Australia trade can benefit in low GHG economy: report

  • Market: Coal, Coking coal, Metals, Natural gas
  • 01/11/21

The move to a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive global economy would significantly change Australia's trade profile given that exports account for around 25pc of its economy and are dominated by fossil fuels and steel making commodities, according to a report by the Australian government's climate policy advisor.

But the country's abundance of minerals for low emission technologies and the ability to export renewable power will see new exports emerge.

The report by the Australian government's climate policy advisor the Climate Change Authority (CCA) said international trade has historically rested on factors such as the relative costs of production, quality, and security of supply. As the world shifts towards net-zero emissions, carbon content will become increasingly important for competitive advantage.

Australia has some of the world's best resources for producing electricity from solar and wind resources, extensive landscapes conducive to sequestration of carbon, and large reserves of the raw materials required for low emissions technologies, such as lithium, uranium, nickel and copper, the CCA said in the report titled Trade and Investment Trends in a Decarbonising World.

"We also have the potential to decarbonise exports with high embedded emissions, such as steel and aluminium," said the CCA report. The report referred to initiatives by Australian iron ore producers Fortescue Metals Group looking to produce steel with hydrogen by removing coking coal from the process. UK-Australian iron ore producer Rio Tinto and steel producer BlueScope last week said that they will jointly explore low-carbon steel production using Pilbara iron ore, including the use of hydrogen to replace coking coal at BlueScope's Port Kembla Steelworks in Australia.

Iron ore is Australia's largest export by value and volume. Australia is also the world's largest exporter of metallurgical coal, the largest LNG exporter and the second largest thermal coal exporter.

Achieving net-zero emissions will require a major reorientation in global investment. On a decarbonisation trajectory consistent with the Paris agreement, global low carbon investment would more than triple on current levels to average $2.4 trillion/yr over the next 30 years, the CCA said.

Over the same period, fossil fuel investment would almost halve to $580bn a year. The economics of energy markets will drive significant growth in low emissions investment in coming decades, even in the absence of new policy drivers, the CCA said. The private sector is beginning to limit financing for fossil fuel projects, particularly thermal coal and sustainable finance is growing, although the shift remains in the early stages, it said.

"We will need to produce the cleanest exports at the lowest cost to succeed in overseas markets," the CCA said.

Given its abundant renewable resources of solar and wind, global investors are looking to Australia as an ideal site for large scale renewable electricity projects with trade potential, the CCA said.

There are three significant renewable energy export project proposals in Australia, include the Sun Cable project.

Trade policies could be used against countries not reducing emissions at a rate consistent with the Paris agreement goal to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, it said. The world's largest economies, including some of Australia's key trading partners, are considering using trade to drive global decarbonisation, including measures such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms. These actions by governments add to the growing push from markets and consumers for companies to disclose their supply chain emissions and certify the carbon content of their products, it said.

Last week Australia said it will set a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, but only released vague plans of how to achieve this target.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
29/04/24

