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Latest market news

Ecuador lifts oil force majeure as crisis eases

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 06/01/22

Ecuador lifted force majeure on its oil sector after its two main crude pipelines resumed operations.

Another flare-up in riverbed erosion in Napo province led to the December shutdowns of state-owned PetroEcuador's 360,000 b/d SOTE pipeline and the 450,000 b/d OCP line owned by a consortium of other producers. The government declared force majeure on 12 December to facilitate the reprogramming of exports.

Ecuador's crude production recovered to around 412,000 b/d on 4 January, up from a December average of just 207,000 b/d but still shy of a January-November average of 470,000 b/d, according to energy regulator ARC.

By Alberto Araujo

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Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

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05/02/26

Crude Summit: Brazilian export logistics are stretched

Crude Summit: Brazilian export logistics are stretched

New York, 4 February (Argus) — Brazilian crude exporters are working to address bottlenecks that are becoming overburdened by the country's surging exports, according to speakers at the Argus Americas Crude Summit today. The potential lack of enough dynamic positioning (DP) tankers to ferry crude from the country's offshore production sites to the coast for transfer onto standard tankers for export is "something everyone has to be worried about," said Fernando Colares Nogueira, Petrobras' head of crude oil, said at the event. Brazil's crude production climbed by 12pc year over year to 3.77mn b/d in 2025 , and is expected to rise further this year . To meet the demand, Petrobras has six of these DP tankers on order, said Nogueira, which would add to the roughly 50 that already operate along the Brazilian coast. The port of Acu is the receiving port for much of these crude-laden DP tankers, but is struggling to keep up with the rising ship-to-ship transfers happening at the port and needs "relief", said PetroChina International Trading's vice president of crude Alipio Ferreira. Petrochina is investing in improving port infrastructure across the country, including building a new terminal in Puerto Central, said Ferreira. By Nicholas Watt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit: Canadian oil to Asia is ‘kicking up’

04/02/26
News
04/02/26

Crude Summit: Canadian oil to Asia is ‘kicking up’

Houston, 4 February (Argus) — Canadian crude highly sought by Asian refiners and the region will "pick up the slack" if Californian demand wanes, Trans Mountain said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas. "We've been pleasantly surprised by the increase in demand, and it is primarily China and it is primarily petrochemical demand," Trans Mountain vice president of business development Jason Balasch said. "It's been kicking up lately." California has also been a key destination for Canadian crude after Trans Mountain's 590,000 b/d expansion came online in May 2024, but aging refineries and stringent state regulations are prompting downstream operators to shutter facilities. Chinese refiners meanwhile have taken a shine to Canadian crude, like Access Western Blend (AWB), which has both light and a heavy ends. The crude's ability to produce higher amounts of naphtha is especially of interest, as that is a key feedstock for the country's growing petrochemical industry. The now 890,000 b/d dual pipeline system has given Albertan oil producers a meaningful alternative to shipping almost all of its crude to US refiners, while removing any doubts over how willing Asian refiners would be to take Aframax-sized cargoes from Vancouver, British Columbia. "As we approached startup in late 2023, early 2024, it was viewed primarily as a California export play, but it's really becoming an Asian play," said Balasch. The demand for space on Trans Mountain's system is evident in utilization that averaged above 90pc in the fourth quarter, according to Balasch. This is up from 87pc in the third quarter and, coupled with restrictions on Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline that delivers crude into the US, is another signal more space out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin will be needed. Further expansion of Trans Mountain system is being planned to help meet growing Asian demand. The federally-owned company is less than two years removed from bringing online its 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, and this week applied to the regulator to increase capacity by 90,000 b/d using drag reducing agent (DRA). The DRA project could be online as early as January 2027, according to the application. Trans Mountain is considering another 210,000 b/d expansion after that, which could be brought online in either 2029 or 2030, Balasch said. That would bring total pipeline capacity up to about 1.19mn b/d, with another 35,000 b/d potentially flowing "seasonally". Moving mountains Even with optimization projects, a pipeline pinch is expected by many forecasters, including RBN president David Braziel, who said rising Canadian production may outpace egress as early as 2027 or 2028. Politically, energy security is now top of mind, which has shone a bright light on the missteps by Canada's approach to oil and gas development over the past decade, Braziel said, but political will is not all that is required. "Politics is politics," said Braziel. "It's really the economics of projects and the markets that are going to fundamentally decide what gets built." Optimization projects by Trans Mountain and Enbridge are expected to give some relief, but yet another supply crunch may develop beyond 2030, raising the need for another pipeline altogether. If Trans Mountain's two optimization projects are completed, the pipeline will be physically maxed out with no other low hanging fruit left to deliver large tranches of capacity. The Alberta government has long-called for more pipeline capacity and is planning to submit a proposal to the federal government by June. Alberta premiere Danielle Smith said previously a 1mn b/d pipeline to British Columbia's north coast would be ideal and has made an arrangement with Canada's prime minister Mark Carney to pursue those plans, but that will be no small feat. Carney wants to further diversify trade away from a hostile US administration and energy is a key component of talks, making strides with other countries who have also been caught up in US president Donald Trump's trade wars. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit: Brazil not worried about Venezuela crude

