Mexico eyes future as LNG exporter
The completion of key pipeline projects has made Mexico confident that it could export LNG in the future, but its plans face tough competition.
The completion of the final leg of Mexican firm Fermaca's 5bn ft³/d (141.5mn m³/d) Wahalajara pipeline network last month marked the beginning of the end for the country's pipeline build-out. Ramped-up pipeline flows from the US have already reduced Mexico's reliance on LNG imports in recent months, and with US gas now reaching most of the country, Mexico may even have surplus volumes that it could export as LNG.
The prospect of Mexico exporting LNG was "unthinkable 5-6 years ago", Fermaca subsidiary Santa Fe Gas chief executive Santiago Garcia said, rejecting suggestions that increasing market competition could make such plans challenging. Growing Asian demand will require continuous growth of global liquefaction capacity, and the location of planned export facilities on Mexico's Pacific coast — which would eliminate the need to transit the Panama canal — will give Mexican facilities a competitive advantage, he added.
US firm Sempra Energy's Mexican arm plans to convert the existing Energia Costa Azul (ECA) import terminal on the country's Pacific coast into a liquefaction facility, with a final investment decision (FID) expected by the end of this year. There could also be scope for the 3.2mn t/yr Manzanillo import facility to be converted into a liquefaction facility, using gas supply through the Wahalajara pipeline, Garcia said. Alternative options would see Manzanillo continuing to receive LNG for periodic back-up supply or operate as a storage facility, he added.
Such plans face numerous headwinds. An FID on the ECA facility has been delayed multiple times despite Mexican private-sector firm IEnova already securing offtake agreements for the entire terminal's planned capacity, with the firm encountering difficulties in securing an export license. In July, Shell also filed an arbitration claim related to its storage contract at the terminal. The granting of ECA's export license could also depend on IEnova's agreement to build a second LNG export facility in Topolobampo, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador suggested last month.
Mexico will also have to compete for a market share with other large-scale export projects, such as those planned in Mozambique, as well as Qatar's planned expansion of the Ras Laffan complex. The global LNG market is expected to remain oversupplied until 2025, with the planned increase in liquefaction capacity set to outpace demand growth, the Paris-based IEA said in June. This coupled with the uncertain impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global gas demand has further weakened appetite for investments in LNG projects, as low prices and buyers' reluctance to secure long-term deals "severely constrain capital budgets among developers", the IEA said.
While the geographical location could give Mexican facilities a logistical advantage, such projects would have to rely on gas imports from the US rather than on domestic production, especially given declining domestic output and the Mexican government's reluctance to carry out hydraulic fracturing, Garcia said. New domestic production in Mexico would have to be sold at $4.00-4.50/mn Btu in order to break even, Garcia said, making it uncompetitive with gas imports from the Permian basin.
With declining upstream production in Mexico and domestic demand set to grow further in the coming years, the issue of how to use the imported gas is also a divisive one. "Some are of the view that the pipeline imports should be for Mexico only," Garcia said, adding that the domestic network would need further development for domestic demand to develop further.
Mexico's network expansion is "behind the last mile", but the Mexican system is still "20-30 years behind" US infrastructure, head of government affairs at Fermaca, Fernando Alonso, said. New interconnectors are need to avoid bottle-necking on a number of lines, including the the 886mn ft³/d Villa de Reyes-Aguascalientes-Guadalajara (VAG) pipeline. The two largest pipeline systems in the 25-line build-out, the Wahalajara and Texas-Tuxpan systems, are still operating at less than 50pc, while delays to completing the 886mn ft³/d Tuxpan-Tula and 886mn ft³/d Tula-Villa de Reyes pipelines have led to bottlenecks on the Texas-Tuxpan line.
