US oil, gas demand to climb through 2050: EIA

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
03/03/22

Oil and natural gas will remain the dominant sources of energy in the US through 2050, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its latest long-term outlook.

US petroleum consumption will grow by 0.5pc/yr to 22.3mn b/d by 2050, according to the baseline scenario in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook. Domestic gas consumption is set to increase by 0.4pc/yr over that same period to 93 Bcf/d (2.6bn m3/d), during which US net exports of natural gas through LNG and pipeline will grow by 2.5pc/yr to 23 Bcf/d by 2050.

Oil and gas are set to retain their positions as the largest two energy sources in the US over the next three decades, even with renewable power increasing by nearly 150pc by 2050, the outlook said.

"We do not see liquid fuels and natural gas losing their place as the top two sources of energy in the US to 2050," EIA deputy administrator Stephen Nalley said. "That appears to be true under a pretty wide variety of assumptions about economic growth, technology and energy development costs and prices."

US gasoline demand is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels of 9.3mn b/d reached in 2019, and instead will range from 8.7-9.1mn b/d through 2050 as rising fuel-economy and electric vehicle growth offsets a 0.9pc/yr increase in driving by cars and trucks, the outlook said. The electric vehicle stock will reach 13pc of light-duty vehicles by 2050, up from 3pc last year, EIA said.

EIA prepared the long-term outlook before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, meaning it does not factor in the potential effects from long-term changes in oil and gas prices stemming from the invasion and resulting sanctions. The outlook expects global crude benchmark Brent will climb from $70/bl this year to $90/bl by 2050, well below today's $110.46/bl settlement price for the May contract.

In the electricity sector, the US is expected to derive nearly 40pc of its power from wind, solar and hydroelectric by 2050, up from 23pc today. Coal's power generating market share will decline to 11pc by 2050, down from 23pc today, according to the baseline scenario.

By Chris Knight

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23/06/25

US refiners boost jet production despite clouds

Houston, 23 June (Argus) — Some US refiners are boosting jet fuel production despite tariff-related economic uncertainties that could affect travel demand. Marathon Petroleum, one of the largest US independent refiners, is spending millions to increase jet fuel capacity at its 253,000 b/d Robinson refinery in Illinois. The project will increase the refinery's flexibility to optimise jet output to meet growing demand, chief executive Maryann Mannen says. The company plans to spend $150mn on the project this year and another $50mn in 2026. Marathon would not disclose the planned jet capacity at the refinery but says the project will be ready by the end of 2026. Another independent refiner, CVR Energy, is increasing jet capacity at its Coffeyville, Kansas, refinery. The company is installing piping and revamping storage tanks at the 132,000 b/d facility to enable 9,000 b/d of jet output by the end of the third quarter, chief executive David Lamp says. Jet production is not subject to a Renewable Volume Obligation, which means that CVR would not need to blend biofuels into it or purchase renewable identification number (RIN) credits as it would if producing diesel. Shifting production from diesel to jet will reduce CVR's annual RINs requirements, Lamp says. At the same time, the opportunity to sell products to markets further west, where two major refineries are set to close, will continue to grow over the next few years, with jet being an important part of the mix, he says. Phillips 66 plans to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery by October, while independent Valero aims to close or repurpose its 145,000 b/d Benicia, California, refinery by April 2026. CVR has the capability to move products from the midcontinent to California but would need to weigh the potential benefits against the political, regulatory and cost environment in the state and, as a result, may favour other locations, it tells Argus . CVR at present produces jet at its 74,500 b/d Wynnewood, Oklahoma, refinery, shipping it primarily by truck or pipeline to midcontinent locations, but it can also move jet by rail. Another independent, Delek, has upgraded its 83,000 b/d El Dorado, Arkansas, refinery to produce jet as part of a plan to boost profitability. The company did not disclose how much jet the refinery can produce. The investments come after US refineries produced a record share of jet in 2024, reflecting higher demand relative to other transport fuels, according to the EIA. The EIA in its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that US jet demand will average 1.71mn b/d in 2025 and 1.73mn b/d in 2026, up from 1.7mn b/d last year. But US airlines are signalling an uncertain outlook for jet demand, with most withdrawing full-year 2025 financial guidance when reporting first-quarter earnings, as President Donald Trump's evolving tariff plans have made it difficult to predict how travel activity will develop. SAF conduct Refiners nevertheless appear bullish on aviation fuels, including renewables. Specialty refiner Calumet will expand sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) output at its Montana plant sooner than expected — reaching 120mn-150mn USG/yr by the second quarter of 2026, with plans to boost capacity to 300mn USG/yr by 2028. SAF margins have remained "stable and attractive", as the introduction of national mandates around the world compliment an already growing base of voluntary demand, chief executive Todd Borgmann says. US independent Par Pacific's planned $90mn renewable fuels facility at its 94,000 b/d Kapolei, Hawaii, refinery, is near completion. The project will produce SAF and other products, and is expected to start up in the second half of 2025. By Eunice Bridges US jet fuel demand Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Russia condemns US strikes, offers Iran support

