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Latest market news

USDA corta estimativa da soja; milho sobe

  • Market: Agriculture
  • 08/04/22

O Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA, na sigla em inglês) reduziu pelo quarto mês consecutivo a estimativa para a produção da soja 2021-22 do Brasil, mas aumentou a projeção da atual safra de milho.

A previsão é que a safra de soja brasileira atinja 125 milhões de t, queda de 2 milhões de t em relação ao relatório anterior publicado em março.

Abril é o quarto mês consecutivo com cortes nas estimativas de produção do USDA. O relatório de janeiro foi o primeiro a conter mudanças desde maio de 2021, quando a projeção para a safra da oleaginosa de 2021-22 estava em 144 milhões de t.

As estimativas de exportação também caíram este mês, de 85,5 milhões de t para 82,75 milhões de t, enquanto as previsões para estoques iniciais e finais subiram. O volume esperado para os estoques iniciais da soja 2021-22 cresceu 1,45 milhão de t, alcançando 29,4 milhões de t. Os estoques finais agora estão estimados em 21,6 milhões de t, ante 21 milhões de t no mês passado. Já as projeções para consumo doméstico aumentaram de 48,9 milhões de t para 50,5 milhões de t.

A redução nas estimativas da soja é uma consequência direta do tempo seco que reduziu a produtividade das lavouras nos estados da região Sul durante os meses de dezembro e janeiro.

A produção estimada da safra de milho de 2021-22 subiu para 116 milhões de t, alta de 2 milhões de t no mês. O volume esperado para exportações subiu 1,5 milhão de t e alcançou 44,5 milhões de t. As projeções para estoques iniciais e finais cresceram 800.000 t, para 4,65 milhões de t e 5,15 milhões de t, respectivamente.

O plantio da segunda safra de milho da atual temporada dentro da janela ideal e condições climáticas favoráveis são os principais motivos por trás da alta nos volumes esperados para a safra do grão.

Por Nathalia Giannetti

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10/06/26

TMO wheat prices to turn Turkish buyers to imports

TMO wheat prices to turn Turkish buyers to imports

London, 10 June (Argus) — Wheat buyers in Turkey are likely to turn to wheat imports — despite an ample domestic harvest this year — with the country's grain importer TMO's sales price for milling wheat, although the difference between domestic and import markets is likely to push up the import licence value. TMO has set the price for its sales of the country's domestic crop at 18,500 Turkish lira/t ($401/t) on 1 June, which would come into effect from October. The firm has planned to buy domestic wheat from farmers at TL16,500/t. A comparable cif price for wheat imports based on the domestic sales price would be about $317/t at discharge ports, based on the sales price, an inward processing regime (IPR) licence fee at about $65/t and unloading costs at ports. The import price ceiling is much higher than wheat prices in international markets at present, which is likely to draw Turkish buyers to wheat imports. Russian new-crop wheat was, for example, offered at $256/t cif Mersin this week for shipment in August. That said, the gap between the import and domestic markets would encourage importers to bid for rights and capacity to import wheat into the country with no import tax, pushing up market values for the IPR licence. The licence could become more valuable than the equivalent of $65/t between now and October, shrinking at least in part the import margin, market participants said. TMO could also introduce an import ban to prioritise distribution and consumption of domestic wheat. Market participants have waited for an import ban since early May. But an outright import ban is likely to damage the country's flour export market. Egyptian flour exporters took shares of key export markets such as Syria away from Turkey when TMO last banned wheat imports in 2024, according to market participants. Turkish farmers could produce 20.5mn t of wheat in 2026-27 (June-May), up from 16.5mn t in 2025-26, according to Argus estimates. The country is therefore expected to require less wheat imports in 2026-27 at 4mn t, down from 7.3mn t in 2025-26. Russia supplied 5.2mn t of Turkey's total wheat imports at 5.7mn t in June 2025-April 2026, customs data show. By Erik Metaliaj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Egyptian buyers return to wheat market after holiday

