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Latest market news

US' Alcoa, Australia's Equus ink 10-year gas sales deal

  • Market: Electricity, Metals, Natural gas
  • 14/08/26

Australian gas developer Equus Energy has signed a binding 10-year gas sales agreement (GSA) with global aluminium producer Alcoa to supply gas from the planned Equus project offshore Western Australia to Alcoa.

Equus will provide 50 TJ/d of gas to Alcoa, equivalent to 182PJ over the term of the deal, the company said on 14 August. Alcoa will use the supplies to power its expanding portfolio of Western Australia-based (WA) alumina refineries.

In return, Alcoa will provide advance payment of $30mn to complete a front-end engineering design (Feed) study for the Equus project in Western Australia's North West Shelf region.

The funding will cover project costs until it reaches a final investment decision (FID), Equus said. It did not specify a timeline for the FID.

Equus, which was known as Western Gas until December 2025, completed a pre-Feed study for the Equus project in May, confirming project design of 50 TJ/d of domestic gas, 2mn t/yr of LNG for export markets, and 12,000 b/d of condensate production over a 15-year project life.

The project will address a peak day gas supply shortfall in Western Australia and will represent 5pc of the Western Australian domestic gas market upon completion, Equus said.

Annual peak day gas demand in Western Australia is set to increase from 2026 by 36pc to 558 TJ/d in 2035 with the winter season recording the highest demand levels, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator's (Aemo) 2025 Western Australian Gas Statement of Opportunities. This is despite an expected decline in overall annual gas consumption over the same period due to increased large-scale wind and solar generation, Aemo said.

The deal with Alcoa will fully satisfy Equus' commitments under Western Australia's domestic gas reservation policy, the company said. The reservation policy mandates that Western Australia-based gas producers retain at least 15pc of production for sale in the domestic market over a project's life.

Alcoa operates the 30.5mn t/yr bauxite mine and the 4.2mn t/yr Pinjarra and 2.85mn t/yr Wagerup alumina refineries in Western Australia.

Alcoa bought most of Australian mining company South32's aluminium supply chain stakes in June, including the 37mn t/yr Worsley bauxite mine and 4.4mn t/yr Worsley alumina refinery in Western Asutralia.

Alcoa signed a three-year gas sales agreement with Australian independent Woodside Energy for 31.1PJ in June, which will begin in 2027. The company also secured a 10-year gas sales agreement with LNG operator Chevron in December 2024 for 130PJ, starting from 2028.

This has built on Alcoa's existing 10-year gas sales agreements with Chevron, ExxonMobil and Australian independent Warrego Energy for a total of 198PJ of gas to its alumina refineries in Western Australia, starting in 2024.

By Daniel Gage-Brown

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13/08/26

Argentina’s inflation extends gains

Argentina’s inflation extends gains

Montevideo, 13 August (Argus) — Argentina's annual inflation continued to increase in July, hitting 33.8pc, another high for the year and more than three times the government target. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 33.5pc in June from a year earlier, up from 33.2pc in May, the statistics agency Indec reported. The latest figure was down from 36.6pc in July 2025. Leading the annualized increase was housing/utility, up 48.9pc, while transportation prices were up 40.9pc, education 40pc and entertainment, 36.7pc. Food/beverages increased by 34.5pc. All the leading categories were up compared to the previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 2.1pc in June, up from 1.9pc and matching the 2.1pc May rate. It peaked at 3.4pc in March for the year. President Javier Milei's administration forecasts inflation at 10pc for the year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts inflation at 30.4pc this year. -By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand