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23/06/25

Russia condemns US strikes, offers Iran support

London, 23 June (Argus) — Russia has condemned US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities but said they will not affect Moscow's dialogue with Washington. "This is an absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran. It has no basis or justification," state news agency Tass quoted President Vladimir Putin as saying during a meeting in Moscow with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi. Earlier today, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also criticised the strikes and expressed "deep regret" over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. "There has been an increase in the number of participants in this conflict, a new round of escalation of tensions in the region. And of course, we condemn this and express deep regret in this regard," Peskov said, according to Tass. Despite the tensions, Peskov said the US strikes would not affect Russia's bilateral dialogue with Washington, describing the two processes as "independent". He also raised concerns about potential radiation risks from the attacks. "We need to find out what happened to these nuclear facilities and whether there is a radiation hazard," he said, while noting that the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, had reported no signs of contamination so far. Peskov said Russia is ready to support Iran, depending on Tehran's needs. "We have offered our mediation efforts. This is specific," he said. "Everything depends on what Iran needs." Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran vows payback after US strike on nuclear facilities

23/06/25

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23/06/25

Iran vows payback after US strike on nuclear facilities

Dubai, 23 June (Argus) — Iran said today that US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities have expanded the range of legitimate military targets for its armed forces, intensifying concerns over supply disruptions in a region that underpins global oil trade. Powerful and targeted operations with "serious consequences" await the US in response to its direct involvement in strikes on Iranian soil, according to Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters. "Mr. Trump, the gambler, you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it," Zolfaqari said. The US strikes on three heavily fortified nuclear facilities in Iran early on 22 June local time marked a clear shift, with Washington now openly joining Israel's military campaign against Tehran's nuclear programme, which Israel views as an existential threat. Israel and Iran have been trading airstrikes and missiles since 13 June. The US has thousands of troops stationed across the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. While Iran has threatened retaliation, it has so far held back from steps often floated by its leadership, such as striking US bases in the region or closing the strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway through which about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade flows. The US bombing and Iran's threats of retaliation caused crude futures to rise sharply in early trading on 23 June , with front-month Ice Brent climbing above $80/bl for the first time in five months, as the US bombing raised fears of wider escalation. But markets later pared gains. The August Ice Brent contract was trading at $76.56/bl as of 08:25 GMT, down by 45¢/bl from its 20 June settlement. Trump warned Iran against retaliating for the strikes and signalled he is open to regime change in Tehran. "If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" he said on Sunday, as Tehran continued to show defiance. He followed up by claiming the strikes had caused "monumental" damage to Iran's nuclear sites, adding that the "biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!" The full extent of the damage remains unverified. But "even if nuclear sites are destroyed, game isn't over, enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain", said top Iranian military and nuclear adviser, Ali Shamkhani. The UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said on 22 June that no increases in off-site radiation levels had been reported following the US strikes. Director general Rafael Grossi, in an address to the UN Security Council, confirmed that Fordow — Iran's main facility for enriching uranium to 60pc — was hit. He also said the Esfahan nuclear site and the Natanz enrichment facility were struck again. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s thermal coal imports edge higher in May

