Producers in the southeastern-most corner of Romania, closest to the port of Constanta, expect wheat and barley yields considerably above last year's record, but the harvest is well behind schedule compared with previous years, which leaves crops vulnerable to damage.
Ialomita, Calarasi and Constanta together account for 20pc of Romania's wheat production. Constanta — the largest producing zone of the three — is expecting the greatest increase in yields for both wheat and barley.
The eastern part of Romania has struggled less with drought than the west of the country this year, reversing the typical comparison whereby eastern Romania suffers far more from droughts. Producers close to Constanta applied the usual treatments against crop disease, given a particularly high risk this year because the wet weather and snow caused some flooding after the winter. But some still reported fungal disease in the wheat head, even if the leaves were well protected. Fields were also visibly more affected by weeds in the east, as some producers skipped on weedkiller.
This year's rapeseed crop was in generally good condition. The very late planting this year — some had to wait until the last week of October for rain to ease and allow fieldwork, compared with planting in late August in western Romania — has largely been offset by better conditions since. But producers are sceptical that Romania's rapeseed crop will surpass last year's record.
Late harvest raises questions
Farmers across the country this week have said their main worry is that crops — otherwise in excellent condition — are behind the usual schedule and still have to weather at least another 2-4 weeks out in the fields.
The country was on alert for severe rain and storm, which finally broke on the evening of 4 June as the Argus team crossed out of Ialomita and back into Bucharest. Excess rain or hail could prove very damaging to quality at this point and cause further delays to the harvest.
The push for high yields this year could also mean a lower-protein wheat crop, particularly if weather turns challenging in the very final stage before harvest. Some farmers have chosen to sow varieties that prioritise yield over quality this year, given the small difference in price between feed and milling grade — typically traded locally in relation to 12pc protein wheat, for exporters to blend into other grades later — on the domestic market, farmers told Argus. Protein content is notoriously hard to gauge while the crop is still in the ground.
Deteriorating farmer finances could accelerate the shift to pushing for sheer volume over quality, but also mean that farmers plant less wheat for next year, as most head into the new season with little fertilizer for autumn sowing and a sharp increase in input costs as a result of disruption to nitrogen supply in the Middle East.
A delay to the crop extending right across the country to Constanta raises the question of when exactly Romania's potentially record crop could hit the export market. Producers have started new-crop sales, spurred on by a sharp drop in the Romanian lei against the euro since political developments in May.
But farmers are increasingly unwilling to sell on a cpt or dap Constanta basis rather than ex-farm because transportation costs have become volatile with the recent rise in diesel prices. That said, more exporters at Constanta are buying directly from farms, rather than local trading firms, which have struggled to survive financially in the past two years. This has led to the domestic market trading increasingly on a spot basis.
