Rising demand for newbuild tankers this year has increased the global orderbook, which could delay a rebound in rates when these enter the market from 2023, according to research firm VesselsValue and shipping analyst ViaMar.
Their report forecasts higher rates in the tanker market through to 2024, but said the fleet growth could lead to "a longer path to full recovery".
Ordering activity was strong in the first six months of this year even though spot rates were low, and only the first half of 2015 saw a higher level of orders in deadweight (dwt) terms. But there were considerably fewer new orders in the third quarter of this year — the lowest quarterly level since 2011.
The current tanker fleet is likely to be "more than sufficient" to meet the increase in cargoes in the market arising from the Opec+ group's easing of production constraints by 400,000 b/d. This could mean short-term limitations on any rate rises through to 2022, "especially if Opec does not raise production above its stated plan," the report said.
The need to meet ship efficiency standards will also affect the fleet, the companies said. The most readily-available solution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets set by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is reducing ship speed, which will weigh on tanker availability and potentially push rates higher from 2023, the report said.
The report expects spot tanker revenues this year to average "the lowest levels recorded in 20 years", illustrating the effect of Opec+ production cuts and the Covid-19 pandemic. But it forecasts rates to rise in all sectors every year to 2024.