23/06/25

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23/06/25

India’s thermal coal imports edge higher in May

Singapore, 23 June (Argus) — India's thermal coal imports increased on the year in May, reversing an eight-month decline, lifted by pre-monsoon stocking activity and an anticipated seasonal increase in utility coal burn. India imported 18.65mn t of thermal coal in May, up by nearly 12pc from a year earlier and over 19pc higher from 15.65mn t in April, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Coal arrivals grew by double-digit percentages on the year across key origins, including Indonesia, South Africa and Russia. India's total imports over January-May stood at 72.6mn t, down by 4pc from 75.55mn t in the same period a year earlier, according to Interocean data. The surge in imports last month may also have been partly triggered by falling prices in key origins, including Indonesia. Indonesia's key GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal prices slumped to a four-year low in May, averaging $46.10/t fob Kalimantan basis Supramaxes. Prices remain under pressure on ample supplies and weak demand from key buyer China, hitting a fresh multi-year low of $39.40/t fob Kalimantan on 20 June. Indian demand for imported coal has broadly been capped this year because of abundant domestic supplies and an easing coal-fired generation. Indian coal producers' stocks stood at nearly 123mn t as of 31 May, up by 29pc from 95mn t a year earlier. Meanwhile, domestic output continues to edge higher. The country's total coal output stood at 168mn t over April-May, the first two months of the April 2025 to March 2026 fiscal year, growing by 3.4pc on the year. India's coal-fired generation, which meets most of its power requirements, was at 108.82TWh in May, down from 119.54TWh a year earlier and 113.48TWh in April, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show. The decline was partly the result of higher hydro and nuclear power generation. The country's coal-fired generation has continues to ease on the year so far in June, with output of 67.2TWh over 1-19 June, down from 72.95TWh a year earlier. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 60.46mn t as of 31 May, up from 47.9mn t a year earlier, according to CEA. Import mix Imports from Indonesia totalled 10.89mn t in May, up by almost 15pc from a year earlier and higher by over 25pc from April's 8.69mn t, Interocean data show. Indonesia remained the primary supplier of imported coal to India last month, accounting for over 58pc of total thermal coal imports. Imports from South Africa, a source preferred by coal-consuming industries like sponge iron, rose by over 71pc from a year earlier to 4.26mn t in May, and were also up from 3.2mn t in April. Thermal coal imports from the US stood at 1.89mn t, up marginally on the year but higher by over 37pc on the month. This high-calorific value coal is preferred by cement producers as a replacement to petroleum coke when coke prices are not competitive enough. Russia supplied 1.3mn t in May, up by 73pc on the year and higher by 36pc on the month. By Ajay Modi India thermal coal imports in May 2025 t Origin Quantity % ± m-o-m % ± y-o-y Indonesia 10,895,717 25.4 14.9 South Africa 4,263,725 33.1 71.4 US 1,887,696 37.4 0.2 Russia 1,309,999 36.2 72.9 Mozambique 76,671 na -87.3 Others 222,259 -69.7 -78.9 Total 18,656,067 19.2 11.7 Source: Interocean Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran raises Hormuz closure threat after US strikes

23/06/25

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23/06/25

Iran raises Hormuz closure threat after US strikes

Dubai, 23 June (Argus) — A senior Iranian lawmaker says parliament has concluded that the strait of Hormuz "should be closed" in response to US airstrikes on three nuclear sites early Sunday — a move that would severely disrupt global oil flows. Esmaeil Kowsari — a member of the national security and foreign policy commission, and a former high-ranking commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — told state-owned Press TV that lawmakers had reached a consensus that closure would be the appropriate response. Argus understands that while members of parliament were all in agreement, the issue was not formally put to a vote. Kowsari said the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security body. His comments have drawn global attention as markets await Iran's response to the strikes, which US president Donald Trump ordered against nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The Fordow site is heavily fortified and located underground. The Natanz facility had already been targeted by Israeli strikes, prompting a series of retaliatory missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel. Iranian officials, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had repeatedly warned Washington that any direct military action would trigger a response causing "irreparable" harm to the US. . Variety of options The strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit route, with around 17mn b/d of crude and refined products — roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade — passing through it. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in past confrontations but has never followed through. It has, however, previously targeted or seized vessels transiting the waterway, prompting some shipowners to consider alternative routes. Closure of the strait is one of several retaliatory options regularly floated by Iranian political and military leaders. Others include military strikes on US bases across the Mideast Gulf. The US maintains installations in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Asked whether closing the strait was under consideration, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi declined to confirm, saying only that "there are a variety of options available to us". Araqchi travelled to Moscow late on Sunday and is expected to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin on Monday. Moscow has condemned the US strikes. Ali Akbar Velayati, a long-time adviser to Khamenei, also issued a veiled threat to Washington, saying: "West Asia is not Greenland, and the strait of Hormuz is fundamentally different from the Panama Canal." The comment referenced earlier threats by Trump to assert US control over Greenland and the Panama Canal during the early days of his second term. US secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that any attempt by Iran to close the strait would be "a terrible mistake." "It's economic suicide for them if they do it, and we retain options to deal with that," he said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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