Mexico's incumbent Morena party could lose its simple majority of the lower house that let it pass legislation boosting state-owned energy companies in recent months, based on preliminary mid-term election results.
The party of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears far from the two-thirds majority that would have allowed it to more easily make constitutional changes to energy and other sectors.
Morena had won a projected 190-203 of the 500 seats with 35pc of votes counted as of 12:10am ET on 7 June. It could lose close to 50-60 seats compared with the 256 seats it had gained in the 2018 election that also swept Lopez Obrador into power. The president and Morena have walked back by legislative reform and policy decisions many tenets of the 2014 energy reform that opened the previously monopolized sector to competition. These mid-term elections — unlike most which typically draw less attention — were seen as key in possibly tipping the balance of whether Morena could more rapidly embark on wholesale changes.
Participation looks set to be the highest in Mexico's history for a mid-term election, with roughly 50pc of the 93.3mn eligible voters participating.
Key allied parties of Morena appear set to have another combined 75-89 seats that would leave Morena and its allies with 245-271 seats. Morena and its allies could miss holding even a simple majority.
The next party with the most votes after Morena is so far the right-wing, national action party (PAN) with 20pc of the votes, and 106-117 seats. This party formed an alliance with the centrist PRI that has 18pc of the votes and 63-75 of the seats and with the moderate left-wing PRD that had 3pc and 12-21 seats for a combined 41pc. The three parties together form the main opposition to the Lopez Obrador government.
"Morena will no longer no have the majority of the lower house to change on a whim the constitution, or to weaken autonomous institutions, including the election authority," national action party head Marko Cortes said.
The citizen movement (MC) party emerged with 7pc of the votes. The new, independent party has not aligned with either other major group and could provide critical votes.
Results in the 15 states that chose governors are progressing more slowly, with less than 5pc of those votes counted. There is only one clear winner for the right-wing national action party (PAN) in industrial Queretaro. Elections for governors were expected to be close in many states.
More comprehensive results are expected by 9 July. The final vote count and seat distribution in congress will be official on 23 August. The next legislative session will begin on 1 September.
The energy reform's secondary laws, such as the hydrocarbon law, are at a stake. Private investors have challenged in court, successfully in many cases, legislative reforms to allow state-owned Pemex to compete as any other company and to how fuel permits are granted. A more balanced congress would make it more difficult for the president to challenge laws and maintain the independence of the supreme court.
The election was relatively calm, with 99.7pc of election sites working normally, yet there was some sporadic violence and alleged thefts of ballot boxes.
