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Activist investors face uphill battle at US majors

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 27/03/23

The US majors are on the front foot entering this year's shareholder proxy season, emboldened by record profits and a growing conviction that fossil fuel demand is not going away any time soon.

This may mean climate-minded shareholders who saw their 2021 proxy season successes — including the ouster of one-quarter of the ExxonMobil board — fade in 2022 will have an even harder time gaining ground. Support for environmental proposals waned last year as concerns around energy security trumped climate change following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sent oil prices spiralling and sparked a full-blown energy crisis in Europe.

This time around, the oil industry has regained its feel-good factor and is unashamedly investing in upstream production growth after highlighting the risks of an energy transition push that tries to abandon oil and gas before clean energy investments and policy ensure a corresponding shift in demand. The US majors will still be confronted with climate-related shareholder proposals at annual general meetings. Follow This, a Dutch activist group, is calling on ExxonMobil and Chevron to set medium-term reduction targets for Scope 3 end-use emissions — which account for the vast majority of their carbon footprint. Shareholder advocate As You Sow is pressing both to recalculate baselines to strip out emissions associated with divestments since 2016, to give a more accurate picture.

Climate activists counter that the crisis is only getting worse, as reflected in a UN IPCC climate report last week, and shareholder campaigns could see renewed support this year. "I don't think the energy security narrative is going to dampen that interest," think-tank Carbon Tracker's North American executive director Rob Schuwerk says. In any case, the "long-term trend in terms of energy security is to have localised supply and that's going to favour renewables".

But as a growing backlash against investing along environmental, social and governance guidelines in some Republican states gathers momentum, climate campaigners may have their work cut out. Larry Fink, chief executive of Blackrock, the world's biggest asset manager, wrote in his recent annual letter to shareholders that it is not the job of firms like his to be the "environmental police", in a shift in tone from recent years.

Transition balance

Both ExxonMobil and Chevron plan to ramp up spending on low-carbon initiatives in coming years, and have welcomed incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, although they still lag their European rivals. Yet at industry gathering the S&P Global CERAWeek conference in Houston this month, executives talked about the need for more balance when it comes to the energy transition. "The issue of how we best move toward a lower-carbon energy system is one that is getting reframed as we get some real experience with the challenges of pushing some of these new technologies forward," Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said. "The reality is that affordability and energy security actually do matter."

Although tracking Scope 3 emissions may make sense for measuring global progress on combating climate change, there are "significant downsides" to applying such targets at the company level, according to ExxonMobil's chief executive Darren Woods. "We are growing our LNG business," Woods said. "Every tonne of LNG we produce backs out coal somewhere in the world."

There is now a broad consensus that oil and gas will be required for decades to come, while lower-carbon sources take time to ramp up, bank HSBC Global Research analysts say. "This means oil majors cannot afford to step off the upstream oil and gas ‘treadmill' too soon," they wrote in a recent note.