Related news posts
Australia’s Empire Energy signs deal to sell gas to NT
Australia’s Empire Energy signs deal to sell gas to NT
Adelaide, 26 July (Argus) — Australian independent Empire Energy has signed an agreement to supply the Northern Territory (NT) with gas from its Carpentaria project in the onshore Beetaloo subbasin. Empire will supply NT with up to 25 TJ/d (668,000 m³/d) of gas over 10 years, starting from mid-2025. This equates to an estimated total supply of 75PJ (2bn m3) of gas. The deal includes scope for an additional 10 TJ/d for up to 10 years if production level at the Carpentaria plant exceeds 100 TJ/d. The firm bought domestic utility AGL Energy's dormant 42 TJ/d Rosalind Park gas plant late last yearwith plans to reassemble the facility on site at Carpentaria, subject to a final investment decision on the project. Gas will be delivered to the NT government-owned Power and Water (PWC) via the McArthur River gas pipeline on an ex-field take-or-pay basis, Empire said on 26 July. PWC in April signed an agreement to buy 8.6PJ of gas from Australian independent Central Petroleum , to supply gas-fired power generation and private-sector customers. Low production at Italian energy firm Eni's Blacktip field, offshore the NT, has led PWC to court new supply while providing a new outlet for prospective producers operating within Beetaloo. The largest Beetaloo acreage holder, Tamboran Resources, has revealed ambitious plans for a 6.6mn t/yr LNG plant to be located near Darwin Harbour's two existing LNG projects, using the basin's shale gas resources as feedstock. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
London, 25 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies said today that a worsening performance at its downstream Refining & Chemicals business and its Integrated LNG segment led to a 7pc year-on-year decline in profit in the second quarter. Profit of $3.79bn was down from $5.72bn for the January-March quarter and from $4.09bn in the second quarter of 2023. When adjusted for inventory effects and special items, profit was $4.67bn — slightly lower than analysts had been expecting and 6pc down on the immediately preceding quarter. The biggest hit to profits was at the Refining & Chemicals segment, which reported an adjusted operating profit of $639mn for the April-June period, a 36pc fall on the year. Earlier in July, TotalEnergies had flagged lower refining margins in Europe and the Middle East, with its European Refining Margin Marker down by 37pc to $44.9/t compared with the first quarter. This margin decline was partially compensated for by an increase in its refineries' utilisation rate: to 84pc in April-June from 79pc in the first quarter. The company's Integrated LNG business saw a 13pc year on year decline in its adjusted operating profit, to $1.15bn. TotalEnergies cited lower LNG prices and sales, and said its gas trading operation "did not fully benefit in markets characterised by lower volatility than during the first half of 2023." A bright spot was the Exploration & Production business, where adjusted operating profit rose by 14pc on the year to $2.67bn. This was mainly driven by higher oil prices, which were partially offset by lower gas realisations and production. The company's second-quarter production averaged 2.44mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), down by 1pc from 2.46mn boe/d reported for the January-March period and from the 2.47mn boe/d average in the second quarter of 2023. TotalEnergies attributed the quarter-on-quarter decline to a greater level of planned maintenance, particularly in the North Sea. But it said its underlying production — excluding the Canadian oil sands assets it sold last year — was up by 3pc on the year. This was largely thanks to the start up and ramp up of projects including Mero 2 offshore Brazil, Block 10 in Oman, Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North in Norway, Akpo West in Nigeria and Absheron in Azerbaijan. TotalEnergies said production also benefited from its entry into the producing fields Ratawi, in Iraq, and Dorado in the US. The company expects production in a 2.4mn-2.45mn boe/d range in the third quarter, when its Anchor project in the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to start up. The company increased profit at its Integrated Power segment, which contains its renewables and gas-fired power operations. Adjusted operating profit rose by 12pc year-on-year to $502mn and net power production rose by 10pc to 9.1TWh. TotalEnergies' cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.78bn in April-June — an 8pc fall from a year earlier. The company has maintained its second interim dividend for 2024 at €0.79/share and plans to buy back up to $2bn of its shares in the third quarter, in line with its repurchases in previous quarters. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Repsol 2Q profit doubles but cash flow turns negative
Repsol 2Q profit doubles but cash flow turns negative
