Brazil is set to harvest a wheat crop compatible with domestic grain consumption within five years as farmer interest grows and new varieties adapted to the tropical climate lead to better yields.
The country's wheat output has been growing, especially over the past three years, rising from 5.2mn metric tonnes (t) in 2019-20 to an expected 9mn t in the 2021-22 crop, which has begun harvesting, according to the national supply company (Conab). The pace of growth is expected to accelerate, as higher international prices stimulate increased production in traditional wheat areas, such as Brazil's south region. But there is also increasing interest in wheat in the cerrado region — a savanna-like area with a tropical climate — where farmers are relying on more adapted seed varieties developed by the Brazilian agricultural research state company (Embrapa).
Embrapa researchers initially said that Brazil would achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production within 10 years, considering the cultivation advance in the cerrado. But the president of the country's wheat industry association (Abitrigo), Rubens Barbosa, said during a fertilizer industry meeting in August that the country should produce about 12-13mn t within five years, which represents current domestic consumption.
Exports are also forecast to increase, so Brazil is likely to continue importing the grain and volumes will depend on prices and market conditions, he says.
Brazil's three southern states — Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana — account for 90pc of the country's planted area, with 2.7mn hectares (ha), and 91.3pc of production. Together, they can harvest 8.4mn t this season. Even so, wheat production still occupies a small part of the areas where soy is grown in the summer, which guarantees a potential expansion for wheat between 5mn-7mn ha in the south region — which has a subtropical climate, traditionally adapted to wheat cultivation — Embrapa estimates.
New frontier
In recent decades, the cerrado biome in Brazil's central-west became one of the country's largest grain-producing regions.
Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and the central-west region is home to most of the country's oilseed crop. A leap in second-crop cultivation has also more than tripled the area's corn production in the last 20 years, from 47mn t to 115mn t.
Only 5pc of the potential area for wheat production in the cerrado is cultivated with the grain. It is estimated that just over 200,000 ha of the expected 4mn ha potential has been planted. The crops are in the Minas Gerais, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia states, as well as the country's federal district.
From this potential 4mn ha, 1.5mn ha refer to irrigated wheat, which offers higher yields, while the other 2.5mn ha have a favorable climate for rainfed planting, Embrapa researcher Julio Albrecht told Argus. The irrigated wheat cultivar BR 264, developed by Embrapa and used in 70pc of the area planted in the cerrado, set a world yield record in 2021, he says. It harvested 9,630kg/ha, which is equivalent to 80.9kg/ha per day, in a rural property in Cristalina, in Goias. The calculation takes into account the 119-day irrigated wheat cycle in Brazil. As a comparison, New Zealand wheat is planted in a tropical climate, but the cycle takes 317 days, which amounts to an average productivity of 54.8kg/ha/day, considering an average yield of 289.9kg/ha for the total harvest.
Some states — like Ceara, Piaui and Maranhao, in Brazil's northeast, and Roraima, a northern state that borders Venezuela — still do not appear in Conab's wheat statistics, because their production is in early stages, but there is a growing interest in the crop.
In Balsas, in Maranhao state, producer Antidio Sandri was one of the pioneers in planting wheat, sowing 130 ha in 2021. He told Argus that, in the first year of planting, he was still adjusting the amount of irrigation necessary for the crop and had average yields of 2,000 kg/ha. This year, he hopes to achieve up to 4,000kg/ha. The first harvested crop was sold in advance to a mill in Ceara. Sandri noticed that other farmers are interested in the region, so this year he is betting on wheat seed production, planting 30 ha with greater use of technology.
Entrepreneurs and farmers are enthusiastic about increasing wheat production in the cerrado, but they know that there are still many hurdles such as seed availability and the lack of specific agricultural credit funding for the crop in non-traditional regions. In any case, many believe that wheat could be "the new corn" in Brazil, if it becomes an option for other crops' off-season, in addition to the growing interest in irrigated cultivation.