13/08/26
News
13/08/26

Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand

Houston, 13 August (Argus) — US oil and gas drilling companies and rig owners have boosted their demand outlooks because of the global crude oil supply shock from the US-Iran war. US drilling contractors and oil country tubular goods (OCTG) producers now anticipate higher oil prices and increased oil and gas drilling to raise US demand in the second half of 2026, a far cry from declining rig counts and lower oil prices at the start of the year. Pipe and tube companies are bullish as crude oil prices bolstered by the war in the Middle East raise US drilling activity. The Argus West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fob Houston assessment stood at $84.82/bl on 11 August, up from $68.19/bl at the end of February and before the onset of the war. Rig contractors raise estimates Publicly traded drilling rig contractors have seen the greatest shift, as they now expect a second quarterly rig count increase. Drilling rig contractor Helmerich & Payne (H&P)'s shifting outlook reflects the war-fueled reversal of fortune in the industry. At the end of 2025, H&P lowered its rig count estimates for the first quarter because of lower oil prices and drilling activity. "Going into [2026], things felt relatively bearish, but I do think it's quite a different story right now," H&P chief financial office Todd Scruggs said. "We think this [third quarter] is a pretty good marker for where we're going to be in [2027], we actually think we will be improving from this base." But the stronger outlook remains contingent on oil prices staying elevated and the conflict not widening into a disruption that undercuts economic growth or drilling budgets. At the end of the first quarter, H&P and fellow drilling rig contractors Nabors and Patterson-UTI guided for the second quarter an average of 294-301 active US drilling rigs between them. The rig operators surpassed that outlook and exited the second quarter with an estimated 316 active drilling rigs in the US, which the companies expect to grow to an approximate 324 active rigs by the end of the third quarter. US private and independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies drove higher drilling rig demand as they capitalized on higher crude oil prices, gains that are expected to continue in the back half of the year. The US weekly active drilling rig count has held at 588 since mid July, the highest level since April 2025 and up from 539 a year earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Pipe producers expect US volumes to grow As more US drilling rigs activate, OCTG producers are working to take advantage of greater demand, import constraints and tight inventories. Higher US drilling activity and lower import volumes raised Vallourec's second quarter US tubular mill production and OCTG prices, chief executive Philippe Guillemot said on a 30 July earnings call. He added that US OCTG inventory levels are below five-year averages. Tenaris chief executive Gabriel Podskubka said the company's Bay City, Texas, seamless OCTG mill is running at record production levels to meet demand. OCTG prices have responded to the shortage and higher demand. The Argus Pipe Logix OCTG all items index, which reflects distributor selling prices, has climbed by $45/short ton (st) in July to $2,233/st, which is $224/st higher since the start of the year. Domestic OCTG mills have pushed about $600/st of price increases into the market and have struggled to bridge a large import supply gap despite raising production. US domestic OCTG pipe mill shipments collected by Argus and import volumes less exports from January-June are at 2.24mn st, down by about 500,000st from the same period in the prior year. OCTG supply declined solely on lower import volumes as major foreign OCTG suppliers like Austria and Taiwan are under US antidumping investigations, causing many US buyers to refrain from importing from those countries. The majority of US OCTG distributors remain optimistic that pricing will continue to rise, with the Argus OCTG distributors index at a positive reading of 86 in July, down by two points from June and the fifth consecutive positive reading. Multiple OCTG distributors reported sourcing difficulties in July for certain products that they would normally buy as imports and cannot find domestically. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australia bails out Tomago Al smelter for $1.77bn

13/08/26
News
13/08/26

Australia bails out Tomago Al smelter for $1.77bn

Sydney, 13 August (Argus) — The Australian federal and New South Wales (NSW) state governments have committed A$2.5bn ($1.77bn) to keep UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto's 590,000 t/yr Tomago aluminium smelter in NSW running until 2038. Tomago's current power supply agreement is set to expire on 31 December 2028, but the subsidy will support a 10-year power purchase agreement (PPA) for the smelter until 2038, which will be fully powered by renewable energy from 2033, Rio Tinto said on 13 August. The government funds will be used to build 3GW of new renewable generation and firming capacity, the federal government said today, finalising a promise made in late 2025 . Rio Tinto will also invest A$1.1bn of its own capital to fund the PPA, including a A$100mn allocation to decarbonise the smelter. Rio Tinto owns 51.55pc of Tomago. The remainder is controlled by Australian distributor Gove Aluminium Finance and Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro, with 36.05pc and 12.4pc respectively. Rio Tinto also operates the 39mn t/yr Weipa and 13mn t/yr Gove bauxite mines in northern Queensland, as well as the 3.95mn t/yr QAL and 1.7mn t/yr Yarwun alumina refineries near Gladstone in Queensland. Rio Tinto's 190,000 t/yr Bell Bay aluminium smelter in Tasmania also deserves similar federal support, Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff said on 12 August. Federal and state governments gave A$2bn to Rio Tinto's 500,000 t/yr Boyne smelter in central Queensland in March to subsidise its operations until 2038. They have also issued billions of dollars in grants and loans to copper, steel and zinc smelters since last year. Price uncertainty Taxpayers will "receive the added benefit of a monetary return on [the] investment" if aluminium prices rise, the government said. Aluminium prices have been supported since February by supply disruption in the Mideast Gulf caused by the US-Iran war, as well as strong electric vehicle demand in China. But acute supply tightness has pushed prices higher than demand levels would normally justify, meaning that an end to the conflict may push prices down again. Prices have already dropped sharply from a peak in early June following expectations of a resolution to the war. Moreover, supply fundamentals could shift well before 2038, as Indonesia is set to almost triple aluminium production to 2.5mn t/yr by 2027. Argus -assessed London Metal Exchange aluminium cash official prices were down at $3,307.250/t on 12 August ( see graph ). By Daniel Gage-Brown Aluminium prices 2025-26 USD/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

