Discovery and development of South Africa's oil and gas resources will not lower fuel prices there, according to the country's industry association Sapia.
This is because private firms and not the government are investing in the recent offshore discoveries, said Sapia executive director Avhapfani Tshifularo.
"Public representatives talk to us as South Africans as if they have control over what happens in the world oil market. They don't have control," he said. Countries with oil and gas resources will sell these at market price and then use some of the revenue to subsidise fuel, Tshifularo said.
"To have leverage, you have to hold the feedstock," he said. "Then you can channel at least part of the revenue into subsidies."
But the South African government does not subsidise petroleum products and if it were to do this that would require a change in policy, Tshifularo said.
"So in simple terms, having oil and gas discoveries is not going to lower retail fuel prices in South Africa," he said.
Earlier this year, the government implemented a temporary reduction in its general fuel levy, to ease record high prices. This short-term reprieve came to an end on 2 August. The price of 95 octane grade gasoline sold inland has decreased from its high of nearly 27 rand/l ($1.47/l) in July to just over R22/l this month.
Government taxes represent nearly 30pc of the South African pump price, but Pretoria has dismissed the idea that any should be permanently lowered or removed.
South Africa's offshore jurisdiction potentially holds up to 59 trillion ft³ of natural gas and 27bn bl of oil, the Petroleum Agency of South Africa (Pasa) estimates. Just half of these prospective barrels could fully meet the country's demand of 700,000 b/d, it says.
Among these are TotalEnergies's Brulpadda and Luiperd prospects in block 11B/12B off South Africa's south coast, which hold proven resources of 3.4 trillion ft³.
But legal battles and local opposition have stymied attempts to develop the nascent offshore exploration sector. South Africa's high court in September revoked Shell's right to explore for oil and gas along the country's Wild Coast on the basis that the permit was granted unlawfully. A court has also placed an interim ban on Australian firm Searcher's seismic survey of a number of Orange Basin oil and gas concessions along South Africa's west and southwest coasts.
TotalEnergies and Shell made two major oil discoveries earlier this year in the Namibian part of the Orange Basin, at the Venus-1 and Graff-1 wells, respectively. Most of the basin is located offshore South Africa.