05/06/26
News
05/06/26

Egyptian buyers return to wheat market after holiday

London, 5 June (Argus) — Egyptian buyers have shown an interest in 11.5pc and 12.5pc protein milling wheat on a cif basis to Mediterranean ports after a quiet May. More buyers could follow, with new crops in the Black Sea hitting the market. Importers in Egypt booked multiple cargoes of Russian 12.5pc protein wheat for June and July delivery this week, marking a return to buying after large April arrivals left the country with ample stocks in May. Demand also emerged for Ukrainian 11.5pc protein wheat this week, with bids in line with 12.5pc wheat because of stronger demand for the grade around holiday periods, market participants said. The Argus cif Egypt Mediterranean ports price for 12.5pc protein content wheat rose to $259.50/t on 3-4 June, up from $256.50/t a week earlier. Some buyers may still be waiting until the Black Sea harvest reaches ports, expecting more pressure on prices. Market participants anticipate further demand in the coming weeks for new-crop wheat loading in late July and August. Sellers have cut their offers for 12.5pc protein wheat on a fob basis for loading in August, compared with offers for July. Harvest delays in the Black Sea could push new-crop arrivals back to late July and August . Buyers could also be encouraged by a stronger Egyptian pound, which recovered to $1:E£51.87 on 4 June from as low as $1:E£54.75 on 7 April. The exchange rate was $1:E£47.97 at the end of February. The weaker pound in April and May had made imported wheat less competitive against previously imported wheat in the ex-warehouse market. Buyers cut their bids in April under pressure and focused on buying from domestic warehouse purchases in May. Buyers could secure wheat in the domestic market at prices equivalent to $252-253/t cif in May, according to market participants. Argus estimates Egypt will import 13.2mn t of wheat in July 2025-June 2026, roughly in line with 13.3mn t a year earlier. The country had imported 7.8mn t by February, customs data show. Argus forecasts Egypt's wheat imports at 12.5mn t for 2026-27, but market participants expect volumes above 13mn t on strong demand, partially because of support from the country's growing flour export sector . By Erik Metaliaj Egyptian wheat imports, 2020-27 mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Romania crop tour: Another 2-4 weeks to prove potential

05/06/26
News
05/06/26

Romania crop tour: Another 2-4 weeks to prove potential

Bucharest, 5 June (Argus) — Producers in the southeastern-most corner of Romania, closest to the port of Constanta, expect wheat and barley yields considerably above last year's record, but the harvest is well behind schedule compared with previous years, which leaves crops vulnerable to damage. Ialomita, Calarasi and Constanta together account for 20pc of Romania's wheat production. Constanta — the largest producing zone of the three — is expecting the greatest increase in yields for both wheat and barley. The eastern part of Romania has struggled less with drought than the west of the country this year, reversing the typical comparison whereby eastern Romania suffers far more from droughts. Producers close to Constanta applied the usual treatments against crop disease, given a particularly high risk this year because the wet weather and snow caused some flooding after the winter. But some still reported fungal disease in the wheat head, even if the leaves were well protected. Fields were also visibly more affected by weeds in the east, as some producers skipped on weedkiller. This year's rapeseed crop was in generally good condition. The very late planting this year — some had to wait until the last week of October for rain to ease and allow fieldwork, compared with planting in late August in western Romania — has largely been offset by better conditions since. But producers are sceptical that Romania's rapeseed crop will surpass last year's record. Late harvest raises questions Farmers across the country this week have said their main worry is that crops — otherwise in excellent condition — are behind the usual schedule and still have to weather at least another 2-4 weeks out in the fields. The country was on alert for severe rain and storm, which finally broke on the evening of 4 June as the Argus team crossed out of Ialomita and back into Bucharest. Excess rain or hail could prove very damaging to quality at this point and cause further delays to the harvest. The push for high yields this year could also mean a lower-protein wheat crop, particularly if weather turns challenging in the very final stage before harvest. Some farmers have chosen to sow varieties that prioritise yield over quality this year, given the small difference in price between feed and milling grade — typically traded locally in relation to 12pc protein wheat, for exporters to blend into other grades later — on the domestic market, farmers told Argus . Protein content is notoriously hard to gauge while the crop is still in the ground. Deteriorating farmer finances could accelerate the shift to pushing for sheer volume over quality, but also mean that farmers plant less wheat for next year, as most head into the new season with little fertilizer for autumn sowing and a sharp increase in input costs as a result of disruption to nitrogen supply in the Middle East. A delay to the crop extending right across the country to Constanta raises the question of when exactly Romania's potentially record crop could hit the export market. Producers have started new-crop sales, spurred on by a sharp drop in the Romanian lei against the euro since political developments in May. But farmers are increasingly unwilling to sell on a cpt or dap Constanta basis rather than ex-farm because transportation costs have become volatile with the recent rise in diesel prices. That said, more exporters at Constanta are buying directly from farms, rather than local trading firms, which have struggled to survive financially in the past two years. This has led to the domestic market trading increasingly on a spot basis. By Alexandre Willekens and Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976