Madrid, 24 July (Argus) — Spanish integrated Repsol's profit more than doubled on the year in the second quarter, as lower one-time losses and better results in the upstream and customer divisions more than offset a weaker refining performance. But its cash flow turned negative as it completed the buyout of its UK joint venture with China's state-controlled Sinopec, raised investments and experienced weaker refining margins. Net debt was sharply higher, largely reflecting share buy-backs. Repsol has said it will acquire and cancel a further 20mn of its own shares before the end of the year, which will probably further increase its debt. It completed a 40mn buy-back in the first half of the year. Repsol's profit climbed to €657mn ($714mn) in April-June from €308mn a year earlier, when earnings were hit by a large provision against an arbitration ruling that obliged it to acquire Sinopec's stake in their UK joint venture. Excluding this and other special items, such as a near threefold reduction in the negative inventory effect to €85mn, Repsol's adjusted profit increased by 4pc on the year to €859mn. Repsol confirmed the fall in refining margins and upstream production reported earlier in July . Liquids output increased by 3pc on the year to 214,000 b/d, and gas production fell by 4pc to 2.1bn ft³/d. Adjusted upstream profit increased by 4pc on the year to €427mn. The higher crude production and a 13pc rise in realised prices to $78.6/bl more than offset lower gas production and prices, which fell by 6pc to $3.1/'000 ft³ over the same period. Adjusted profit at Repsol's industrial division — which includes 1mn b/d of Spanish and Peruvian refining capacity, an olefins-focused petrochemicals division, and a gas and oil product trading business — was down by 16pc on the year at €288mn. Profit fell at the 117,000 b/d Pampilla refinery in Peru after a turnaround and weak refining margins, and there was lower income from gas trading. Spanish refining profit rose on a higher utilisation rate and gains in oil product trading. Repsol's customer-focused division reported adjusted profit of €158mn in April-June, 7pc higher on the year thanks to higher retail electricity margins, a jump in sales from an expanded customer base, higher margins in aviation fuels and higher sales volumes in lubricants. Repsol swung to a negative free cash flow, before shareholder remuneration and buy-backs, of €574mn in the second quarter, from a positive €392mn a year earlier. After shareholder remuneration, including the share buy-backs and dividends, Repsol had a negative cash position of €1.12bn compared with a positive €133mn a year earlier. Repsol's net debt more than doubled to €4.595bn at the end of June from €2.096bn on 31 December 2023, reflecting the share buy-backs and new leases of equipment. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Equinor 2Q profit supported by higher European output
Equinor 2Q profit supported by higher European output
London, 24 July (Argus) — Norway's state-controlled Equinor posted a small rise in profit on the year in the April-June period, as a lift in its European production offset lower gas prices. Equinor reported a profit of $1.87bn in the second quarter, up by 2.2pc on the year but down by 30pc from the first three months of 2024. The company paid two Norwegian corporation tax instalments, totalling $6.98bn, in the second quarter, compared with one in the first quarter. Equinor paid $7.85bn in tax in April-June in total. Its average liquids price in the second quarter was $77.6/bl, up by 10pc from the second quarter of 2023. But average gas prices for Equinor's Norwegian and US production fell in the same period by 17pc and 6pc, respectively. The company noted "strong operational performance and lower impact from turnarounds" on the Norwegian offshore, including new output from the Breidablikk field . Equinor's entitlement production was 1.92mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in April-June, up by 3pc on the year. The company cited "high production" from Norway's Troll and Oseberg fields in the second quarter, as well as new output from the UK's Buzzard field. But US output slid, owing to offshore turnarounds and "planned curtailments onshore to capture higher value when demand is higher", the company said. It estimates oil and gas production across 2024 will be "stable" compared with last year, while its renewable power generation is expected to increase by around 70pc across the same timespan. Equinor's share of power generation rose by 14pc on the year to 1.1TWh in April-June. Of this, 655GWh was renewables — almost doubling on the year — driven by new onshore wind capacity in Brazil and Poland. "Construction is progressing" on the UK's 1.2GW Dogger Bank A offshore windfarm , Equinor said. It is aiming for full commercial operations in the first half of 2025 at Dogger Bank A — a joint venture with UK utility SSE. Equinor was granted three new licences in June to develop CO2 storage in Norway and Denmark. The Norwegian licences — Albondigas and Kinno — together have CO2 storage potential of 10mn t/yr. The Danish onshore licence, for which Equinor was awarded a 60pc stake, has potential capacity of 12mn t/yr. Equinor has a goal of 30mn-50mn t/yr of CO2 transport and storage capacity by 2035. The company's scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions amounted to 5.6mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in the first half of the year, edging lower from 5.8mn t/CO2e in January-June 2023. It also incrementally cut its upstream CO2 intensity, from 6.7 kg/boe across 2023, to 6.3 kg/boe in the first half of this year. Equinor has kept its ordinary cash dividend steady , at $0.35/share, and will continue the extraordinary cash dividend of $0.35/share for the second quarter. It will launch a third $1.6bn tranche of its share buyback programme on 25 July. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more