangguh LNG facility is offering four LNG cargoes for June-July loading, through a tender that closes on 6 May. The Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia's west Papua province is offering four cargoes on a fob basis for loading on 17, 22, 27 June, and on 2 July, or two cargoes on a des basis. But the delivery windows are unclear. The firm was last in the market in March , when it offered four cargoes on a fob basis for loading during 28-29 April, 1-2 May, 3-4 May and 17-19 May, or three cargoes on a des basis for delivery over 6-8 May, 8-10 May and 12-14 May. But it is unclear if these cargoes were sold eventually. This offer adds to a growing pool of availability for June and July cargoes, as summer restocking demand among traditional major importing region northeast Asia is poised to be lower this year. This is mainly owing to higher inventories after the winter season and more than sufficient contracted term deliveries, buyers in the region said. This is despite Japan and South Korea forecasting higher summer temperatures this year as compared to the previous year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration on 23 April. Spot prices have remained relatively rangebound at around high-$9s to low-$10s/mn Btu since the end of March despite weak demand. Spot prices have been tracking some strength in Dutch TTF contract prices, which has reduced importers' incentive to step up spot purchases since imported spot has no obvious price advantage. The front half-month of the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — was last assessed on 3 May at $9.955/mn Btu, lower by about 11¢/mn Btu from a week earlier, but about 71¢/mn Btu higher from a month earlier. Spot demand has been mostly confined to south and southeast Asian importers. Most of southeast Asia is currently experiencing a heatwave, which is likely to continue driving spot LNG demand from firms like Thailand's state-controlled PTT. The firm has issued another tender seeking three deliveries over 1-2, 7-8 and 10-11 July that closed on 3 May. It may have awarded the tender, but further details are unclear, traders said. By Rou Urn Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US regulator slams executive over Opec 'collusion'
US regulator slams executive over Opec 'collusion'
Washington, 2 May (Argus) — US antitrust regulators for the first time took action against a leading US oil executive over his alleged "collusion" with Opec, but the producers' alliance itself was not a target of investigation. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) today issued a proposed consent order barring former Pioneer Natural Resources chief executive Scott Sheffield from joining the board of ExxonMobil following its $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer. FTC accused Sheffield of organizing "anti-competitive coordinated output reductions between and among US crude oil producers" and members of Opec and the broader Opec+ alliance. "Opec and Opec+ are cartels that exist to control global crude oil production and reserves," FTC said. The specific charges against Sheffield relate to the outspoken executive's frequent public appearances where he opined on US companies' desired production levels, his meetings and frequent communications with Opec officials since 2017 and his advocacy of drastic production cuts by US companies as global demand fell sharply at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Opec under then secretary general Mohammed Barkindo began active outreach to independent US producers, starting in March 2017 with private dinner discussions held on the sidelines of IHS CERAWeek conferences in Houston, Texas. Barkindo hosted similar discussions at CERAWeek in 2018 and 2019, in addition to hosting some of the US companies' chief executives at Opec seminars in Vienna. FTC references Sheffield's public comments following those meetings and alleges that Sheffield kept in frequent touch with Opec officials via messaging service WhatsApp and other means to discuss production levels and prices. Barkindo at the time said that production cuts and prices were never on the agenda of his meetings with the US shale producers and that his organization wanted to better understand the US companies' technological innovation and to compare market outlooks and forecast models. Barkindo in the same time frame held similar discussions with major US hedge funds and money managers. US oil executives polled by Argus in 2017-20 also said that their discussions with Barkindo and other Opec officials revolved around market fundamentals. The US oil industry broadly felt that it was benefiting from a policy of production cuts Opec was implementing as it supported prices at a time when the US domestic production and crude exports grew uninterrupted. Former president Donald Trump took credit for engineering a breakthrough agreement in April 2020 to remove more than 10mn b/d of global crude supply by brokering an agreement between Saudi Arabia, Russia and other Opec+ producers. Even without prodding from Trump, US producers cut back production cuts in 2020 as transportation fuel demand and prices fell sharply in the first months of the pandemic. FTC singled out Sheffield for allegedly coordinating his company's production levels with Opec. Sheffield "held repeated, private conversations with high-ranking Opec representatives assuring them that Pioneer and its Permian basin rivals were working hard to keep oil output artificially low," according to the FTC order. Sheffield, who helped found Pioneer and was its longtime chairman, served as chief executive from 1997 to 2016 and from 2019 through 2023. He remains on the company's board, serving as special adviser to the chief executive since 1 January. The son of an oil executive, Sheffield attended high school in Tehran, Iran. Pioneer shrugged off what it termed a "fundamental misunderstanding" of global oil markets and said that FTC misread "the nature and intent" of Sheffield's actions. Opec declined to comment on FTC's action against Sheffield. FTC is so far the only US regulator to set sights on Opec, even if indirectly. President Joe Biden in 2021 separately tasked FTC with leading an investigation into whether there is price manipulation in gasoline markets. Biden, like many of his predecessors at a time of high gasoline prices, in 2022 accused Opec of uncompetitive behavior in oil markets and expressed support for US legislation allowing antitrust action against the organization by the US Department of Justice. But that acrimony has largely dissipated after global oil and US gasoline prices fell in 2023 from unusually high levels in the previous year. US Congress has not taken significant steps to advance the anti-Opec legislation since 2022. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Corrects movement of grain loadings from a year earlier in final paragraph. Washington, 2 May (Argus) — Workers at the two major Canadian railroads could go on strike as soon as 22 May now that members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) have authorized a strike, potentially causing widespread disruption to shipments of commodities such as crude, coal and grain. A strike could disrupt rail traffic not only in Canada but also in the US and Mexico because trains would not be able to leave, nor could shipments enter into Canada. This labor action could be far more impactful than recent strikes because it would affect Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) at the same time. Union members at Canadian railroads have gone on strike individually in the past, which has left one of the two carriers to continue operating and handle some of their competitor's freight. But TCRC members completed a vote yesterday about whether to initiate a strike action at each carrier. The union represents about 9,300 workers employed at the two railroads. Roughly 98pc of union members that participated voted in favor of a strike beginning as early as 22 May, the union said. The union said talks are at an impasse. "After six months of negotiations with both companies, we are no closer to reaching a settlement than when we first began, TCRC president Paul Boucher said. Boucher warned that "a simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced." He added that the union does not want to provoke a rail crisis and wants to avoid a work stoppage. The union has argued that the railroads' proposals would harm safety practices. It has also sought an improved work-life balance. But CN and CPKC said the union continues to reject their proposals. CPKC "is committed to negotiating in good faith and responding to our employees' desire for higher pay and improved work-life balance, while respecting the best interests of all our railroaders, their families, our customers, and the North American economy." CN said it wants a contract that addresses the work life balance and productivity, benefiting the company and employees. But even when CN "proposed a solution that would not touch duty-rest rules, the union has rejected it," the railroad said. Canadian commodity volume has fallen this year with only rail shipments of chemicals, petroleum and petroleum products, and non-metallic minerals rising, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show. Volume data includes cars loaded in the US by Canadian carriers. Coal traffic dropped by 11pc during the 17 weeks ended on 27 April compared with a year earlier, AAR data show. Loadings of motor vehicles and parts have fallen by 5.2pc. CN and CPKC grain loadings fell by 4.3pc from a year earlier, while shipment of farm products and food fell by 9.3pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
New York, 2 May (Argus) — US antitrust regulators signaled they will clear ExxonMobil's proposed $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources but banned the shale giant's former chief executive officer from gaining a seat on the board. A proposed consent order from the Federal Trade Commission seeks to stop Scott Sheffield, Pioneer's former chief executive, from taking part in "collusive activity" that would potentially raise crude prices and cause US consumers to pay more at the pump. The order paves the way for ExxonMobil to close its blockbuster deal for Pioneer, which will make it the leading producer in the prolific Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is also the top US oil producer's biggest transaction since Exxon's 1999 merger with Mobil. ExxonMobil's Permian output will more than double to 1.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) when the acquisition closes, before increasing to about 2mn boe/d in 2027. The FTC, which has taken a tougher line on mergers under the administration of President Joe Biden, has paid close attention to oil deals announced during the latest phase of shale consolidation. Only this week, Diamondback Energy said it had received a second request for information from the regulator over its $26bn proposed takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources. And Chevron's planned $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess has also been held up. The FTC alleged in a complaint that Sheffield exchanged hundreds of text messages with Opec officials discussing crude pricing and output, and that he sought to align production across the Permian with the cartel. His past conduct "makes it crystal clear that he should be nowhere near Exxon's boardroom," said Kyle Mach, deputy director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition. ExxonMobil said it learnt about the allegations against Sheffield from the FTC. "They are entirely inconsistent with how we do business," the company said. While Pioneer said it disagreed with the FTC's complaint, which reflects a "fundamental misunderstanding" of US and global oil markets and "misreads the nature and intent" of Sheffield's actions, the company said it would not be taking any steps to stop the merger from closing. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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