Latest market news

US shale investors worry over impact of output jump

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 09/03/22

US shale oil investors are concerned that quickly ramping up production to capture soaring crude prices could upset confidence in the steady growth business model that the industry spent years cultivating, investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt president Chad Michael said.

Shale oil producers have shifted their business models from "growth at all costs" to modest annual growth in the low- to mid-single digits with significant investor returns, Michael said today at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas. Early this year, it seemed US oil production would increase in 2022 by about 1mn b/d, including about 500,000-600,000 b/d from onshore short-cycle producers, he said.

"That is what companies feel like they have a license to do with investors," Michael said.

With crude rising well above $100/bl, there is a tension building around the question of whether to increase production at a faster pace, he said. That concerns investors, because the US shale business struggled to become an important, permanent part of global supply.

"If you too quickly try to take it from mid-single-digit growth to something much higher, are you going to end up really breaking the business model again and capital really ends up flowing out?" Michael said. "There is real concern about that."

Investors also question whether much higher output rates would even be sustainable, he said.

Meanwhile, investors' desire to invest in fossil fuel production has largely dried up as the energy transition shifts demand growth to low-carbon energy sources, private equity firm Carlyle Group managing director Bob Maguire said.

"There is an element of timing the market," he said.

But recent events have highlighted the need for conventional fuels during the energy transition. Oil company's role in managing the supply of fossil fuels is as "important an element of the energy transition as all the other stuff," Maguire said.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
18/07/24

Australia’s Santos delays FID on Dorado oil field

Australia’s Santos delays FID on Dorado oil field

Sydney, 18 July (Argus) — Australian independent Santos will now target a 2025 final investment decision (FID) on its 80pc-owned Dorado oil project in Western Australia (WA), after deferring it in 2022 and last year indicating a 2024 decision. Dorado's 10pc stakeholder Australian independent Carnarvon Energy said the joint venture (JV) will evaluate a lower capital expenditure (capex) option by reducing capacity below the previously guided 75,000-100,000 b/d and phasing development wells, targeting front-end engineering and design re-entry later in 2024 "once the JV secures the best option vessel or hull". Carnarvon said overall capex prior to the first oil from the offshore field will now be below its previous guidance of $2bn. Dorado JV's other shareholder is Taiwan's state-owned CPC with 10pc. Santos reported higher April-June oil and gas output than the previous quarter on 18 July, with production from the 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG (GLNG) in Queensland state up on a year earlier. It produced 22.2mn bl of oil equivalent (boe), up by 2pc from 21.8mn boe during January-March because of the return of WA's Devil Creek gas plant following a maintenance shutdown, as well as higher liquids production following cyclone-related disconnections during January-March. But output was 3pc below the year-earlier figure of 22.8mn boe. GLNG is on track to swap 18PJ (480mn m³) of gas into the domestic market over April-September 2024, Santos said, with the project maintaining its guidance of around 6mn t of LNG shipped for the year to 31 December. Production at the 6.9mn t/yr ExxonMobil-operated PNG LNG in Papua New Guinea (PNG) was down on January-March with natural decline at the Hides field, partially offset by high compression reliability from the Santos-operated Gobe and Kutubu fields. Finalisation of drilling and completion of operations activities at PNG LNG's Angore C1 and C2 wells has been achieved with both wells perforated for production. Angore project teams are now starting tie-in execution with production of 350mn ft³/d (10mn m³/d) expected during October-December. The $4.6bn Barossa backfill project in the Timor Sea is 77pc complete, Santos said, with pipeline testing completed in June and on track for its first gas in July-September 2025 within its cost guidance. Santos' 1.7mn t/yr Moomba carbon capture and storage project in South Australia is mechanically complete and on track to raise injection of Cooper basin gas plant carbon dioxide during July-December. Santos maintained its 2024 production guidance of 84mn-90mn boe and will release its half-year results on 21 August. By Tom Major Santos results Apr-Jun '24 Jan-Mar '24 Apr-Jun '23 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Volumes ('000 t) GLNG (100pc) 1,338 1,649 1,263 6 -19 Darwin LNG (100pc) 0 0 134 100 0 PNG LNG (100pc) 2,001 2,009 2,065 -3 0 Santos' equity share of LNG sales 1,264 1,352 1,333 -5 -7 Financial LNG sales revenue ($mn) 762 901 838 -9 -15 Total sales revenue ($mn) 1,313 1,398 1,336 -2 -6 LNG average realised price ($/mn Btu) 11 13 12 -4 -10 Oil price ($/bl) 89 89 83 7 0 Source: Santos Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