04/02/26
News
04/02/26

Crude Summit: Brazil not worried about Venezuela crude

Houston, 4 February (Argus) — Rising volumes of heavy sour Venezuelan crude will not compete with Brazilian grades because they cater to different markets, panelists said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, today. In the short term, less than 300,000 b/d of Venezuela crude will head to the US while Brazil will keep sending barrels worldwide, mainly to Asia, said PetroChina International Trading's vice president of crude Alipio Ferreira. "It makes a lot of sense for American refiners to buy this," Ferreira said. The Venezuelan crude will compete with other grades including Western Canadian Select (WCS), and crudes from Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia, said state-controlled Petrobras' global crude oil manager Fernando Colares Nogueira on the sidelines of the conference. More Venezuelan heavy sour crude is hitting the global market after trading firms Trafigura and Vitol were approved by the US government to market unsanctioned Venezuelan oil following the US capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. More recently, the US lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports, with caveats prohibiting sales to Cuba, business deals involving many Chinese companies and oil-for-debt arrangements. The lifting of sanctions will allow Venezuela's state-owned PdV to directly sell cargoes to eligible buyers abroad. Brazil is the sixth-largest oil producer, with output increasing by about 400,000 b/d in 2025, part of a boom in crude production in Latin America that will continue, Nogueira said. Most of Brazil's exports will continue to go to Asia though the end of the decade , Ferreira said. Growing supply from Brazil and Argentina could also lead to an increase in co-loading cargoes with crude from the two countries going to China, Ferreira said. Petrobras has already co-loaded crude from the two countries on a very large crude carrier (VLCC) — one time late last year and once early in 2026, Ferreira said. The co-loading involves a ship-to-ship transfer. Argentina sent a few cargoes of light sweet Medanito crude to Asia-Pacific at the start of this year as producers try to expand the grade's market in the region. Only four Medanito cargoes headed to Asia-Pacific in 2024, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. The growing number of shipments to Asia come as a consortium of eight Argentinian producers build a new oil pipeline, the 271-mile Vaca Muerta Sur, connecting the Vaca Muerta shale fields, from where Medanito is produced, to the Punta Colorada port. The new port will handle VLCCs. The lack of VLCC loading has been one of the biggest bottlenecks for expanding Medanito's reach to Asian markets. Currently, draft limitations cap Argentina exports to a maximum 800,000 bl on Suezmaxes or Aframaxes, which makes sales to Asia-Pacific mostly unfeasible. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer

04/02/26
News
04/02/26

Crude Summit: Court tariff overturn likely: Lighthizer

Houston, 4 February (Argus) — At least parts of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime will likely be overturned by the US Supreme Court, according to former US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, but the administration will find other ways to keep their intent intact. "My guess is that there'll be, to some extent, an overruling of what he did," Lighthizer said today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas. Lighthizer, considered an architect of the current White House tariff policy, said they would not go away even with an unfavorable court ruling, which is expected in the coming weeks. "It's clearly easier and better if you can do it under IEEPA," Lighthizer said, referring to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the 1977 law that Trump has used to impose reciprocal tariffs on dozens of global trading partners. "But if he can't, I think he'll have the same policy," just using other tools to impose similar tariffs. "He has those tools. It's a little more complicated process." Lighthizer, who helped orchestrate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020 that spells out trade between the three countries, said further changes were needed as a renewal of the deal approaches later this year. "There will be some tweaks in Canada," he said, particularly with regard to agriculture. "There'll be some more substantial change with respect to Mexico, and particularly taking on this issue of China's influence in Mexico." Direct energy imports have largely been spared from most of the Trump tariffs, but oil companies complain tariffs have increased drilling costs by making steel imports more costly. The uncertainly of the on-again/off-again tariff have also increased economic uncertainty and made planning difficult for energy firms. But Lighthizer said Trump has a "very favorable attitude" toward the energy sector in general. While tariffs may have increased the cost of steel "the payoff will be pretty big" he said, when the wider economy takes off as a result of a rebalance of long-standing trade deficits. Lighthizer dismissed arguments that tariffs cause inflation, and said the policy has been a great success. "You can say they could have done it in a less chaotic way," Lighthizer said. "Maybe that's true, maybe it's not true." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey

03/02/26
News
03/02/26

Mexico 2026 GDP outlook edges higher in Jan survey

Mexico City, 3 February (Argus) — Private-sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook in the central bank's January survey, as forecasts adjust to data last week showing stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate rose to 1.3pc from 1.15pc in the mid-December survey, while the 2027 outlook edged down to 1.8pc from 1.85pc. Mexico's economy expanded by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, led by solid expansion in the agriculture sector and more modest growth in the industrial and services sectors. Growth prospects for 2026 and 2027 hinge on a timely and successful renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, scheduled to conclude in July, multiple market sources told Argus . Optimism around the talks is reflected in the survey's quarterly breakdown, which projects 2026 GDP growth accelerating to 1.54pc in the third quarter from 1.1pc in the second quarter. Public security remained the top perceived risk to short-term GDP growth, widening its lead over foreign trade concerns, with both risks receiving at least twice as many responses as other factors cited in the survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly higher in the January survey, moving to 3.95pc from 3.88pc in December. The estimate for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous survey at 3.75pc. Annual inflation slowed to 3.69pc in December — the lowest December reading since 2020 — from 3.8pc in November, driven by easing agricultural and energy prices and some moderation in core inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.33pc from 4.43pc, though it remained above the central bank's 4pc upper target for an eighth consecutive month. The central bank cut the target rate to 7pc on 18 December from 10pc at the start of 2025, with analysts expecting the tightening cycle to end this year and the rate to close 2026 at 6.5pc. The bank's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 5 February. Analysts also strengthened their peso forecast, projecting an end-2026 exchange rate of Ps18.50/$1, compared with Ps19.23/$1 in the previous survey. The end-2027 forecast moved to Ps19.00/$1 from Ps19.45/$1. The US dollar weakened roughly 4pc against the peso over the last month, trading at Ps17.26/$1 on 3 February compared with Ps17.9/$1 on 3 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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