Brazil raises corn crop forecast

Brazil raised its estimate for corn output in the 2019-20 season to a 102.1mn t record after better than expected yields in key producing states.

The outlook, if accurate, would mark a 2.1pc increase over the prior cycle, according to the country's agricultural statistics agency Conab today. Last month, Conab expected corn production of 100.6mn t.

The upward revision comes after states such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul reported better than expected yields, even as crops in these states remain on track to be lower than last year because of a severe drought in February-May.

For Parana, Conab now forecasts a harvest of 15.2mn t of corn in 2019-20, from the 14.9mn t seen in July. For Mato Grosso do Sul, its estimate is for an 8.8mn t production, versus 8.6mn t seen last month. There were increases for forecasts in other key-states such as Goias, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso, which is Brazil's top producer of grains and oilseeds.

For soybeans, whose harvest was mostly finished by April, there were few changes, and Conab pegs the national harvest at a 121mn t record, up by 5.1pc from a year earlier. Cotton lint production was estimated at 2.9mn t, while the wheat harvest is seen at nearly 7mn t.

Considering all the grains and oilseeds, Brazil is on track to produce a 253.7mn t record, from 251.4mn t expected in July and 242.1mn t produced in 2018-19.

Exports

The record pace of exports in the past months led Conab to raise its forecast for soybean shipments in the 2019-20 season to 82mn t, from 80mn t previously expected. It would be the second-largest volume ever shipped by Brazil, only behind the nearly 84mn t in 2017-18.

For corn, exports remain pegged at 34.5mn t, with ending stocks raised to 10.3mn t, from 8.7mn t in July, given the higher output.

Cotton lint exports are seen at 1.9mn t, compared to 1.7mn t expected last month and 1.6mn t shipped in the prior cycle.

By José Roberto Gomes