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18/02/25

Nigeria cuts oil theft, upbeat on output growth plan

Nigeria cuts oil theft, upbeat on output growth plan

Lagos, 18 February (Argus) — Nigeria's upstream regulator NUPRC said losses from oil theft have fallen to just 5,000 b/d, down from 15,000 b/d in August of last year. At its peak in 2018, theft was costing Nigeria as much as 150,000 b/d, according to the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. Sustained security interventions by the government have been successful in tackling the problem, said NUPRC chief executive Gbenga Komolafe. "Oil theft has significantly reduced to 5,000 b/d, leading to a steady [liquids] production increase to 1.7mn b/d," he added. State-owned oil firm NNPC said security measures have led to around 1,861 illegal connections being removed from pipelines, while 677 points of vandalism were found and fixed over the past 12 months. About 4,124 illegal refineries and 1,897 boats laden with stolen crude were also destroyed within the same period, NNPC said. NUPRC said last year that a forensic study showed 40pc of losses previously attributed to theft in 2020–22 were caused by metering inaccuracies. In July last year, the regulator launched an audit of Nigeria's 187 upstream flow stations to determine where meters are outdated or broken and which designated measurement points lack the required equipment. The audit was to have been completed by November 2024 but an NUPRC source told Argus that it is only being completed now. Komolafe also said a programme that aims to add 1.07mn b/d to Nigeria's liquids output by December 2026 is on track. The ambitious initiative aims to leverage "collaboration among operators, service providers, financiers and host communities", Komolafe said. The programme forecasts an injection of $1.45bn of capital into Nigerian oil blocks under joint venture agreements, $1.11bn into blocks under production-sharing contracts and $650mn into blocks under sole risk contracts. This investment will respectively yield additional output of 470,800 b/d, 224,700 b/d and 374,500 b/d, according to NUPRC. Nigeria has struggled with mobilising upstream investment in the past and has consistenly fallen short of less ambitious production growth targets in recent years. But an NUPRC source told Argus that easy wins are possible under the latest output growth programme, including 42,800 b/d from restarting shut-in wells, 74,900 b/d from the ramp-up of fields recently brought online, 96,300 b/d from drilling new wells and 256,800 b/d from well re-entry. The chief executive of local operator Heirs Energies, Osayande Igiehon, said his company restarted 40 shut-in wells in oil block OML 17, which the company operates with a 45pc stake in a joint venture with NNPC, between the third quarter of last year and 11 February this year. Production has risen to 55,000 b/d, up from 35,000 b/d in January of last year, he said. Nigeria has "the infrastructure in place to deliver up to 2mn b/d, more than 2mn b/d, but a lot of it is shut in, is closed in or is poorly worked," Igiehon said. "Beyond 2mn b/d, we need to do a lot of greenfield investments onshore, in shallow water and in the deep water, investments that will take a longer gestation period," he said. NUPRC data show Nigeria's liquids production rose by 4pc on the month to 1.74mn b/d in January, of which 1.54mn b/d was crude, leaving the country 2.6pc above its Opec+ quota. Argus estimates put Nigeria's January crude production lower, at 1.51mn b/d . Nigeria's junior oil minister Heineken Lokpobiri said the government expects a significant portion of the country's targeted oil output growth will be condensate. The government is considering infrastructure interventions to reduce the co-mingling of crude and condensate, further separation of condensate streams from crude streams in transportation and storage, and to increase marketing of Nigerian output as condensate. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan approves new energy mix target, climate plans


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

Japan approves new energy mix target, climate plans

Tokyo, 18 February (Argus) — Japan has approved its targeted power mix portfolio for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, as well as its new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goal, it announced today. The new power mix goal, the centrepiece of the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), is in line with Japan's aim to reduce GHG emissions by 73pc by 2040-41 compared to 2013-14 levels. Tokyo plans to submit the 2040-41 emission target, as well as a 60pc emissions reduction goal for 2035-36, to the UN climate body the UNFCCC on 18 February as the country's nationally determined contribution (NDC). The country has not made major changes to its draft proposal that it unveiled in December. The new SEP sees renewable energy making up 40-50pc of the country's power generation in 2040-41, up from 22.9pc in 2023-24. The share of thermal power will fall to around 30-40pc from 68.6pc, while that of nuclear will increase to around 20pc from 8.5pc during the same period. The 2040-41 target is based on Japanese power demand of 1,100-1,200 TWh, which is higher by 12-22pc from 2023-24. The government has planned the power portfolio so that it is not heavily dependent on one specific power source or fuel type, the country's minister for trade and industry (Meti) Yoji Muto said on 18 February, although the new plan suggests making maximum use of low-carbon power supply sources. Public consultation over 27 December-26 January revealed that some think Japan should slow or even stop the decarbonisation process, given the US government's reversal of its climate policies, including its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, said Meti. But global commitment to decarbonisation will remain unchanged, said Muto, adding that Japan will lose its industrial competitiveness if the country delays green transformation efforts. But US president Donald Trump's "drill, baby, drill" policy has prompted the Japanese government to delete a segment from the draft SEP that had initially proposed bilateral co-operation through Tokyo's green transformation strategy and the US' Inflation Reduction Act. Despite Tokyo's decarbonisation goals, the new SEP assumes that fossil fuels, including natural gas, oil and coal, will still account for over 50pc of primary energy demand in 2040-41 in all of its scenarios — although this is down from 93pc in 2013-14 and 83pc in 2022-23. The scenarios vary based on the degree of uptake of renewables, hydrogen and its derivatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, to fulfil the 73pc emission reduction goal by 2040-41. Worst-case scenario Tokyo also has also set out a potential worst-case scenario, assuming slower development of clean technologies, in which fossil fuels would still account for 67pc of primary energy supply in 2040-41. Under this scenario, which assumes Japan will only reduce its GHG emissions by around 61pc by 2040-41, natural gas is estimated to account for about 26pc, or 74mn t, of Japan's primary energy supply, which is higher than the 53mn-61mn t in the base scenarios that are formulated in accordance to the 73pc emissions reduction target. Japan would need to address the potential 21mn t gap in gas demand, which will mostly be met by LNG imports, in 2040-41, depending on the development of clean technologies. The gap is equivalent to 32pc of the country's LNG imports of 65.9mn t in 2024. When asked by Argus whether the government will continue to try securing LNG to ensure energy supply security when considering the worst-case scenario, a Meti official said Tokyo should continue pursuing its 73pc GHG reduction target, but it is necessary to consider the potential risks for each individual policy and the measures that need to be taken, instead of making decisions based on the worst-case scenario. The new SEP has highlighted the role of LNG in the country's energy transition and the necessity to secure long-term supplies of the fuel. It is unclear what ratio gas-fired capacity will account for in Japan's 2040-41 power mix, as the SEP does not include a breakdown of thermal generation. But gas-fed output is expected to take up the majority share, given that gas has already outpaced coal in power generation and Tokyo has pledged to phase out inefficient coal-fired plants by 2030. By Motoko Hasegawa and Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria


17/02/25
News
17/02/25

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria

Munich, 17 February (Argus) — The EU will meet on 24 February to discuss lifting sanctions on Syria, EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said on Sunday. But internal European politics and concerns raised by Greece and Cyprus over Turkey's growing influence in the region could slow the process. Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Kallas said the prospect of lifting sanctions on Syria "is looking promising". The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to meet on 24 February to discuss Syria and other issues affecting the Middle East. France on 14 February convened an international conference on Syria in Paris, bringing together representatives from G7 nations, the EU, the UN, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The parties issued a final statement calling for support of Syria's political transition, but the US did not join that statement. US sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus that the issues raised in the statement are things Washington has not decided on, since US president Donald Trump's administration is still formulating its policy regarding Syria. Another source with knowledge of ongoing European talks on Syria said Greece and Cyprus are more reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria. Any EU action will have to be agreed upon by all of the bloc's members. Both countries are leery of ties between Turkey and the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant faction in the new Syrian government. Greece and Cyprus are worried about an oversized Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December. Sanctions remain one of the biggest obstacles to Syria's recovery. Damascus has been struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders largely because of those sanctions. Shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there over concerns tankers being sanctioned or stranded. Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which may have narrowed the pool for bidding. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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China's CNOOC starts output at Brazil Buzios7 oil field


17/02/25
News
17/02/25

China's CNOOC starts output at Brazil Buzios7 oil field

San Francisco, 16 February (Argus) — China's state-controlled CNOOC has started output at the Buzios7 oil field offshore Brazil's Santos basin, the firm announced today. CNOOC has a 7.34pc interest in the project while Brazil's state-controlled Petrobras, which operates the field, holds 88.99pc, with the remaining 3.67pc owned by China's state-controlled CNPC Exploration and Development (CNODC). The Buzios oil field is expected to commission a total of 11 projects by 2027 with total output expected to reach 1.5mn b/d by then, although its production capacity totals up to 2mn b/d, CNOOC said earlier this year. The latest production at Buzios7 will bring the output of the Buzios oil field up to 1mn b/d in the second half of 2025, CNOOC said. Buzios7 is located at a water depth of 1,900-2,200m and is also the sixth project commissioned from the oil field. The Buzios7 project includes a floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) and subsea production system. The FPSO can produce up to 225,000 bl of crude, process 12mn m³/d of natural gas and store 1.4mn bl of crude. It is also equipped with closed flare to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and heat recovery devices to reduce energy consumption, CNOOC said. CNOOC expects a slightly smaller share of output from overseas projects, or around 31-33pc from 2025-27, from previous expectations of 33-34pc, although it did not provide a breakdown on actual output forecasts. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Lavrov, Rubio discuss US sanctions relief: Russia


16/02/25
News
16/02/25

Lavrov, Rubio discuss US sanctions relief: Russia

Washington, 15 February (Argus) — Russia and the US have agreed to hold talks aimed at removing US sanctions against Russia, the Russian foreign ministry said today. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio have "agreed to maintain an open channel of communication to address longstanding issues in Russian-American relations", the Russian foreign ministry said. "Their goal is to remove unilateral barriers inherited from the previous US administration that have hindered mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment cooperation," the ministry said. The State Department did not provide a detailed readout of the Lavrov-Rubio phone conversation, held today. "The secretary re-affirmed President [Donald] Trump's commitment to finding an end to the conflict in Ukraine," the State Department said. "In addition, they discussed the opportunity to potentially work together on a number of other bilateral issues." Trump has signaled readiness to end the war in Ukraine on Russia's terms and to cut back on Nato commitments for European security. But he and his administration have provided mixed messages on the future of US sanctions against Russia, imposed under former presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden and during Trump's first term. Trump's administration has left in place sanctions imposed by Biden in January, which for the first time would affect Russia's ability to export crude and refined products via tankers. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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