Service firms talk up long-term gas prospects

Service firms talk up long-term gas prospects

New York, 29 April (Argus) — Leading oil field service firms are bullish on the outlook for natural gas demand in coming years even though the fuel remains stuck in the doldrums for now, with US prices near pandemic lows amid oversupply after a mild winter. "This is the age of gas," Baker Hughes chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says, adding that global demand for the power plant and heating fuel is due to climb by almost 20pc through 2040. "Gas is abundant, lower emission, low cost, and the speed to scale is unrivalled," he says. Halliburton also sees natural gas as the "next big leg of growth" in North America, driven by demand for LNG expansion projects, although its current plans do not envisage any comeback this year. Given a shrinking fracking fleet and lack of new equipment being built, the stage is set for an "incredibly tight market" in future, chief executive Jeff Miller says. A recovery in natural gas activity in the US may not happen until the end of this year or even 2025, Liberty Energy chief executive Chris Wright says. "Customers need to see that prices have firmed, that export volume demand actually is pulling upward at a meaningful rate," he says. On recent first-quarter earnings calls, service firms were upbeat about international growth prospects in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The backdrop remains one of growing demand for oil and gas and an "even deeper focus" on energy security, according to Olivier Le Peuch, chief executive of SLB, the world's biggest oil field service company. SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger, expects overseas growth momentum to make up for a slowdown in North America this year. "The relevance of oil and gas in the energy mix continues to support further investments in capacity expansion, particularly in the Middle East and in long-cycle projects across global offshore markets," Le Peuch says. But results in North America will be depressed by the combination of low gas prices, capital discipline and producer consolidation. International rescue Halliburton expects international revenue growth in the "low double-digits" for the full year, with some margin expansion given the tight market for equipment and labour. Steady activity levels are seen in North America after land completion activity bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rebounded in the first quarter. "The world requires more energy, not less, and I'm more convinced than ever that oil and gas will fill a critical role in the global energy mix for decades to come," Miller says. The positive outlook is reinforced by customers' multi-year activity plans across markets and assets. Baker Hughes forecasts "high single-digit growth" when it comes to the outlook for international drilling and completion spending this year. But customer spending in North America is expected to fall in a "low to mid-single-digit range" when compared with 2023. "We continue to anticipate declining activity in the US gas basins, partially offsetting modest improvement in oil activity during the second half of the year," Simonelli says. Beyond 2024, upstream spending is seen growing further across international markets, albeit at a "more moderate" pace than seen in recent years, according to Baker Hughes. SLB paced a decline among oil service stocks at the end of January when state-controlled Saudi Aramco scrapped plans to increase crude output capacity to 13mn b/d from 12mn b/d. But Saudi Arabia has stepped up its plans to boost gas output, by 60pc by 2030. This new energy mix was not anticipated six months ago, but it will "not have a natural impact on our ambition for growth" in Saudi Arabia, Le Peuch says. And Saudi gas plans will require substantial investment in gas infrastructure, which is a "long-term net positive" for Baker Hughes, Simonelli says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Read more
News

Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March


29/04/24
News
29/04/24

Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March

Shanghai, 29 April (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports declined sharply in March as import demand from Vietnam diminished, while the South Korean market remained bearish. Total exports in March retreated by 17pc on the month and by 10pc from the previous year, reaching 516,000t, according to Japan's customs data. Total exports dropped by 4.6pc on the year to 1.6mn t in the first quarter. Japanese scrap exporters encountered challenges because of declining overseas demand since March, as buyers became more cautious in the face of weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery. Scrap exports will likely remain subdued in the coming months, according to trade sources. Vietnamese buyers were active in the seaborne market at the beginning of the year, but rising inventory levels and uncertainties in the steel sector outlook led them to step back after February. Exports to Vietnam in March dropped by 21pc on the month. The South Korean market is not expected to rise significantly in the near term as domestic scrap prices continued to fall, dropping by $50-60/t over the past three months. "South Korean buyers only fulfilled long-term contracts and stayed away from the spot market," a Japanese trader said. Exports to South Korea plummeted by 38pc to 470,000t in the first quarter. Exports to Taiwan dropped significantly by 41pc from the previous month as buyers were more focused on purchases of containerised scrap. Exports to Malaysia remained steady above 30,000t in March, while exports to the Philippines decreased from 34,000t in February to 13,000t. But a depreciation of the Japanese yen allowed exporters to offer relatively more competitive prices compared to other suppliers, with buyers price sensitive given a sluggish steel market. The yen started to weaken in March, reaching above ¥155:$1 at the end of April from $146.8:$1 in mid-March. Japan ferrous scrap exports (t) Country March % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar '23 Jan-Mar % ± on year Vietnam 210,014 -20.7 20.7 683,821 48.0 South Korea 156,851 -9.8 -32.2 469,644 -38.1 Bangladesh 43,755 13.8 N/A 91,205 79.0 Taiwan 35,329 -40.8 -62.8 140,755 -28.8 Others 70,023 -20.6 -7.2 213,587 3.0 Total 515,971 -17.4 -10.4 1,599,011 -4.6 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction


29/04/24
News
29/04/24

BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction

Corrects total volume of LNG supplied in paragraph 2 Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — BP has signed another long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with South Korean state-owned importer Kogas, the former said today. BP will provide Kogas with up to 9.8mn t of LNG over 11 years from mid-2026 on a des basis. But other details regarding pricing and the origin of the contracted supplies were not available. This most recent deal is in addition to the existing long-term sales and purchase agreement between the two companies that was signed in 2022. Kogas on 22 April 2022 signed an 18-year LNG purchase agreement to buy 1.58mn t/yr of LNG from BP that will begin in 2025. Australian independent Woodside Energy and Kogas in February signed a sales and purchase deal for term supplies of LNG to South Korea. The deal for 500,000 t/yr on a des basis will start in 2026 and run for 10½ years. Kogas may be seeking more imported term supply as the firm has increased its downstream contractual supply deals. Kogas signed a series of deals to supply gas to subsidiaries of the country's state-controlled utility Kepco in December 2023. By Simone Tam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Singapore’s Jadestone cuts 2024 output guidance


29/04/24
News
29/04/24

Singapore’s Jadestone cuts 2024 output guidance

Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — Singapore-listed independent Jadestone Energy has cut its 2024 oil and gas production guidance, citing disappointing first-quarter group production. Jadestone said the impact of planned and unplanned downtime across its portfolio resulted in it narrowing its guidance from 20,000-23,000 bl of oil equivalent (boe/d) to 20,000-22,000 boe/d in its results for 2023 published on 29 April. Average production for January-March was 17,200 boe/d, which Jadestone said reflected the impact on its Australian assets, including the 6,000 b/d Montara oil field, of an active cyclone season at the start of 2024. The firm produced 14,000 b/d in 2023, up from 11,500 b/d in 2022. But problems at Montara and lower realised oil prices resulted in a loss of $91mn in 2023 following a $9mn profit recorded in 2023. Jadestone's realised oil price of $87.34/boe in 2023 was 16pc lower than $103.85/boe a year earlier. Proved and probable reserves at the end of 2023 totalled 68mn boe, a 5pc increase on a year's earlier 64.8mn boe, mainly because of the acquisition of a 9.52pc stake in Thailand's Sinphuhorm gas field and increases at the Cossack, Wanaea, Lambert and Hermes oil fields offshore Australia and the Akatara gas field in Indonesia's Sumatra. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australia’s QPM hikes gas reserves estimate


29/04/24
News
29/04/24

Australia’s QPM hikes gas reserves estimate

Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — The energy arm of Australian battery metals firm Queensland Pacific Metals (QPM) has announced its certified reserves have increased more than a third on previous estimates at its Moranbah gas project (MGP) in Queensland state. QPM Energy (QPME) reported a 38pc increase in its total proven and probable (2P) gas reserves to 331PJ (8.8bn m³) on 29 April compared with a March 2022 estimate of 240PJ, as it pivots towards its energy business and pauses spending on its proposed Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub (TECH) project . QPME's waste coal mine gas reserves will be developed along with 300MW of new gas-fired power generation at the firm's Moranbah facilities located in the Bowen basin, a metallurgical and thermal coal producing region. The company is also planning to build compressed natural gas and micro-LNG facilities to distribute gas to northern Queensland customers. The company will seek to increase its output by 25pc to 35 TJ/d (935,000 m³/d) by late 2024, up from October-December 2023's average of 28 TJ/d by drilling a further seven wells by the year's end. A rig has arrived on site for drilling the first well of its Teviot Brook South Well programme, QPM said on 24 April. Australian independent Blue Energy, which is developing the Sapphire pilot project with 59PJ of 2P reserves near MGP, said QPM has confirmed it intends on taking gas Blue makes available to the MGP, in line with an existing non-binding agreement signed in June last year. Blue and QPME's parent company QPM also have a separate non-binding deal for supply of 7 PJ/yr of gas over 15 years to the TECH project. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more