Loadings of the North Sea's largest crude grade Johan Sverdrup will drop in September to their lowest since the field started up last year, as North Sea availabilities look increasingly tight.
Just 15 Aframax-sized cargoes of Norway's Johan Sverdrup crude are scheduled to load in September, according to the latest loading programme. At 300,000 b/d, September's loadings will be down by 35pc from August at their lowest since the field started up in October last year.
The shortage of Johan Sverdrup in September will add to an already tight North Sea supply situation. Loadings of fellow Norwegian grades Troll, Oseberg, Asgard, Alvheim, Gullfaks and Heidrun are all scheduled to slow in September from August, with only Statfjord and Goliat showing slight increases. Combined loadings of the nine Norwegian grades with programmes available will average just 897,000 b/d in September, a drop of 294,000 b/d, or 25pc, from August.
It was unclear whether the short loading programmes are a result of field maintenance or a response to the Norwegian government's production cuts. The Norwegian government has capped the country's crude output at 1.73mn b/d for the rest of the year in response to the low oil price environment.
But production could now exceed government caps in the following months. Revised licences issued by the Norwegian government allow any volumes not produced up to the quota in September to be produced in the fourth quarter instead.
The remainder of the North Sea's September loading programmes are expected to emerge in the coming days, but it is unlikely that increases elsewhere will offset the short programmes already released. Availabilities of key grade Forties are unlikely to rise significantly from August, as fields on the Forties Pipeline System are due to undergo their own maintenance outages in September.