04/06/26
News
04/06/26

US finds first screwworm livestock case since 1976

Minneapolis, 4 June (Argus) — The New World screwworm (NWS) has been found in a Texas calf, marking the first US detection of the pest that damages livestock herds in decades, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. The pest was detected in a three-week old calf in La Pryor, Texas, around 100 miles from the Mexican border. NWS larvae burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing "serious damage to livestock and economic losses", the USDA said. NWS-infected animals can be returned to the herd after treatment, but some may be euthanized if treatment is not possible. NWS infections do not lead to culling like bird flu cases. NWS can reduce calf births and cut milk output, which affects both beef and dairy production. The US cattle herd totaled 86.2mn head as of the start of 2026, the lowest level since 1951, USDA data said. Ranchers will need to monitor herds closely for open wounds, where the parasite often enters, adding to the time and labor costs of raising cattle. "USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico," USDA undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs Dudley Hoskins said. "The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again." The USDA will implement its NWS response plan, which includes a20km (12.4 mile) radiusquarantine zone around the detection, increased releases of sterile NWS flies, trapping of NWS flies at the Mexican border, and wildlife surveillance. Texas agriculture commissioner Sid Miller asked President Donald Trump to "declare New World screwworm a national agricultural emergency and marshal every available federal resource toward eradication". NWS was last detected in US livestock in 1976, also in Texas, USDA said. It was also found in wildlife and domestic animals in the Florida Keys in 2016 but was eradicated before infecting livestock. Fatality rates for untreated livestock are close to 100pc, but they fall dramatically with early detection and treatment, USDA said. By Alexander Schultz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's Mato Grosso cuts 2025-26 corn exports outlook

01/06/26
News
01/06/26

Brazil's Mato Grosso cuts 2025-26 corn exports outlook

Sao Paulo, 1 June (Argus) — Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state decreased its estimates for the 2025-26 corn crop exports due to higher domestic demand. Mato Grosso's 2025-26 corn exports outlook decreased by nearly 11pc in the month to 23.1mn metric tonnes (t), according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. That is a 4.5pc drop from 2024-25 shipments. Total corn demand outlook rose to 54.35mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous month, driven by the expansion of internal demand to cover needs from the animal feed and corn ethanol industries. That is almost in line with last season's 54.33mn t estimated demand. Imea estimates the state's demand at 22.1mn t, 6pc above last month's forecast and up by 12pc from the previous cycle. Interstate demand increased by 22pc to 9.2mn t from May. But that is approximately 11.6pc lower than in the 2024-25 cycle. Beginning stocks for the 2025-26 season fell to 1.6mn t from the 2.2mn last month. Final stocks also dropped to 620,000t in June from 750,000t in May. Imea readjusted figures for the 2024-25 crop this month. Total demand rose to 54.3mn t, a 1pc increase from the previous estimate boosted by regional demand. Mato Grosso's demand is now estimated at 19.8mn t, up by 4.6pc from last month's forecast and by 21pc from the previous cycle. Interstate demand also rose to 10.4mn t from 9.8mn t in May. That is up by 28pc from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the animal feed and corn ethanol industries and more competitive inland prices for the grain. Cotton Imea's estimates for Mato Grosso's total 2025-26 cotton demand increased by 1.6pc to 2.7mn t, a 0.05pc dip from the 2024-25 season. Exports for 2025-26 are estimated at almost 2.1mn t, up by 50,540t on the month and by 0.4pc from the total shipped in the 2024-25 cycle. Mato Grosso's cotton demand projection was revised downwards by 5,900t to 40,320t. Still, that is a 5.2pc increase on the year. Imea estimates interstate demand at almost 606,430t, 1.8pc below the previous season's. The forecast for final stocks decreased by 8.4pc on the month to 698,596t, down by around 18.5pc from the 2024-25 cycle. The outlook for the 2024-25 crop's interstate demand was stable at 617,545t, 5.8pc above the 2023-24 season. But Mato Grosso's demand estimate decreased by 7.4pc on the month to 38,320t, up by nearly 39pc from the previous cycle. Exports are expected to reach almost 2.1mn t, up by around 13.5pc from the 2023-24 cycle. Soybeans Imea kept its supply and demand outlook for the 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean crops stable from May's outlook. Imea forecasts interstate demand at 5.2mn t for the 2026-27 season, stable from the previous estimate and down by 8.3pc from the 2025-26 crop. The exports forecast remains at 30.5mn t, down by 5pc from the previous season. Mato Grosso's consumption estimates were stable at 13.7mn t, up by 1.9pc from last season, supported by higher crushing capacity in the state amid increased demand for biofuels and soybean meal consumption. The forecast for final stocks remains at 140,000t, 78.5pc below the 2025-26 crop as supply is restricted. Total demand for the 2025-26 crop is still estimated at 51.2mn. This is up by 1pc from the 2024-25 season. Interstate demand remains estimated at 13.4mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous cycle. By Bruno Castro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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