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MPOC sees Malaysian palm oil output, exports rising

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 05/04/21

An uptick in Malaysia's palm oil supplies and exports will suppress month-end stocks during 2021 and limit price volatility in the second quarter, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

Palm oil output by the world's second-biggest producer is expected to rise by 2pc to 19.6mn t in 2021 compared with last year and export volumes may grow by 0.6pc to 17.5mn t, said the council's chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail during the first day of MPOC's palm oil internet seminar today.

These supply and demand pressures will squeeze inventories, keeping month-end stocks below 1.5mn t for most of the year. Inventories dipped to 1.3mn t in December, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, for the first time ever and lingered below 1.5mn t in the first few months of this year.

The MPOC expects the benchmark third-month crude palm oil contract to reach a low of 3,502 ringgit/t ($846/t) and a peak of 4,190 ringgit/t on the Bursa Malaysia exchange during the second quarter, averaging 3,846 ringgit/t.

The contract closed the morning at 3,787 ringgit/t, near flat from last week's close but following two straight weeks of volatility amid a changing global vegetable oil supply picture.

Rallying feedstock palm oil prices, culminating in a 13-year high early last month, have put palm methyl ester (PME) biodiesel trade on hold since the middle of last year.

By Lauren Moffitt

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19/12/25

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

London, 17 December (Argus) — A change in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is pushing the Netherlands, a key renewable fuel ticket market in Europe, to pivot from compliance based on energy share to greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, and should benefit fuels with higher emission savings. The Netherlands will switch to GHG-based ERE tickets on 1 January 2026. The mandate will apply retroactively if the legislation is passed beyond that date. The move more closely aligns Dutch compliance with Germany's THG quota and accelerates a broader shift to reward fuels with high greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, as well as RED Annex IX Part A feedstock status, positioning advanced Fame, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and biomethane as front-runners. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce their GHGs by 14.5pc, or to have a 29pc renewable energy share in their overall fuel mix. This is a significant step-up from RED II, which only required states to have 14pc renewable energy in their mix by 2030. Most major states incentivise the uptake of RED targets through the use of renewable fuel ticket systems. Tickets are used by companies supplying liquid or gaseous fossil fuels in the country and are obligated to pay excise duty or energy tax on fuels. They can be traded to meet obligations and are primarily generated via the blending of renewable fuels into fossil fuels, with additional sources of tickets including electricity used to charge e-vehicles. The Dutch change will benefit fuels with higher emissions savings and move away from a more simplistic approach where one HBE ticket is equal to 1 GJ of energy use, with multipliers available based on feedstock type. The current four HBE categories will expand to 16 types of ERE tickets , defined by transport sector — land, inland waterways and maritime — as well as feedstock. An HBE-to-ERE ratio of 1:46, as per the Dutch Emissions Authority's (NEa) guidance, has already begun to guide transitional pricing. All 2025 HBEs must be submitted by 30 April, after which any non-redeemed HBEs will be converted into EREs, subject to a legal cap on the amount that can be carried from year to year. Premiums for RED Annex IX Part A fuels should grow as demand for corresponding ERE-Gs does the same. But ERE-B values — comprising fuels from RED Annex IX Part B feedstocks — will be affected by a mismatch between RED III vs FuelEU Maritime rules . Shipping mismatch Under FuelEU, a separate legislation from RED III, Part B fuels remain eligible, whereas the domestic transposition of RED III means EREs count the same as using fossil fuel for only the maritime obligation. Shipping vessels are likely to either bunker elsewhere, or opt for Part A fuels that can meet both mandates. Maritime suppliers can source up to 0.9pc of their mix from road and inland waterways, preserving a narrow role for Part B fuels via cross-sector ERE flows. But EREs from shipping cannot be used by land suppliers. Aviation fuel blending will no longer generate Dutch tickets, removing a source of Part B tickets, as the bio-component of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has mostly been produced from used cooking oil. Overall, liquidity in the Netherlands will fragment by sector — LREs for land, BREs for inland shipping and ZREs for maritime shipping — all taking a Dutch acronym. Across the EU, GHG-based transport fuel mandates with tight feedstock caps should tighten supply of Part A fuels and renewable fuels from non-biological origin (RFNBOs), while remaining energy-based systems may lean on conventional and Part B biofuels. The Dutch-German axis, as the largest GHG-based ticket markets, may increasingly anchor to Part A fuel tickets. Advanced biofuel suppliers will be monitoring which market provides better ticket value for their fuel at a given time. France also plans to replace its energy-based TIRUERT tickets with GHG-based IRICCs in 2027 . Outside the RED III remit, the UK is consulting on whether to follow suit as it updates its RTFO scheme; consultation updates are expected in early 2026, and any resulting changes are expected in 2027. By Madeleine Jenkins Fuel ticket systems in Europe GHG-based renewable fuel ticket systems Germany – THG (€/t CO₂e) Austria - THG (€/t CO₂e) Netherlands – ERE (€/kg CO₂e) Energy-based renewable fuel ticket systems Belgium – HEE (€/megajoule) Ireland – RTFO (€/megajoule) Italy – CIC (€/10 Gcal) France - TIRUERT (€/m3, €/MWh) Spain – CCRs (€/toe) Portugal – TbD (€/toe) Volumetric-based renewable fuel ticket systems UK – RTFO (£/litre) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