TotalEnergies agrees to sell stake in Nigeria SPDC JV


17/07/24
News
17/07/24

TotalEnergies agrees to sell stake in Nigeria SPDC JV

London, 17 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies has agreed to sell its 10pc stake in Nigeria's SPDC onshore oil and gas joint venture to Africa-focused independent Chappal Energies for $860mn. Other partners in the SPDC joint venture comprise operator Shell with a 30pc interest, state-owned NNPC with 55pc and Italy's Eni with 5pc. Shell agreed to sell its stake in the joint venture to a consortium of five companies for up to $2.4bn in January. That deal remains subject to a due diligence process by regulators. The joint venture's assets include around 50 producing oil and gas fields across 18 licences. TotalEnergies will transfer its 10pc interest and all its rights and obligations in 15 of the licences to Chappal. These licences mainly produce oil and netted TotalEnergies around 14,000 b/d of oil equivalent last year. The other three licences — OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77 — mainly produce gas and account for 40pc of supply to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) joint venture, in which TotalEnergies has a 15pc stake. TotalEnergies will also transfer its 10pc stake in these licences to Chappal but it will retain "full economic interest" in them, it said. The divestment "allows us to focus our onshore Nigeria presence solely on the integrated gas value chain and is designed to ensure the continuity of feed gas supply to Nigeria LNG in the future", said TotalEnergies' exploration and production president Nicolas Terraz. Chappal specialises in taking over and operating mature fields. It agreed a deal in November last year to acquire Norwegian firm Equinor's stake in Nigeria's OML 128 block, a transaction that was finally approved earlier this month . The company said last month that it is contemplating issuing a bond to raise up to $450mn to help it finance acquisitions. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

China’s CNOOC gets record gas results from Bohai well


17/07/24
News
17/07/24

China’s CNOOC gets record gas results from Bohai well

Singapore, 17 July (Argus) — Chinese state-controlled oil firm CNOOC has achieved what it described as record gas production results from a test well at its Longkou 7-1 (LK7-1) oil and gas field in the eastern region of China's Bohai Sea. The LK7-1-1 exploration well could produce almost 1mn m³/d of natural gas and about 210m³/d (1,320 b/d) of crude oil, the company said on 15 July. The former set a record for natural gas tested productivity in the Bohai Sea, according to CNOOC. China produced 123.6bn m³ of natural gas in January-June, up by 6pc from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). The country produced 4.15mn b/d of crude in 2023, NBS data showed. The potential output adds to CNOOC's reserves and production in the Bohai Sea, which stood at 1.97mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) and 599,847 boe/d as of the end of 2023, according to CNOOC. The region represents 29pc of the company's total reserves and approximately 32pc of its production. CNOOC, along with other state-controlled firms like PetroChina and Sinopec, dominates China's domestic oil and gas production. CNOOC has also separately started production at an oilfield offshore China. The Wushi 23-5 oilfield development project — located in the Beibu Gulf of the South China Sea — is expected to produce light crude, and achieve peak production of 18,100 boe/d in 2026. "The project will realise full-process recovery and utilisation of the associated gas through integrated natural gas treatment," the company said on 1 July. CNOOC in November 2023 started production at its Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field in the Bohai bay. The gas field is currently producing an estimated 37,500 boe/d, exceeding an initial expectation of peak production of about 37,000 boe/d, the company said on 11 July. CNOOC in March 2023 discovered the Bozhong 26-6 field with over 100mn t of oil equivalent reserves, also in the Bohai Sea. By Joey Chan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med


16/07/24
News
16/07/24

Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med

London, 16 July (Argus) — The owner of a tanker reported attacked today in the Mediterranean Sea has said there was no such incident. Petronav Ship Management said its tanker, Olvia , was not targeted as claimed by Yemen's Houthi militants. An attack in the Mediterranean would be a big step outside the Houthi's region of operations, which is limited to the area in and around the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Houthis claimed two other attacks today in the Red Sea, on crude tanker Chios Lion and oil product tanker Bentley I . By Ben Winkley and Bob Wigin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

New Libyan firm starts exporting crude


16/07/24
News
16/07/24

New Libyan firm starts exporting crude

London, 16 July (Argus) — A little known Libyan upstream company has begun exporting crude with its first shipment heading to China, according to sources, official documents and ship-tracking data seen by Argus . Arkenu Oil Company, which describes itself as a private oil and gas development and production firm, exported 1mn bl of Sarir/Mesla blend crude from Libya's Marsa El Hariga oil terminal on 10 July on Suezmax-class tanker Zeus . Shipping agent and port reports list Chinese trading firm Unipec as the vessel's charterer. The tanker's bill of lading lists Libyan state-owned NOC as the sender of the consignment on behalf of Arkenu. Libyan crude sales have historically been the reserve of NOC and a handful of international oil companies that hold equity stakes in production assets in the country, including Italy's Eni, TotalEnergies and Austria's OMV. Turkey-based commodities trader BGN, which does not have any upstream production in Libya, also regularly appears on loading programmes as a seller of the country's crude. A document dated 10 July showed NOC had allocated to Arkenu an unspecified share of production from its subsidiary Agoco's Sarir and Mesla fields, in return for carrying out upstream development work on the fields. The arrangement implies Agoco is paying for Arkenu's services in the form of crude. Arkenu's 1mn bl cargo is worth around $84mn at current market rates, Argus estimates. Arkenu, set up in early 2023 in the eastern city of Benghazi, says it owns modern drilling rigs and has a team of experts "who have held high positions in major oil production and development companies". It is unclear what work Arkenu has carried out for Agoco. Sarir and Mesla accounted for most of Agoco's 279,000 b/d of output in 2023. Libya is politically divided between an internationally recognised administration in the west, which has historically controlled oil revenues, and a rival administration in the east, which is home to around three-quarters of the country's oil production capacity. Agoco is based in the east, and NOC in the west. Libya produces just over 1.2mn b/d of crude. Its oil export revenues were $30.7bn in 2023, according to Opec. Arkenu, NOC and Unipec have been contacted for comment. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more