China's spodumene market awaits supply-demand signals

13/08/26
News
13/08/26

China's spodumene market awaits supply-demand signals

Beijing, 13 August (Argus) — China's imported spodumene market has remained relatively stable on broadly balanced market fundamentals, with its direction in the coming months likely to depend on how supply and demand dynamics evolve. Argus assessed 6pc spodumene concentrate at $2,020-2,120/t cif China on 11 August, unchanged from 4 August. Prices held steady over the period, as increased supply from Zimbabwe offset the impact of higher lithium salt prices and prevented further gains. Argus launched the world's first 5-5.5pc spodumene concentrate assessment in December 2025. The assessment stood at $1,820-1,970/t cif China on 11 August, also unchanged from 4 August. The launch reflected growing demand for lower-grade material, as years of intensive mining have reduced average spodumene grades from around 5.5-6.2pc to 5-5.5pc or lower at some operations. Shipments from Zimbabwe to China have continued to recover following the country's resumption of spodumene exports in April after an export ban introduced in February. This has been reflected in higher spodumene exports from South Africa, through which a significant portion of Zimbabwean shipments is routed. South Africa exported 111,514t of spodumene in May and 110,829t in June, up from 56,506t in April, according to customs data. China's spodumene supply base is also becoming more diversified. Australia remains the country's largest supplier, while Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Mali and Zimbabwe have emerged as important sources in recent years. Current lithium prices are viewed by market participants as attractive enough to encourage new project development and capacity expansion. Argus -assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate prices stood at 145,000-150,000 yuan/t ex-works on 12 August, a key benchmark indicator for the wider lithium market, up by around 20pc from the start of the year. Supply is increasing as Zimbabwean shipments recover and additional capacity comes on line in other regions. At the same time, demand is also growing. The direction of spodumene prices in the coming months will largely depend on whether supply or demand expands at a faster pace, market participants said. Global lithium demand has remained robust this year, driven by continued growth in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors. China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales continued to rise in July, with the penetration rate reaching a record 60.4pc, supported primarily by strong export demand. Higher oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East have continued to improve the cost competitiveness of NEVs relative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Energy storage systems are also seeing rapid global deployment. The sector has been characterised by accelerating project commissioning, expanding overseas partnerships by Chinese battery manufacturers and increasing competition among battery chemistries. Global cumulative energy storage capacity reached around 280GW at the end of 2025, up by about 67pc from a year earlier, according to industry estimates. Strong downstream demand has also supported lithium chemical production. China's combined output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 724,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in January-June, up by 26pc from a year earlier, according to data from the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

New Jersey board proposes lower RPS target for 2029

12/08/26
News
12/08/26

New Jersey board proposes lower RPS target for 2029

Houston, 12 August (Argus) — New Jersey regulators proposed cuts to the state's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in the 2029 reporting period, more than a year after they first signaled they were considering the adjustments. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) on Wednesday kicked off a process that could result in it lowering the Class I obligations for utilities during the 2029 energy year to 45pc, from the current 47pc. The compliance period spans June 2028-May 2029. The board will next publish a notice of proposal in the New Jersey Register , which will start a 60-day public comment period. In addition to modifying the 2029 RPS minimum, the proposal would officially codify previously approved changes to the 2026-28 targets. The BPU last year held the 2026 objective at 35pc of retail sales, rather than allowing it to rise to 38pc as scheduled, and earlier this year cut the 2027 and 2028 goals to 35pc and 40pc, respectively, from their original 41pc and 44pc mandates. Renewable energy certificates (RECs) traded sharply higher on the news, after uncertainty about the extent of the BPU's proposed changes weighed on prices during Tuesday's session. Futures transactions for the 2029 RECs occurred as high as $29.15/MWh on Wednesday morning, $1.45 higher than Argus assessed the vintage Tuesday. The BPU has previously sought feedback on larger adjustments to the RPS program, such as opening Class I eligibility to out-of-state solar projects, which would have much greater impacts on the supply and demand balance throughout the region. The ambiguity around the extent of the board's intentions had spooked some participants, driving credits lower. Thus, despite the BPU signaling it could adopt lower targets for the 2029 reporting period, market confidence rebounded upon learning the proposed changes would be relatively narrow. The BPU first floated changes to the 2027-2031 RPS targets in May 2025, when it froze the 2026 requirements. At the time, the board directed its staff to investigate the requirements for those years, part of a larger push to diminish costs borne by ratepayers after a series of record-high capacity auctions in the PJM region, a 13-state grid territory that includes New Jersey. Staff in March floated amendments to the 2027-29 periods, with the BPU ultimately adopting the reduced 2027-28 targets in May. But the agency postponed a decision on the 2029 modifications at the time, wanting to further consider the matter. The RPS peaks at 50pc in 2030. Getting literal about 'solar farms' The BPU on Wednesday also approved 16 projects that collectively represent 52MW of solar capacity for the state's "dual-use" pilot program, which is designed to support agrivoltaic projects in which active farmland coincides with solar generation. The projects, which individually range from less than 1MW to 5.5MW in size, will ultimately generate credits for New Jersey's SREC-II credits program. While SREC-II credits do not count toward the RPS in-state photovoltaic carve-out, they do count toward the broader Class I requirements. The board endorsed the pilot program's first solicitation last year, attempting to bolster the state's renewable energy fleet without ceding prime farmland in the process. The pilot will run for 36 months, with the board setting specific capacity targets for each program year for an overall allocation of 200MW. The awards granted to the first batch of projects land between $106.91-$228.58/MWh. By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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