Singapore, 17 December (Argus) — Hong Kong-based biofuels producer EcoCeres has exported the first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) volumes produced at its new hydrotreated biofuels plant in Johor, Malaysia, according to a company LinkedIn post and company sources. EcoCeres exported 10,000t of SAF last week, a company source said. The cargo was purchased by Mitsui Energy Trading Singapore (Mets), a subsidiary of Mitsui, and was loaded on a vessel that sailed from Tanjung Langsat and is bound for Europe, EcoCeres said in its LinkedIn post. The Medium Range vessel Stolt Glory loaded 10,000t of SAF from Tanjung Langsat on 5 December, and is due to reach Rotterdam in mid-January, according to Kpler data. But another company source declined to confirm if this was EcoCeres' cargo. The biofuels producer previously produced its first on-specification SAF volumes at Johor in October . The plant, which can produce a maximum of 420,000 t/year of SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), is now running at full rates, a company source said. The Argus fob ARA SAF price fell to nearly four-month lows of $2,247/t on 3 December, but has since risen slightly to $2,281/t as of 16 December. The decline was likely on the back of a lack of urgency among EU suppliers to fulfill mandates at the start of the new obligation year, although some volumes were traded this week , possibly because buyers were locking in deals in advance. EcoCeres also operates another 350,000 t/yr SAF and HVO plant in Jiangsu, China. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

16/12/25
News
16/12/25

Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 soybean planting advanced to 94.1pc of the expected area in the week ended 13 December, according to national supply company Conab. Planting advanced by 3.8 percentage points from the week prior. The 2024-25 sowing was 96.8pc complete at this time in 2024. The five-year average for the period is 90.6pc. Sowing activities have finished in central-western Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, and southern Parana states. Summer corn Planting for the 2025-26 first corn crop reached 77.5pc of Brazil's expected area, up by 6.2 percentage points on the week, according to Conab. That is slightly ahead of the 75pc planted at this time last year for the 2024-25 cycle. This season's progress is also ahead of the 70.3pc five-year average for the period. Parana and Sao Paulo have already finished planting. Cotton Planting activities for the 2025-26 cotton crop reached 10.1pc completion in the week ended 13 December, according to Conab. Activities advanced by 4.8 percentage points from the previous week. Northeastern Maranhao is the only state where activities have not started. Sowing nationwide is slightly above the five-year average for the period of 5.8pc, but below the 12.2pc pace in the same week last season. Wheat The 2025 wheat harvest advanced by 1.7 percentage points to 99.7pc of the area sowed nationwide in the week ended 13 December. The 2024 crop was 100pc harvested at this time a year ago. This season's progress is slightly ahead of the 98.7pc five-year average for the week. By Bruno Castro Planting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Soybean crop, 2025-26 Tocantins 98.0 93.0 99.0 89.8 Maranhao 42.0 38.0 59.0 51.4 Piaui 88.0 78.0 94.0 76.2 Bahia 97.0 94.0 97.0 87.2 Mato Grosso 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 98.8 Goias 97.0 92.0 99.3 92.4 Minas Gerais 100.0 98.2 100.0 94.6 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.8 Parana 100.0 97.0 100.0 98.0 Santa Catarina 86.0 79.0 91.0 79.9 Rio Grande do Sul 81.0 69.0 91.0 70.6 Total 94.1 90.3 96.8 90.6 Summer corn crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.6 Piaui 8.0 4.0 10.0 5.2 Bahia 86.0 71.0 63.0 58.0 Goias 80.0 70.0 99.0 64.4 Minas Gerais 97.0 85.2 100.0 89.8 Sao Paulo 100.0 90.0 100.0 92.2 Parana 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 99.7 98.9 100.0 98.4 Rio Grande do Sul 90.0 87.0 88.0 86.0 Total 77.5 71.3 75.0 70.3 Cotton crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Piaui 5.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 Bahia 32.0 20.0 43.0 21.6 Mato Grosso 2.4 0.8 2.5 0.9 Mato Grosso do Sul 22.0 10.0 45.0 16.6 Goias 45.0 5.0 54.0 21.2 Minas Gerais 33.0 16.0 38.0 13.4 Total 10.1 5.3 12.2 5.8 — Conab Harvesting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Wheat crop, 2025 Goias 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Minas Gerais 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Bahia 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Rio Grande do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 96.2 Parana 100.0 99.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 93.0 74.0 100.0 85.0 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 99.7 98.0 100.0 98.7 — Conab Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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